Mehmet YILMAZ, Buse BÜYÜM

71110

AN ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO TOURISM DEMAND: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

This study focuses on modelling tourism demand with using number of tourists who came to Turkey between the years 1966-2012 (47 years)and bed numbers belonging to accommodation facilities with tourism operation licensed. The number of tourists and beds have only been reached dealingwith the years 1966-2012. Except from these variables, many variables such asstates investment incentives on tourism, tourism revenues, the annual averagetemperature, the parity of foreign currency like Euro, dollar and power of purchasing in the country could be taken into account. The aim of this paper is tocreate a forecasting model about the number of coming tourists and to provideprior information for tourism policies by regarding introduced models. In thissense, forecasting of international tourist arrivals for 2013-2020 is purposed
Keywords:

Tourism demand, tourism demand modelling, forecasting, inversemodels time series models, exponential smoothing models,

PDF

___

  • Akdi, Y. Zaman Serileri Analizi (Birim Kökler ve Kointegrasyon), 2nd Ed., Ankara, Gazi Kitabevi. 2010.
  • Bahar,O ve Kozak, M. Türkiye Turizminin Akdeniz Ülkeleri ile Rekabet Gücü Açısından Kar¸sıla¸stırılması, Anatolia: Turizm Ara¸stırmaları Dergisi, Vol. 16, No 2, Güz, pp. 139-152, (2005).
  • Chen, K.Y. Combining Linear and Nonlinear Model In Forecasting Tourism Demand, Expert Systems with Applications, 38, pp. 10368–10376, (2011).
  • Dwyer, L. Gill, A. and Seetaram, N. Handbook of Research Methods in Tourism: Quantitative and Qualitative Approaches, Edward Elgar Pub, 2012.
  • Granger, C.W.J. and Newbold, P. Spurious Regressions In Econometrics, Journal of Econo- metrics 2, pp. 111-120, (1974).
  • Gujarati, M. and Porter, D. Temel Ekonometri, Translation from 5th Ed. (Ümit ¸Senesen and Gülay Günlük ¸Senesen), ·Istanbul, Literatür Yayıncılık, 2012.
  • Song, H. and Witt, S.F. Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: Modern Econometric Approaches, Oxford: Pergamon, 2000.
  • Song, H. and Li, G. Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting, A Review of Recent Re- search Tourism Management, 29 (2), pp. 203 – 220, ISSN 0261-5177, (2008).
  • Song, H Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: How Should Demand Be Measured?, Tourism Economics, 16 (1), pp. 63–81, (2010).
  • Statistics of TUROFED are accessed from < http://www.turofed.org.tr/Bilgi-Edinme_13.aspx> on 27th June 2013.
Communications Faculty of Sciences University of Ankara Series A1 Mathematics and Statistics-Cover
  • ISSN: 1303-5991
  • Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 4 Sayı
  • Başlangıç: 1948
  • Yayıncı: Ankara Üniversitesi
Arşiv
Sayıdaki Diğer Makaleler

ON THE GROWTH ANALYSIS OF WRONSKIANS IN THE LIGHT OF SOME GENERALIZED GROWTH INDICATORS

Kumar DATTA SANJİB, Tanmay BISWAS, Ananya KAR

Muhammed ÇETIN, Yılmaz TUNÇER

Mehmet YILMAZ, Buse BÜYÜM

MODIFIED UNSCENTED KALMAN FILTER FOR NONLINEAR SYSTEMS

Esin BABACAN KOKSAL, İ. DOROSLOVACKI MİLOS, Levent ÖZBEK

Levent ÖZBEK, Esin KÖKSAL BABACAN

Dilek SÖYLEMEZ-ÖZDEN

Aynur ŞAHİN, Metin BAŞARIR

Esin BABACAN KOKSAL, İ. DOROSLOVACKI MİLOS, Levent ÖZBEK

Hesna KABADAYI

Hilal GÜNEY, Akif M. BAKIR