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Hisse Senedi Piyasası İle Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği Arasındaki İlişki: Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Bazı Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Küresel sistem içerisinde meydana gelen savaş, kriz, siyasi seçim gibi faktörler ulusal ve uluslararası piyasalarda belirsizlikler yaratmaktadır. Ortaya çıkan belirsizlikler, makroekonomik büyüklüklere ilişkin olarak ülkelerin alacağı kararlar üzerinde önemli etkiler yaratmakta ve ekonomi politikası açısından ülkeleri belirsizliğe sürükleyebilmektedir. Belirsizlik ortamında yatırımcıların ekonomiye güveni azalabilmekte ve bu durumdan hisse senedi piyasaları da olumsuz etkilenebilmektedir. Bu çalışmada ekonomi politikasında yaşanan belirsizlikler ile hisse senedi piyasaları arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu doğrultuda gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan bazı ülkelerde (ABD, Avustralya, Belçika, Brezilya, Çin, Hindistan, Hong Kong, İngiltere, İrlanda, Japonya, Kanada, Meksika, Pakistan, Rusya, Şili) Ağustos 2010 – Şubat 2022 dönemini kapsayan aylık veriler ve panel nedensellik analizi kullanılarak bir araştırma yapılmıştır. Yatay kesit bağımlılığını ve heterojenliği dikkate alan panel nedensellik analizi; Japonya’da ekonomik politika belirsizliğinin hisse senedi piyasasını etkilediğini; ABD, Avustralya, Brezilya, İngiltere, İrlanda, Meksika, Pakistan’da ise hisse senedi piyasasının ekonomik politika belirsizliğini etkilediğini ve Kanada’da ise her iki sektörün de birbirini etkilediğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Hisse Senedi Piyasası, Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği, Panel Nedensellik Analizi

The Relationship between the Stock Markets and Economic Policy Uncertainty: An Application on Some Developed and Developing Countries

Factors such as war, crisis, and political election occurring in the global system create uncertainties in national and international markets. Emerging uncertainties have important effects on the decisions to be taken by countries regarding macroeconomic aggregates and may lead countries to uncertainty in terms of economic policy. In an environment of uncertainty, investors' confidence in the economy may decrease and stock markets may be adversely affected by this situation. In this study, it is aimed to examine the relationship between the economic policy uncertainty and stock markets. Accordingly, a study was conducted using panel causality analysis and monthly data covering the period from August 2010 to February 2022 in some developed and developing countries (USA, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, China, India, Hong Kong, England, Ireland, Japan, Canada, Mexico, Pakistan, Russia, Chile). Panel causality analysis, which considers cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity, shows that economic policy uncertainty affects the stock market in Japan, the stock market affects the economic policy uncertainty in the USA, Australia, Brazil, England, Ireland, Mexico, Pakistan, and both sectors affect each other in Canada.

Keywords:

Stock Market, Economic Policy Uncertainty, Panel Causality Analysis,

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