2022 FRANSA CUMHURBAŞKANLIĞI SEÇİMİ: DIŞ POLİTİKA ANALİZİ ÜZERİNE BİR DEĞERLENDİRME

Fransa'da 2022 yılının Nisan ayında gerçekleştirilecek olan Cumhurbaşkanlığı Seçimi sonuçlarına ilişkin değerlendirmeler, dış politika analizi araştırmacılarına Fransa ve Avrupa Birliği'nin (AB) iç ve dış politikalarının geleceği konusunda yol gösterici nitelikte olacaktır. Bu çerçevede makalenin amacı, Fransa'da cumhurbaşkanlığı adayları ile adayların temsil ettiği siyasi partilerin dış politika yaklaşımlarının tespit edilmesidir. Makale, dış politika yapım süreçlerinde iç ve dış faktörleri ayrı analiz birimleri olarak ele alan geleneksel dış politika yaklaşımlarından farklı bir yaklaşım benimsemektedir. Geleneksel bakış açısının aksine, yazarlar iç ve dış faktörlerin etkileşimine odaklanmakta olup makalede bu etkileşimin aktörler üzerinde karşılıklı etkiler yarattığı ve dış politika yapım süreçlerini şekillendirdiği tartışılmaktadır. Metodolojik olarak makale, bu etkileşimi, yedi cumhurbaşkanı adayının söylemleri ve adayların temsil ettikleri siyasi partilerin programları üzerinden değerlendirmektedir. Makalede, Fransız dış politikasındaki iç ve dış faktörler arasındaki etkileşimin, hâlihazırda göç, güvenlik, ekonomi, iklim değişikliği, İslam, NATO üyeliği ve AB'nin geleceği temaları üzerinde yoğunlaştığı sonucuna varılmıştır. Bu çalışma, iç ve dış faktörlerin bileşimi üzerine kapsamlı bir analiz yaparak dış politika analizi literatürüne katkıda bulunmaya ve Fransa'daki cumhurbaşkanlığı seçim sürecinin olası yansımalarına ışık tutmaya çalışmaktadır.

2022 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN FRANCE: AN ASSESSMENT ON FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS

Assessments over the results of April 2022 Presidential Election in France will guide the scholars of foreign policy analysis on the future of internal and external policies of France and the European Union (EU). Within this framework, the aim of the paper is to identify the foreign policy approaches of the presidential candidates and the political parties they have represented in France. The paper adopts a diverse approach from traditional foreign policy approaches which take internal and external factors separately as units of analysis in foreign policy-making processes. Contrary to the traditional perspective, the authors focused on the interaction of internal and external factors, because it is argued in the paper that this interaction creates mutual impacts on agents and shapes foreign policy-making procedures. Methodologically the paper elaborates the interaction through an analysis on the discourses of seven presidential candidates and programs of the political parties they have represented. It is concluded in the paper that the interaction between internal and external factors in French foreign policy has currently concentrated on the themes such as migration, security, economy, climate change, Islam, NATO membership and the future of the EU. The article tries to contribute to the foreign policy analysis literature through a comprehensive analysis on the combination of internal and external factors and to illuminate the probable reflections of presidential election process in France.

