How Should We Interpret the Outcome of the June 2015 Parliamentary Election in Turkey?

The outcome of the June 7, 2015 parliamentary election in Turkey is analyzed. In particular, the causes of the drop in the vote share of the ruling Justice and Development Party are identified, and their effects are measured with the help of a vote equation. This model is fitted to data covering the 1951-2014 period and considers the credit or blame the government gets due to economic conditions, the advantages and disadvantages of incumbency, political inertia, and realignments. It also takes into account strategic voting, which is caused by election thresholds and the electorate’s desire to balance the power of the government. A comparison of the prediction obtained from this equation with the actual realization is utilized to estimate the impact of the decision by the Peoples’ Democratic Party to participate in the election officially, rather than through independent candidates.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Voter behavior, economic voting, strategic voting, election forecasting, AKP, Turkey.

How Should We Interpret the Outcome of the June 2015 Parliamentary Election in Turkey?

Keywords:

Voter behavior, economic voting, strategic voting, election forecasting, AKP, Turkey.,

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