Usefulness of Monetary Aggregates Versus Interest Rates in Monetary Policy Formulations in Turkey
Usefulness of Monetary Aggregates Versus Interest Rates in Monetary Policy Formulations in Turkey
Türkiye, 1980 yılından başlayarak, yeni kalkınma stratejisi, çerçevesinde ekonomi politikalarının etkin bir biçimde uygulanabilmesi için, gerekli kurumları ve piyasaları oluşturmaya başladı. Bu yeni kurum ve piyasalar ise, doğal olarak, ekonomi politikalarının araçlarını ve etki alanlarını değiştirmeye başladı. Özellikle para otoriteleri, açık bir piyasa ekonomisinde para politikaları uygulama olanağına kavuştular. Bu çalışma, 1990—2005 arası döneme ait verilerden hareketle, basit bir vektör otoregresyon (VAR) analizi çerçevesinde Türkiye'de çıktı ve enflasyonun değişkenliğinin açıklanmasında faiz oranları ve parasal büyüklüklerin göreli önemlerini araştırmaktadır. VAR analizi sonuçları faiz oranlarının parasal büyüklüklere göre çıktının değişkenliğini açıklamada daha önemli bir role sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Enflasyonun değişkenliğini açıklamada ise en dar tanımlı para arzı olan "dolaşımdaki para " önemli bir açıklama gücüne sahiptir.
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