___

  • Akgül Durakçay, F. (2021). Fransa’da Popülist Radikal Sağ: Ulusal Cephe-Ulusal Birlik Partisi. In M. Aknur & İ. Saylan (Eds.), Batı Avrupa’da Popülist Radikal Sağ Partiler (1. Basım., Vols. 1-1, Vol. 1, pp. 239–288). Ankara: Nobel Akademik Yayıncılık.
  • Albertini, A. (2022, January 11). Emmanuel Macron, un quasi-candidat prodigue en matière de sécurité. Le Monde.fr. Retrieved January 11, 2022, from https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2022/01/11/presidentielle-2022-emmanuel-macron-un-quasi-candidat-prodigue-en-matiere-de-securite_6109004_823448.html
  • Amaro, S. (2022, January 3). Political change is coming to the EU’s big three economies. Here’s why it matters. CNBC. Retrieved January 9, 2022, from https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/03/germany-france-and-italy-brace-for-political-change-why-markets-care.html
  • Amiel, S. (2021, November 30). France election: Who is Eric Zemmour and why is he so controversial? Euronews. Retrieved January 13, 2022, from https://www.euronews.com/2021/11/30/eric-zemmour-meet-the-right-wing-tv-pundit-set-to-shake-up-france-s-presidential-race
  • Çakır, A. (2021, December 9). Macron AB Dönem Başkanlığı Hedeflerini Açıkladı. Amerika’nin Sesi | Voice of America—Turkish. Retrieved January 9, 2022, from https://www.amerikaninsesi.com/a/macron-ab-donem-baskanligi-hedeflerini-acikladi/6347929.html
  • Chrisafis, A. (2016, June 24). European far right hails Brexit vote. The Guardian. Retrieved January 12, 2022, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/24/european-far-right-hails-britains-brexit-vote-marine-le-pen
  • Chrisafis, A. (2021, December 5). Valérie Pécresse: The ‘bulldozer’ who would be France’s first female president. The Guardian. Retrieved December 29, 2021, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/05/valerie-pecresse-the-bulldozer-who-would-be-frances-first-female-president
  • Chutel, L. (2021, May 26). Macron Goes to Africa. Foreign Policy. Retrieved December 29, 2021, from https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/05/26/macron-france-africa-trip-rwanda-kagame-south-africa-ramaphosa/
  • Dagens Nyheter. (2016, November 18). Marine Le Pen: France needs to develop relations with Russia. Dagens Nyheter. Retrieved January 12, 2022, from https://www.dn.se/nyheter/varlden/marine-le-pen-france-needs-to-develop-relations-with-russia/
  • Deutsche Welle. (2021, December 5). European populist far-right parties meet in Warsaw | DW | 05.12.2021. DW.COM. Retrieved December 29, 2021, from https://www.dw.com/en/european-populist-far-right-parties-meet-in-warsaw/a-60023500
  • Deutsche Welle. (2022, January 7). Macron’dan AB’nin stratejik gücünü artırma sözü | DW | 07.01.2022. DW.COM. Retrieved January 11, 2022, from https://www.dw.com/tr/macrondan-abnin-stratejik-g%C3%BCc%C3%BCn%C3%BC-art%C4%B1rma-s%C3%B6z%C3%BC/a-60360889
  • Euronews. (2021a, December 13). Pecresse: Ne ABD’ye bağımlı ne de Türkiye’nin tutsağı olmak istiyoruz. Euronews. Retrieved December 28, 2021, from https://tr.euronews.com/2021/12/13/valerie-pecresse-ne-abd-ye-bag-ml-ne-de-turkiye-taraf-ndan-rehin-al-nmak-istiyoruz
  • Euronews. (2021b, December 10). Ermenistan yolcusu Fransız cumhurbaşkanı adayı Zemmour, Osmanlı ve Türkiye’yi hedef aldı | Euronews. Retrieved January 13, 2022, from https://tr.euronews.com/2021/12/10/ermenistan-yolcusu-frans-z-cumhurbaskan-aday-zemmour-osmanl-ve-turkiye-yi-hedef-ald
  • Euronews. (2022, January 7). Macron: Erdoğan’ın siyasi projesi Avrupa değerlerine uymuyor. Euronews. Retrieved January 11, 2022, from https://tr.euronews.com/2022/01/07/macron-turkiye-ab-uyesi-olamaz-erdogan-n-siyasi-projesi-avrupa-degerlerine-uymuyor
  • Europe Ecologie Les Verts. (n.d.). Les Ecologistes 2022: Vivant. Europe Ecologie Les Verts. Retrieved January 15, 2022, from https://www.eelv.fr/files/2021/10/Projet-2022-11.07.21-NP-1.pdf
  • France 24. (2017, April 4). The world at their feet: French candidates on foreign policy. FRANCE 24. Retrieved December 30, 2021, from https://graphics.france24.com/france-presidential-election-foreign-policy/
  • Fransa'da aşırı sağcılar isim değiştirdi. (2018, June 1).Deutsche Welle Türkçe. Retrieved January 26, 2022, from https://www.dw.com/tr/fransada-a%C5%9F%C4%B1r%C4%B1-sa%C4%9Fc%C4%B1lar-isim-de%C4%9Fi%C5%9Ftirdi/a-44048965
  • Freire, M. R. (2012). Russian foreign policy in the making: The linkage between internal dynamics and the external context. International Politics, 49(4), 466–481.
  • Hidalgo, A. (n.d.). Hidalgo!2022: Élection présidentielle 2022 10 et 24 avril. Retrieved January 15, 2022, from https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/2022avechidalgo/pages/208/attachments/original/1641988254/AH-PROGRAMME-A4-V5-Page.pdf?1641988254
  • Hill, C. (2003). The changing politics of foreign policy. Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire ; New York: Palgrave MacMillan.
  • Jouve, T. (2016, October 24). Les insoumis croient en la victoire. Ladepeche.fr. Retrieved January 13, 2022, from https://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2016/10/24/2445272-les-insoumis-croient-en-la-victoire.html
  • Kaarbo, J., Lantis, J. S., & Beasley, R. K. (2013). The Analysis of Foreign Policy in Comparative Perspective. Foreign Policy in Comparative Perspective: Domestic and International Influences on State Behavior. United States: Sage Publications.
