Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Beşeri Sermaye ve Bilgi Sermayesi Birikimine Dayalı Bir İçsel Büyüme Modeli
Bu çalısmanın amacı Türkiye ekonomisinin dinamiklerinin orta-uzun dönemde izlenmesine olanak sağlayacak bir içsel büyüme modeli kurgulamaktır. Model, büyümenin kaynaklarını, beseri sermaye birikimi ve bilgi sermayesi (Ar-Ge) birikimini içsel olarak çözmek üzere olusturulmustur. Model çalısmasının temel vurgusu kamunun eğitim ve bilgi sermayesi yatırım harcamalarıyla, özel sermaye grupları tarafından yürütülen bilgi sermayesi ve arastırma/gelistirme yatırım davranısları arasındaki tamamlayıcılık iliskisine dayanmaktadır. Böylece Türkiye ekonomisinin büyüme dinamiklerini ayrıstırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Model yardımıyla su soruya somut yanıtlar aranmıstır: bütçe kısıtı altında hareket eden kamu idaresi, sermaye birikimini ve iktisadi büyümeyi artırmaya yönelik olarak öncelikle hangi aktiviteye destek sağlamalıdır: beseri sermaye maliyetlerinin desteklenmesi mi, yoksa Ar-Ge yatırım maliyetlerinin desteklenmesi mi? Model bulgularına göre devlet desteğinin sadece eğitim harcamalarını tesvik etme stratejisi, ulusal gelirde ilk basta olumlu bir etki yaratmakta, ancak bu etki uzun dönemde zayıflamaktadır. Salt eğitim yatırımlarının tesvik edilmesine dayalı bir kamu tesvik programından beklenen olumlu sonuçların ortauzun dönemde zayıflamasının tespiti modelin en önemli bulgusu olarak göze
çarpmaktadır. Bu gözlemler altında, devlet kaynak destekleme stratejisi kısaorta dönemde eğitim tesvikleriyle olusturulurken, orta-uzun dönemde Ar-Ge yatırımlarının özendirilmesiyle birlestirilerek hibrid bir programın amaçlanması daha uygun gözükmektedir.
Anahtar Kelimeler:
içsel büyüme, beseri sermaye, Ar-Ge, genel denge, Türkiye ekonomisi;, kamu eğitim ve Ar-Ge politikaları
An Applied Endogenous Growth Model with Human and Knowledge Capital Accumulation for the Turkish Economy
The main objective of this research is to analyze and assess the interactions among knowledge-driven growth, acquisition of human capital, and strategic public policymaking for the Turkish economy within the context of a general equilibrium model. This model aims to investigate those policies that are considered
to foster the development of human capital (such as investments in education) and enhance total factor productivity through direct investments in fixed capital and innovation (such as subsidies for R&D activities). Through this model, we seek answers to the following question: for a government with significant budgetary constraints, which type of public subsidization policies are more conducive to enhancing economic growth and capital accumulation: promotion of human capital formation through subsidies to education, or promotion of new R&D advances through subsidies for R&D activities? According to the model findings, a single-focus strategy of subsidizing only the education sector in order to promote human capital formation falls short of achieving desirable growth in the medium to long run. In fact, the growth and welfare results will be disappointingly weak unless increased human capital leads to a rise in the number of research personnel employed in
the R&D sector. That being the case, it can be argued that public policy should be directed toward R&D promotion in the medium to long term, to complement an emphasis on education that is aimed at sustaining human capital formation.
Keywords:
Endogenous growth, human capital, R&D, general equilibrium, Turkish economy, public policy for education and R&D,
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- ISSN: 2146-6173
- Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 3 Sayı
- Başlangıç: 2012
- Yayıncı: Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Vakfı
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