Identification of 'pull' & 'push' factors for the portfolio flows: SVAR evidence from the Turkish economy

Bu çalışmada portföy temelli sermaye akımlarının belirleyicileri Türkiye ekonomisi için incelenmiştir. Yapısal vektör otoregresyon yöntemi izlenerek elde edilen sonuçlar Türkiye ekonomisi için dışsal gelişmelere dayalı ‘iten’ etkenlerin portföy akımlarının davranışı açıklamakta belirleyici bir işleve sahip olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca, başlıca ‘çeken’ etkenlerden biri olarak yurt içi reel faiz oranı portföy akımları ile negatif bir dinamik ilişki içerisinde bulunmuştur. Bu sonuç portföy akımlarınının dinamik gelişme yolunun Türkiye ekonomisinin reel faiz yapısının aşırı getiri olanaklarıyla ilişkilendirilmemesi gerekliliğine atfedilmiştir.

Portföy akımları için "çeken" & "iten" etkenlerin tanımlanması: Türkiye ekonomisinden SVAR bulguları

In this paper, the determinants of the portfolio based capital flows are examined for the Turkish economy. Following the structural vector autoregression methodology, the estimation results reveal that the ‘push’ factors based on the external developments for the Turkish economy have a dominant role in explaining the behavior of the portfolio flows. Further, the domestic real interest rate as one of the main ‘pull’ factors has been found in a negative dynamic relationship with the portfolio flows. This result is attributed to that the dynamic course of the portfolio flows should not be related to the excess return possibilities of the real interest structure of the Turkish economy.

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