Size and Progression of the Shadow Economies of Turkey and Other OECD Countries from 2003 to 2013: Some New Facts

In this paper, the main focus is on the definition, measurement methods, and causal factors of the shadow economy in OECD countries. The greatest influence on the shadow economy is tax policies and state regulation. Furthermore, an appreciation of the overall burden of the state (taxes and regulations) and the general situation in the labor market, including levels of self-employment and unemployment, is crucial for an understanding of the dynamics of the shadow economy.

Size and Progression of the Shadow Economies of Turkey and Other OECD Countries from 2003 to 2013: Some New Facts

In this paper, the main focus is on the definition, measurement methods, and causal factors of the shadow economy in OECD countries. The greatest influence on the shadow economy is tax policies and state regulation. Furthermore, an appreciation of the overall burden of the state (taxes and regulations) and the general situation in the labor market, including levels of self-employment and unemployment, is crucial for an understanding of the dynamics of the shadow economy.

___

  • Alderslade, J., J. Talmage, and Y. Freeman, (2006), “Measuring the Informal Economy: One Neighborhood at a Time”, Discussion Paper, The Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Program, Washington DC., September.
  • Allingham, M.G. and A. Sandmo, (1972), “Income Tax Evasion: A Theoretical Analysis”, Journal of Public Economics 1/3, pp. 323-338.
  • Andreoni, J., B. Erard, and J. Feinstein, (1998), “Tax Compliance”, Journal of Economic Literature 36/4, pp. 818-860.
  • Besim, M. and T. Ekici, (2013), A Small Economy with Large Informality, Discussion Paper, Eastern Mediterranean University, Northern Cyprus.
  • Bhattacharyya, D.K., (1999), “On the Economic Rationale of Estimating the Hidden Economy”, Economic Journal 109/3, pp. 348-359.
  • Blackwell, C., (2010), “A Meta-Analysis of Incentive Effects, In Tax Compliance Experiments”, J. Alm, J. Martinez-Vazquez, and Benno Torgler eds., in Developing an Alternative Framework Explaining Tax Compliance, London: Routledge Publishing Company.
  • Breusch, T., (2005a), “The Canadian Underground Economy: An Examination of Giles and Tedds’, Canadian Tax Journal 53/4, pp. 367-391.
  • Breusch, T., (2005b), “Estimating the Underground Economy Using MIMIC Models”, Working Paper, Canberra, Australia, http://econwpa.wustl.edu/eps/em/papers/0507/0507003.pdf.
  • Brueck, T., J.B. Haisten-DeNew, and K.F. Zimmermann, (2006), “Creating Low-Skilled Jobs by Subsidizing Market-Contracted Household Work”, Applied Economics 38/4, pp. 899-911.
  • Buehn, A., (2012), “The Shadow Economy in German Regions: An Empirical Assessment”, German Economic Review, 13/3, pp. 275-290.
  • Buehn, A. and F. Schneider, (2012), “Size and Development of Tax Evasion in 38 OECD Countries: What do we (not) know?”, CESifo Paper Discussion Series, November, CESifo, University Munich, Munich.
  • Buehn, A., A. Karmann, and F. Schneider, (2009), “Shadow Economy and Do-it-yourself Activities: The German Case”, Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics, 165/4, pp.701-722.
  • Chen, M., (2004), “Rethinking the Informal Economy: Linkages with the Formal Economy and the Formal Regulatory Environment”, Paper presented at the EGDI-WIDR Conference “Unleashing Human Potential: Linking the Informal and Formal Sectors,” Helsinki, Finland.
  • Dell’Anno R., (2003), “Estimating the Shadow Economy in Italy: A Structural Equation Approach”, Working Paper 2003-7, Department of Economics, University of Aarhus.
  • Dell´Anno, R. and F. Schneider, (2004), “The Shadow Economy of Italy and other OECD Countries: What Do We Know?”, Linz, University of Linz, Department of Economics, Discussion Paper, published in the Journal of Public Finance and Public Choice, 2005.
  • Dell’Anno, R. and F. Schneider, (2009), “A Complex Approach to Estimate Shadow Economy: The Structural Equation Modeling”, in: M. Faggnini and T. Looks, eds., Coping with the Complexity of Economics, Berlin: Springer, pp. 110-130.
  • Dixon, H., (1999), “Controversy: On the Hidden Economy, Editorial introduction”, Economic Journal 456/3, pp. 335-337.
  • Dreher, A. and F. Schneider, (2009), “Corruption and the Shadow Economy: An Empirical Analysis”, Public Choice, 144/2, pp. 215-277.
