Dünyada Son 20 Yılda Meydana Gelen Uçak Kazalarının İncelenmesi

Hava taşımacılığı uzun mesafeli yolculuklar için çok tercih edilen bir ulaşım türüdür. Bu tip ulaşım, özellikle son 20 yılda teknolojinin gelişmesiyle büyük ilerleme kaydetmiştir. Bu ulaşım türünün hızlı ve güvenli olması sayesinde yolcu kapasitesi giderek artmaktadır. Bu duruma rağmen, bir uçak kazası meydana gelmesi durumunda ölüm oranı oldukça yüksektir. Bu sebeple yüzlerce insan tek bir kazada ölebilmektedir. Bu çalışmada, son 20 yılda dünyada meydana gelen uçak kazaları incelenmiştir. Kaza sayıları, ölüm sayıları ve kazaların uçuşun hangi aşamasında meydana geldiğini içeren veriler kullanılmıştır. Bu veriler veri madenciliği algoritmaları olan çok katmanlı algılayıcı, k en yakın komşuluk, Naive Bayes, J48 ve regresyon yöntemleri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Buna göre, beş farklı algoritmadan, hata ölçeği ve performans analizi için en iyi sonuçları veren algoritmanın J48 olduğu belirlenmiştir. Bu algoritma kullanılarak uçak kazalarının meydana gelme aşamaları daha detaylı halde sınıflandırılmıştır. Yapılan bu çalışma sayesinde benzer veri kümelerinin sınıflandırma işlemi için J48 algoritmasının tercih edilmesinin daha iyi sonuçlar vereceği ortaya konmuştur. Ayrıca bu çalışmada kazaların meydana geldiği aşamalar daha detaylandırıldığı için problemlerin merkezine inme adına önemli fayda sağlamaktadır. Bu doğrultuda politika yapıcılar kazaların meydana geldiği aşamaları dikkate alarak çalışmalar yürütürse kazaları azaltabilmek mümkündür.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Uçak kazaları, Hava taşımacılığı, Kaza analizi

Examination of Aircraft Accidents That Occurred in the Last 20 Years in the World

Air transportation is a very preferred type of transportation for long-distance trips. This type of transportation has made great progress, especially in the last 20 years with the development of technology. Thanks to its fast and safe, passenger capacity is gradually increasing. Despite this situation, the mortality rate is quite high in the case of an aircraft accident. For this reason, hundreds of people can die in a single accident. In this study, aircraft accidents that occurred in the last 20 years in the world were examined. The data including the number of accidents, the number of deaths and the process of the flight where the accidents occurred were used. These data were analyzed using data mining algorithms such as multi-layer perceptron, k nearest neighborhood, Naive Bayes, J48 and regression methods. Accordingly, it was determined that the algorithm that gives the best results for error scale and performance analysis among five different algorithms is J48. Using this algorithm, the occurrence flight phase of aircraft accidents is classified in more detail. Thanks to this study, it has been revealed that choosing the J48 algorithm for the classification of similar data sets will give better results. Also, this study provides significant benefits in terms of getting to the center of the problems, as the stages of accidents are more detailed. Accordingly, it is possible to reduce accidents if policy makers carry out studies taking into account the stages in which accidents occur.

Keywords:

Aircraft accidents, Accident analysis, Air transportation,

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