A. Can ZÜLFİKAR, Murat ERÖZ, Tolga CİMİLLİ, Murat ERÖZ, Seyhan OKUYAN AKCAN

Kritik Enerji Tesislerinin Deprem Risk Değerlendirmesinde Farklı Hasargörebilirlik Fonksiyonlarının İncelenmesi

Elektrik enerji tesisleri, deprem tehlikesinden dolayı hasar görme olasılığı yüksek kritik altyapılardan bir tanesidir. Sanayileşmenin yoğun olduğu Marmara bölgesinde çok sayıda elektrik enerji tesisleri bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışma kapsamında açık kaynaklı OpenQuake yazılımı kullanılarak, Marmara bölgesi için olasılıksal deprem tehlike analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Deprem tehlike analizinde, SHARE projesi ,2013 Avrupa-Akdeniz sismik tehlike modelinde tanımlanan (ESHM13) kaynak ve yerel zemin etkileri mantık ağacı modelleri ile dikkate alınmıştır. Çalışma kapsamında, Marmara bölgesinde yer alan tipik bir enerji üretim tesisi olan Bandırma-I Doğalgaz kombine çevrim santrali deprem tehlikesi analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, 2018-TBDY ve 2007-DBYBHY yönetmeliklerinde bulunan tasarım spektrumları ile karşılaştırılmıştır. Söz konusu tesiste, kritik yapı olan santral kontrol binası için farklı zemin durumu ve farklı hasargörebilirlik fonksiyonlarının dikkate alındığı deprem risk değerlendirmesi yapılmıştır. Marmara bölgesinde meydana gelebilecek olası deprem yer hareketi sonucu, dikkate alınan tesisin maruz kalacağı risklerin tespiti ve bu risklerin azaltılmasına yönelik faaliyetlerin geliştirilebilmesi için son derece kullanışlı olan kayıp eğrileri elde edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Olasılıksal deprem tehlike ve risk analizi, Doğalgaz kombine çevrim santrali, Kırılganlık fonksiyonları, Hasargörebilirlik fonksiyonları

Investigation of Different Vulnerability Functions in Earthquake Risk Assessment of Critical Energy Facilities

Electrical energy facilities are one of the critical infrastructures with a high probability of being damaged due to earthquake hazard. There are many electrical energy facilities in the Marmara region, where industrialization is intense. Within the scope of this study, probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis for the Marmara region was carried out using open source OpenQuake software. In the earthquake hazard analysis, source, and local ground effects as defined in the SHARE project, 2013 “Euro-Mediterranean seismic hazard model (ESHM13)” were considered together with the logic tree models. Within the scope of the study, the earthquake hazard analysis of Bandırma-I Natural Gas combined cycle power plant, which is a typical power generation facility in the Marmara region, was carried out and the results were compared with the Turkish earthquake codes (TSC-2007 and TBDY-2018) design spectra. The earthquake risk assessment was carried out for the power plant control building, which is the critical structure in the facility in question, considering different soil conditions and different vulnerability functions. As a result of possible earthquake ground motions that may occur in the Marmara region, loss curves have been obtained, which are extremely useful for the determination of the potential risks that the considered facility will be exposed to and for the development of risk mitigation activities

Keywords:

Probabilisitc seismic hazard and risk assessment, Natural gas combined cycle power plant, Fragility functions, Vulnerability functions,

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