  • Dreher, A., C. Kotsogiannis, and S. McCorriston, (2007), “Corruption around the World: Evidence from a Structural Model”, Journal of Comparative Economics 35/4, pp. 443-466.
  • Dreher, A., C. Kotsogiannis, and S. McCorriston, (2009), “How Do Institutions Affect Corruption and the Shadow Economy?”, International Tax and Public Finance, 16/4, pp. 773-796.
  • Eck, R. van and B. Kazemier, (1988), “Features of the Hidden Economy in the Netherlands”, Review of Income and Wealth 34/3, pp. 251-273.
  • Elgin, C. and O. Öztunali, (2012), “Shadow Economies around the World: Model-Based Estimates”, Discussion Paper, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul.
  • Enste, D. and F. Schneider,(2006), “Umfang und Entwicklung der Schattenwirtschaft in 145 Ländern”, in: F. Schneider and D. Enste eds., Jahrbuch Schattenwirtschaft 2006/07. Zum Spannungsfeld von Poltik und Ökonomie, LIT Verlag, Berlin, pp. 55-80.
  • European Commission, (2007), Undeclared Work in the European Union, Special Eurobarometer Report, Brussels. Available at http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_284_en.pdf (accessed on 13 October 2009).
  • Feige, E.L., (ed.) (1989), The Underground Economies. Tax Evasion and Information Distortion, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  • Feige, E.L., (1994), The Underground Economy and the Currency Enigma, Supplement to Public Finance/Finances Publiques 49, pp. 119-136.
  • Feld, L.P. and B.S. Frey, (2002a), “Trust Breeds Trust: How Taxpayers are Treated”, Economics of Governments 3, pp. 87-99.
  • Feld, L.P. and B.S. Frey, (2002b), “The Tax Authority and the Taxpayer: An Exploratory Analysis”, Discussion Paper, University of Zurich.
  • Feld, L.P. and B.S. Frey, (2007), “Tax Compliance as the Result of a Psychological Tax Contract: The Role of Incentives and Responsive Regulation”, Law and Policy 29/1, pp. 102-120.
  • Feld, L.P. and C. Larsen, (2005), Black Activities in Germany in 2001 and 2004: A Comparison Based on Survey Data, Study No. 12, The Rockwool Foundation Research Unit, Copenhagen.
  • Feld, L.P. and C. Larsen, (2008), “ ‘Black” Activities Low in Germany in 2006”, News from the Rockwool Foundation Research Unit, March, pp. 1-12.
  • Feld, L.P. and C. Larsen, (2009), Undeclared Work in Germany 2001-2007 – Impact of Deterrence, Tax Policy, and Social Norms: An Analysis Based on Survey Data, Springer, Berlin et al.
  • Feld, L.P. and F. Schneider, (2010), “Survey on the Shadow Economy and Undeclared Earnings in OECD Countries”, German Economic Review 11/2, pp.109-149.
  • Feld, L.P., A. Schmidt, and F. Schneider, (2007), “Tax Evasion, Black Activities, and Deterrence in Germany: An Institutional and Empirical Perspective”, Discussion Paper, Department of Economics, University of Heidelberg, Germany.
  • Flaming, D., B. Hayolamak, and P. Jossart, (2005), Hopeful Workers, Marginal Jobs: LA’s Off-The-Books Labor Force, Economic Roundtable, Los Angeles, CA,.
  • Fleming, M.H., Roman, J., and G. Farrel, (2000), “The Shadow Economy”, Journal of International Affairs, Spring, No. 53/2, pp. 64-89.
  • Frey, B.S., (1997), Not Just for the Money: An Economic Theory of Personal Motivation, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.
  • Frey, B.S. and W. Pommerehne, (1984), “The Hidden Economy: State and Prospect for Measurement”, Review of Income and Wealth 30/1, pp. 1-23.
  • Friedman, E., S. Johnson, D. Kaufmann, and P. Zoido-Lobatón, (2000), “Dodging the Grabbing Hand: The Determinants of Unofficial Activity in 69 Countries”, Journal of Public Economics 76/4, pp. 459-493.
  • Giles, D.E.A., (1999a), “Measuring the Hidden Economy: Implications for Econometric Modeling”, Economic Journal 109/3, pp. 370-380.
  • Giles, D.E.A., (1999b), “Modeling the Hidden Economy in the Tax Gap in New Zealand”, Empirical Economics 24/ 4, pp. 621-640.