  • Kayalı, L., & Bermingham, P.-P. (2021, September 28). French Greens narrowly choose MEP Yannick Jadot as presidential candidate. POLITICO. Retrieved January 15, 2022, from https://www.politico.eu/article/yannick-jadot-greens-france-presidential-election-2022/
  • Kleinfeld, R., Carothers, T., Feldstein, S., Youngs, R. (2021), How middle-power democracies can help renovate global democracy support. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Working Paper. Retrieved January 20, 2022 from https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Kleinfeld_etal_Middle_Powers.pdf
  • La France Insoumise. (2018, December 14). “The future in common, in Europe too!”—France rebellious. Retrieved January 13, 2022, from https://lafranceinsoumise.fr/actualites/elections-europeennes__trashed/lavenir-en-commun-en-europe-aussi/
  • Le Monde. (2021, June 2). Présidentielle 2022: Qui sont les candidats déclarés et pressentis ? Le Monde.fr. Retrieved January 11, 2022, from https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2021/06/02/presidentielle-2022-qui-sont-les-candidats-declares-et-pressentis_6082545_4355770.html
  • Le Pen, M. (2017). 144 Engagements Presidentiels: Election Presidentielle- 23 Avril et 7 Mai 2017 (p. 24). Rassemblement National. Retrieved January 12, 2022, from https://rassemblementnational.fr/pdf/144-engagements.pdf
  • Les Republicains. (2021). Convention: Europe et International (p. 55). Les Republicains. Retrieved from https://republicains.fr/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/2021-09-24-lR-convention-europe.pdf
  • Leterre, T. (2002). The French Presidential Election: An Assessment. Brookings Institute, 3.
  • Macron, E. (n.d.). Emmanuel Macron—Ce que je suis. La République En Marche ! Retrieved January 11, 2022, from https://en-marche.fr/emmanuel-macron
  • Marin Pool, L. (2021, December 9). Macron lays out agenda for “powerful, sovereign” EU. France 24. Retrieved December 29, 2021, from https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20211209-macron-lays-out-agenda-for-powerful-sovereign-eu
  • Marlowe, L. M. P. (2022, January 7). Europe key to solving Ukraine crisis, say Macron and von der Leyen. The Irish Times. Retrieved January 11, 2022, from https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/europe-key-to-solving-ukraine-crisis-say-macron-and-von-der-leyen-1.4771354
  • McCulloch, B. (2022, January 14). French presidential election: Key candidates and their main policies. The Connexion. Retrieved January 15, 2022, from https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/French-presidential-election-Key-candidates-and-their-main-policies
  • Mullen, J. (2018, December 4). La France Insoumise: Tradition and change on the French Left. Counterfire. Retrieved January 13, 2022, from https://www.counterfire.org/articles/analysis/20015-la-france-insoumise-tradition-and-change-on-the-french-left
  • Pollet, M. (2021, September 27). French opposition reopens NATO exit debate after AUKUS submarine row – EURACTIV.com. Retrieved January 9, 2022, from https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/french-opposition-reopens-nato-exit-debate-after-aukus-submarine-row/
  • Pujol-Mazzini, A. (2021, November 30). Eric Zemmour announces French presidential run after months of heated speculation. The Telegraph. Retrieved January 1, 2022, from https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/30/eric-zemmour-announces-french-presidential-run-months-heated/
  • Ramdani, N. (2021, December 8). France’s New Far-Right Firebrand. Foreign Policy. Retrieved December 28, 2021, from https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/12/08/france-zemmour-lepen-macron-far-right-election/
  • Reuters. (2015, May 29). France’s UMP party changes name to The Republicans, boosting Sarkozy. Reuters. Retrieved January 12, 2022, from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-sarkozy-idUSKBN0OE2J120150529
  • Reuters. (2021, October 4). Macron to pitch greater EU role in Indo-Pacific after AUKUS crisis. Reuters. Retrieved December 29, 2021, from https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/macron-pitch-greater-eu-role-indo-pacific-after-aukus-crisis-2021-10-04/
  • RFI. (2018, April 6). Paris mayor demands more migrant shelters. RFI. Retrieved January 15, 2022, from https://www.rfi.fr/en/20180406-paris-migrants
  • Sputnik, T. (2022, January 11). Macron-Le Pen döngüsünü kıracak aday peşindeki Fransa’nın ilk kadın cumhurbaşkanı Pecresse olabilir. Sputnik Türkiye. Retrieved January 12, 2022, from https://tr.sputniknews.com/20220111/macron-le-pen-dongusunu-kiracak-aday-pesindeki-fransanin-ilk-kadin-cumhurbaskani-pecresse-olabilir-1052610811.html
  • Staunton, E. (2017, April 18). French election: Where the candidates stand on foreign policy. The Conversation. Retrieved January 13, 2022, from http://theconversation.com/french-election-where-the-candidates-stand-on-foreign-policy-76249
  • Staunton, E. (2021). ‘France is back’: Macron’s European policy to rescue ‘European civilisation’ and the liberal international order. Third World Quarterly, 1–17.
  • Temizer, S. (2021, November 18). Seeking independence in defense, EU preparing to approve “Strategic Compass.” Retrieved January 11, 2022, from https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/seeking-independence-in-defense-eu-preparing-to-approve-strategic-compass/2424601
  • Tidey, A. (2021, December 7). France election: Who’s who in the race to unseat Macron? | Euronews. Retrieved December 28, 2021, from https://www.euronews.com/2021/12/07/french-presidential-election-who-s-who-in-the-race-to-replace-macron