Türkiye ödemeler bilançosu dengesinin sürdürülebilirği:sınır testi yaklaşımı

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de ödemeler bilançosu dengesinin sürdürülebilirliği, sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılarak, 1992:M01–2010:M11 dönemi için araştırılmıştır. Çalışmanın ampirik kanıtlarına göre, ödemeler bilançosu gelirleri ile giderleri arasında eş bütünleşme ilişkisinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Kısa dönemde seriler arasında meydana gelen sapmaların uzun dönemde ortadan kalktığı ve uzun dönemde ödemeler bilançosu gelirlerinin, ödemeler bilançosu giderlerini güçlü anlamda desteklediği görülmüştür. Elde edilen sonuçlara dayanarak, Türkiye’ de ödemeler bilançosu dengesinin sürdürülebilir olduğu söylenebilir.

The sustainability of Turkey balance of payments equilibrium:bounds testing approach

In this paper, the sustainability of the balance of payments equilibrium in Turkey has been studied by bounds testing approach using the data between 1992: M01-2010: M11. The empirical evidence of the study suggests that cointegration relationship has been between the balance of payments revenues and expenses. In short-term deviations between the series ceased to exist long-term and long-term revenues to balance of payments, balance of payments costs were supported by the strong sense. Based on these results, it can be said that the balance of payments equilibrium in Turkey is sustainable.

PDF

___

AKAT, A. S. (2004). “Ödemeler Dengesi Yazıları”, İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi, http://akat.bilgi.edu.tr [Erişim:20.01.2011]. BRUNDTLAND REPORT, (1987). “Our Common Future”, United Nations Commission on Environment and Development. CALDERON, C., CHONG A. and ZANFORLIN L. (2001). “Are African Current Account Deficits Different? Stylized Facts, Transitory Shocks And Decomposition Aalysis”, IMF Working Paper, No: WP/01/4 CONNOLY, M. and DA SILVERIA J.D. (1979). “Exchange Market Pressure in Postwar Brazil: An Application of the Girton-Roper Monetary Model”, American Economic Review, Vol: 69, pp. 448-454. EKREN, N. (2002). “Ödemeler bilançosunu yapılandırma politikaları”, Activeline, Aralık. ENDERS, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series, 1 rd edition, Wiley, New York. ENDERS, W. (1996). Rats Handbook for Econometric Time Series, John Willey and Song Inc. GRANGER, C. W. J. and NEWBOLD, P. (1974). “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics, 2 (2): 111-120. GIRTON, R. and D. ROPER (1977). “A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience”, American Economic Review, Vol: 67, pp. 549-558. GUJARATI, D. N. (1999). Basic Econometrics, Mc Graw Hill, Literatür Yayıncılık, 3 rd edition, İstanbul. HAKKIO, C. S. and RUSH, M. (1991). “Is the Budget Defict Too Large?”, Economic Inquiry, pp:429-445. JOHNSTON, J. and DINARDO, J. (1997). Econometric Methods, Fourth Edition, McGraw-Hill Companies, United States. KAMAS, L. and JOYCE, J. P. (1993). “Money, Income and Prices Under Fixed Exchange Rates: Evidence from Causality Tests and VARs”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 15(4): 747-768. KORKMAZ, A. ve Yamak, R. (2007). “Türk Ödemeler Bilançosuna Parasal Bir Yaklaşım: Girton-Roper Modelden Kanıtlar”, VIII. Ulusal Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sempozyumu, İnönü Üniversitesi, 24-25 Mayıs. Malatya. NARAYAN, P. K. and NARAYAN S. (2004). “Estimating Income and Price Elasticities of Imports for Fiji in a Cointegration Framework”, Economic Modelling, Vol. 22, pp: 423-438. PHILLIPS, P.C.B. and PERRON, P. (1988) "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression", Biometrika, 75, 335–346. PERRON, P. (1990). “Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series With a Changing Mean”, Journal of Business&Economic Statistics, 153-162. PESARAN, M., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (2001). “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16: 289-326. QUINTOS, C. E. (1995). “Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, ss. 409–417. RANJAN R. and NACHANE, D. M. (2004). “Analysis of the Capital Account in India's Balance of Payments”, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 39, No. 27, Jul. 3-9, pp. 3031-3044. ROUBINI, N. and Wachtel P. (1998). “Current Account Sustainability In Transition Economies”, NBER Working Paper, 6468. SEYİDOĞLU, H. (2003). Uluslararası İktisat, Güzem Can Yayınları, İstanbul. SHRESTHA, M. B. and CHOWDHURY, K. (2005). “ARDL Approach to Testing the Financial Liberalisation Hypothesis”, University of Wollongong Economics of Working Paper Series, WP 05-15, June. TANG, T. C. (2007). “Sustainability of Balancing Item of Balance of Payments Accounts: Fresh Empirical Evidence For G7 Countries”, Applied Economics Letters, Volume: 14, pp:251–254. TANG, T. C. (2008). “Sustainability of Balancing Item in 18 Industrial Countries’ Balance of Payments Accounts: An Empirical Study”, The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, Volume: VII, Issue:5, Pages: 15-25.