  • Giles, D.E.A., (1999c), “The Rise and Fall of the New Zealand Underground Economy: Are the Reasons Symmetric?”, Applied Economic Letters 6, 185-189.
  • Giles, D.E.A. and L.M. Tedds, (2002), “Taxes and the Canadian Underground Economy”, Canadian Tax Paper No. 106, Canadian Tax Foundation, Toronto.
  • Haigner, S., S. Jenewein, F. Schneider, and F. Wakolbinger, (2011), “Dissatisfaction, Fear, and Annoyance: Driving Forces of Informal Labor Supply and Demand”, Discussion Paper, Department of Economics, University of Linz, Austria. Paper presented at the European Public Choice Meeting, Rennes, April 28-May 1.
  • Herwartz, H., F. Schneider, and E. Tafenau, (2009), “One Share Fits It All? Regional Variation in the Shadow Economy in the EU Regions”, Discussion Paper, Universities of Linz and Kiel.
  • Isachsen, A.J. and S. Strøm, (1985), “The Size and Growth of the Hidden Economy in Norway”, Review of Income and Wealth 31/1, pp. 21-38.
  • Johnson, S., D. Kaufmann, and A. Shleifer, (1997), “The Unofficial Economy in Transition”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity No. 2, pp. 159-221.
  • Johnson, S., D. Kaufmann, and P. Zoido-Lobatón, (1998a), “Regulatory Discretion and the Unofficial Economy”, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 88 (2), pp. 387-392.
  • Johnson, S., D. Kaufmann, and P. Zoido-Lobatón, (1998b), “Corruption, Public Finances, and the Unofficial Economy”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series No. 2169, The World Bank, Washington, DC.
  • Kanniainen, V., J. Pääkönen, and F. Schneider, (2004), “Fiscal and Ethical Determinants of Shadow Economy: Theory and Evidence”, Discussion Paper, Department of Economics, University of Linz, Austria.
  • Karmann, A., (1986), “Monetäre Ansätze zur Erfassung der Schattenwirtschaft: Ein Vergleich verschiedener Messansätze”, Kredit und Kapital 19, pp. 233-247.
  • Karmann, A., (1990), “Schattenwirtschaft und ihre Ursachen: Eine empirische Analyse zur Schwarzwirtschaft und Selbstversorgung in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland”, Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften (ZWS) 110, pp. 185-206.
  • Kastlunger, B., E. Kirchler, L. Mittore, and J. Pitters, (2009), “Sequences of Audits, Tax Compliance, and Tax-Paying Strategies”, Journal of Economic Psychology 30/4, pp. 405-418.
  • Kazemier, B., (2005a), “The Underground Economy: A Survey of Methods and Estimates”, Discussion Paper, Statistics Netherlands, Voorburg, Netherlands.
  • Kazemier, B., (2005b), “Monitoring the Underground Labor Market: What Surveys Can Do”, Discussion Paper, Statistics Netherlands, Voorburg, Netherlands.
  • Kazemir, B., (2006) “Monitoring the Underground Economy: A Survey of Methods and Estimates”, in: F. Schneider and D. Enste, eds., Jahrbuch Schattenwirtschaft 2006/07. Zum Spannungsfeld von Politik und Ökonomie, LIT Verlag, Berlin, pp. 11-53.
  • Kirchler, E., (2007), The Economic Psychology of Tax Behavior, Cambridge (UK) University Press, Cambridge.
  • Kirchler, E., E. Hoelzl, and I. Wahl, (2007), “Enforcers versus Voluntary Tax Compliance: The ”Slippery Slope” Framework”, Journal of Economic Psychology 29/2, pp. 210-225.
  • Kirchler, E., B. Maciejovsky, and F. Schneider, (2003) “Everyday Representations of Tax Avoidance, Tax Evasion, and Tax Flight: Do Legal Differences Matter?”, Journal of Economic Psychology 24/4, pp. 535-553.
  • Kopp, R.J., W.W. Pommerehne, and N. Schwarz, (1997), Determining the Value of Non-Marketed Goods: Economic, Psychological, and Policy Relevant Aspects of Contingent Valuation Methods, Boston, (US), Kluwer Academic Publishing Company.
  • Körner, M., H. Strotmann, L.P. Feld, and F. Schneider, (2006), Steuermoral– Das Spannungsfeld von Freiwilligkeit der Steuerhinterziehung und Regelverstoß durch Steuerhinterzieung, IAW Forschungsbereicht Nr. 64, Tübingen.
  • Kucera, D. and L. Roncolato, (2008), “Informal Employment: Two Contested Policy Issues”, International Labor Review 147/3, pp. 321-348.
