İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİNİN TARIMSAL ÜRETİM VE GIDA GÜVENLİĞİNE ETKİLERİ: BİLİMSEL BİR DEĞERLENDİRME

Bu değerlendirme çalışmasında, önce Dünya’da ve Türkiye’de gözlenen iklim değişikliği ve değişkenliğine ilişkin hakemli çalışmaların başlıca bulgu ve sonuçlarının alansal ve zamansal bir değerlendirmesi yapılmıştır. Sonra, bu alanda özellikle son 10 yılda yayımlanmış hakemli lite-ratür ve Hükümetlerarası İklim Değişikliği Paneli’nin (IPCC) güncel değerlendirme çalışmala-rından yararlanarak, iklim değişikliğinin tarımsal üretim ve gıda güvenliğine etkileri -başta ürün rekolteleri üzerindeki etkileri olmak üzere- çeşitli yönleriyle bilimsel olarak değerlendirilmiştir. İklim değişikliğinin tarımsal ürün ve karasal gıda üretimine olan etkileri Dünya’nın birçok bölgesinde belirgin bir biçimde gözlenmektedir. İklim değişikliği ve değişkenliğinin negatif etkileri, pozitif etkilerinden daha yaygındır. Gözlenen iklim değişmelerine ek olarak, iklim model benzeşimleri, genel olarak alt troposfer ve yüzey hava sıcaklıklarında öngörülen artış eğilimi, artan pozitif ışınımsal zorlama ve hızlanan ve/ya da kuvvetlenen hidrolojik döngü ile bağlantılı olarak, 21. yüzyılda Dünya’nın birçok bölgesinde aşırı hava ve iklim olaylarının sık-lık ve şiddetinde artışlar olabileceğini göstermektedir. Örneğin, artan sıcak hava dalgaları, taş-kınlar ve kuraklıklar gibi ekstrem hava ve iklim olayları ve afetleri, gıda temininin kararlılığını kesintiye uğratacaktır. Gıda ve su güvenliği ile iklim değişikliği arasındaki yakın ilişki nedeniyle, iklim değişikliği, büyük olasılıkla gıda güvenliğinin, gıdanın varlığı, erişim, tüketim ve sürdürülebilirliğinden oluşan dört boyutunu da etkileyecektir. Küresel iklim değişikliğinin tarıma etkilerinin benzeti-mini yapan en kapsamlı model çalışmalarından birisinde, her şey bugünkü gibi senaryosuna dayanarak, iklim değişikliğinin 2080 yılına kadar potansiyel küresel tarımsal üretim çıktısını % 3.2’den daha fazla azaltacağı öngörülmüştür. Bazı kapsamlı çalışmalar ise, karbondioksit (CO2) gübrelemesinin etkisine ilişkin kabullere ve salım senaryolarına bağlı olarak, tüm bölgele-rin ürün rekoltesinde önemli artış ve azalışlarla karşılaşabileceğini göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Tarım, İklim değişikliği, Gıda güvenliği, Aşırı hava ve iklim olayları, İklim modeli, Karbondioksit gübrelemesi

Impacts of climate change on food security and agricultural production: A scientific review

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