Eski Sovyet Ülkelerinde Cari Hesap Dengesi Belirleyicileri ve Petrol Zenginliğinin Neden Olduğu Farklılıklar

Bu çalışmada eski Sovyetler Birliği ülkelerinde cari hesap dengesinin temel belirleyicilerinin araştırılması amaçlanmıştır.Bu amaçla, birlik üyesi on ülkenin, petrol-doğalgaz zenginliği bakımından farklı alt gruplarının 1995-2010 dönemine ait yıllık verileri ve panel sabit etkiler yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Tahmin sonuçları, tüm ülke gruplarında yatırım artışının, finansal gelişmenin ve genç nüfus oranı artışının cari hesap dengesini negatif yönde etkilediğine ilişkin bulgular sunmaktadır. Bulgular petrol ve doğalgaz bakımından zengin olmayan ülkelerde cari hesap dengesinin atalete ve yüksek sürdürülebilirlik özelliğine sahip olduğunu desteklemektedir. Fakat petrol ve doğalgaz bakımından zengin ülkeler için, enerji fiyatı dalgalanmalarının etkisini destekler şekilde cari hesap dengesi ataleti ve sürdürülebilirliği söz konusu değildir. Bu ülkelerde, ticaret haddinde ve doğal kaynak gelirlerindeki değişmeler cari hesap dengesi değişmelerinin en önemli belirleyicisidir. Bunların yanı sıra, ikiz açıklar hipotezi doğal kaynak bakımından zengin olmayan ülkeler için desteklenmektedir. Ayrıca, tahmin sonuçları, araştırma konusu ülkelerde cari hesap dengesinin konjonktür karşıtı özellikler taşımadığını ve gelişmenin aşamaları hipotezinin geçerli olmadığını gösterir

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Cari hesap dengesi belirleyicileri, eski Sovyetler Birliği ülkeleri, petrol zenginliği, sabit etkiler yöntemi

Determinants of Current Account Balance in Former Soviet Countries and Diff erences Caused by Oil Wealth

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the basic determinants of current account balance of former Soviet Union member countries in the years of 1995 to 2010. Empirical analysis base on panel data fi xed eff ect models that established for ten former union member countries and diff erent subgroups in terms of oil and natural gas wealth. The observed fi ndings for all country groups suggest that investment increase, fi nancial development and increase of young age dependency ratio deteriorate current account balance. Conclusions show that current account balance has inertia and high sustainability in non oil reach countries. However, in countries rich in oil and naturalgas, there is not such relation refl ecting high volatility of energy prices. In oil rich countries, changes in terms of trade and natural resource revenues are the most important determinants of current account variations. In addition, the twin defi cits hypothesis is supported for non oil rich countries. Moreover, estimation results not support cyclical properties and development stages hypothesis of current account balance in countries included in this study

Keywords:

Current account balance determinants, former Soviet Union countries, oil wealth, fi xed eff ect model,

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