  • Lippert, O. and M. Walker (eds.), (1997), The Underground Economy: Global Evidences of its Size and Impact, The Frazer Institute, Vancouver, B.C.
  • Loayza, N.V., A.M. Oviedo, and L. Servén, (2005a), “The Impact of Regulation on Growth and Informality: Cross-Country Evidence”, World Bank, Policy Research Paper WPS3623, Washington, DC.
  • Loayza, N.V., A.M. Oviedo, and L. Servén, (2005b), “Regulation and Firm Dynamics”, Discussion Paper, World Bank, Washington DC.
  • Marcelli, E.A., (2004), “Unauthorized Mexican Immigration, the Labor and other Lower-Wage Informal Employment in California”, Regional Studies 38/1, pp. 1-13.
  • Marcelli, E.A., M. Pastor Jr., and P.M. Joassart, (1999), “Estimating the Effects of Informal Economic Activity: Evidence from Los Angeles County”, Journal of Economic Issues 33, pp. 579-607.
  • Merz, J. and K.G. Wolff, (1993), “The Shadow Economy: Illicit Work and Household Production–A Micro-analysis of West Germany”, Review of Income and Wealth 39/2, pp. 177-194.
  • Mummert, A. and F. Schneider, (2001), “The German Shadow Economy: Parted in a United Germany?”, Finanzarchiv 58, pp. 260-285. Pedersen, S., (2003), The Shadow Economy in Germany, Great Britain, and Scandinavia: A Measurement Based on Questionnaire Service, Study No. 10, The Rockwool Foundation Research Unit, Copenhagen.
  • Posner, E.A. (2000a), Law and Social Norms, Harvard University Press, Cambridge.
  • Posner E.A., (2000b), Law and Social Norms: The Case of Tax Compliance, Virginia Law Review 86/6, pp. 1781-1820.
  • Renooy et al., (2004), Undeclared Work in an Enlarged Union: An Analysis of Shadow Work: An In-depth Study of Specific Items, Brussels, European Commission.
  • Schneider, F., (1986), “Estimating the Size of the Danish Shadow Economy Using the Currency-Demand Approach: An Attempt”, Scandinavian Journal of Economics 88/4, pp. 643-668.
  • Schneider, F., (1994a), “Measuring the Size and Development of the Shadow Economy. Can the Causes Be Found and the Obstacles Be Overcome?” in: H. Brandstaetter and W. Güth, eds., Essays on Economic Psychology, Springer, Berlin et al., pp. 193-212.
  • Schneider, F.,(1994b), Determinanten der Steuerhinterziehung der Schwarzarbeit im internationalen Vergleich, in: C. Smekal and E.
  • Theurl,eds., Stand und Entwicklung der Finanzpsychologie, Nomos, Baden-Baden, pp. 247-288.
  • Schneider, F., (1994c), “Can the Shadow Economy Be Reduced Through Major Tax Reforms? An Empirical Investigation for Austria”, Supplement to Public Finance/Finances Publiques 49, pp. 137-152.
  • Schneider, F., (1997), “The Shadow Economies of Western Europe”, Economic Affairs 17, pp. 42-48.
  • Schneider, F., (1998a), “Further Empirical Results of the Size of the Shadow Economy of 17 OECD Countries Over Time”, Discussion Paper, Department of Economics, University of Linz, Austria.
  • Schneider, F., (1998b), Stellt das Anwachsen der Schwarzarbeit eine wirtschaftspolitische Herausforderung dar? Einige Gedanken aus volkswirtschaftlicher Sicht. Mitteilungen des Instituts für angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW) I/98, pp. 4-13.
  • Schneider, F. (1999), Ist Schwarzarbeit ein Volkssport geworden? Ein Internationale Vergleich des Ausmaßes der Schwarzarbeit von 1970-97, in: S. Lamnek and J. Luedtke, eds., Der Sozialstaat zwischen Markt und Hedeonismus, Leske und Budrich, Opladen, pp. 126-161.
  • Schneider, F., (2000), The Increase of the Size of the Shadow Economy of 18 OECD Countries: Some Preliminary Explanations, paper presented at the Annual Public Choice Meeting, March 10-12, Charleston, S.C.
  • Schneider, F., (2001), Die Schattenwirtschaft–Tatbestand, Ursachen, Auswirkungen, in: A. Rauscher, ed., Die Arbeitswelt im Wandel, J.P. Bachem, Köln, pp. 127-143.
  • Schneider, F., (2003), Shadow Economy, in: C.K. Rowley and F. Schneider, eds., Encyclopedia of Public Choice, Vol. II, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp. 286-296.
  • Schneider, F., (2005), “Shadow Economies around the World: What Do We Really Know?”, European Journal of Political Economy 21/4, pp. 598-642.
  • Schneider, F., (2006), Shadow Economies and Corruption All Over the World: What Do We Really Know?, Universität Linz: Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Diskussionspapier, August 2006.
  • Schneider, F., (2009), “Size and Development of the Shadow Economy in Germany, Austria, and Other OECD Countries: Some Preliminary Findings”, Revue Economique 60, pp. 1079-1116.
  • Schneider, F., (2010), “The Influence of Public Institutions on the Shadow Economy: An Empirical Investigation for OECD Countries”, European Journal of Law and Economics, 6/3, pp. 441-468.
  • Schneider, F., (ed.), (2011), Handbook on the Shadow Economy, Cheltenham (UK), Edward Elgar Publishing Company.
  • Schneider, F. and A. Buehn, (2013), “Shadow Economies in Highly Developed OECD Countries: What Are the Driving Forces?”, IZA Discussion Paper No. 6891, Institute for the Study of Labor, University of Bonn, 2012.
  • Schneider, F. and D. Enste, (2000a), Schattenwirtschaft und Schwarzarbeit– Umfang, Ursachen, Wirkungen, und wirtschaftspolitische Empfehlungen, Oldenbourg, München.
  • Schneider, F. and D. Enste, (2000b), “Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences”, Journal of Economic Literature 38/1, pp. 73-110.
  • Schneider, F. and D. Enste, (2002), The Shadow Economy: Theoretical Approaches, Empirical Studies, and Political Implications, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (UK).
  • Schneider, F. and D. Enste (eds.), (2006), Jahrbuch Schattenwirtschaft 2006/07. Zum Spannungsfeld von Poltik und Ökonomie, LIT Verlag, Berlin.
  • Schneider, F. and D. Enste, (2013), The Shadow Economy: Theoretical Approaches, Empirical Studies, and Political Implications, Cambridge (UK): Cambridge University Press, 2013.
  • Smith, P., (1994), “Assessing the Size of the Underground Economy: The Canadian Statistical Perspectives”, Canadian Economic Observer, Catalogue No. 11-010, pp. 16-33.
  • Tafenau, Egle, Helmut Herwartz, and Friedrich Schneider, (2010), “Regional Estimates for the Shadow Economy in Europe”, International Economic Journal, 24/4, pp. 629-636.
  • Tanzi, V., (1999), “Uses and Abuses of Estimates of the Underground Economy”, Economic Journal 109/3, pp. 338-347.
  • Teobaldelli, D., (2011), “Federalism and the Shadow Economy”, Public Choice (2011) 146/3, pp. 269-269.
  • Teobaldelli, D. and F. Schneider, (2012), “Beyond the veil of ignorance: The influence of direct democracy on the shadow economy”, CESifo Working Paper MO3749, University of Munich.
  • Thomas, J.J., (1992), Informal Economic Activity, Harvester/Weatsheaf, New York et al.
  • Thomas, J.J., (1999), “Quantifying the Black Economy: 'Measurement Without Theory' Yet Again?”, Economic Journal 109, pp. 381-389.
  • Torgler, B., (2002), “Speaking to Theorists and Searching for Facts: Tax Morale and Tax Compliance in Experiments”, Journal of Economic Survey 16/4, pp. 657-683.
  • Torgler, B., (2007), Tax Compliance and Tax Morale: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham (UK), Blackwell (2009), A Meta-Analysis of Incentive Effects in Tax-Compliance Experiments in J. Alm, J. Martinez, Vazquez, and B. Torgler (eds.). Developing Alternative Frameworks Explaining Tax Compliance, London: Routledge Publishing Company, pp. 164-181. Torgler, B. and F. Schneider, (2009), “The Impact of Tax Morale and Institutional Quality on the Shadow Economy”, Journal of Economic Psychology 30/3, pp. 228-245.
  • Williams, C.C. and J. Windebank, (1998), Informal Employment in the Advanced Economies: Implication, for Work and Welfare, Routledge, London.
  • Williams, C.C. and J. Windebank, (2001a), “Beyond Profit-Motivated Exchange: Some Lessons from the Study of Paid Informal Work”, European Urban and Regional Studies 8, pp. 49-61.
  • Williams, C.C. and J. Windebank, (2001b), “Reconceptualizing Paid Informal Exchange: Some Lessons from English Cities”, Environment and Planning A 33, pp. 121-140.