Markov Analizi İle Otel Tercihlerinin Ve Tercih Nedenlerinin Belirlenmesi

Turizm sektöründeki rekabetin her geçen gün artmasıyla birlikte turizm bölgelerinde yer alan otellerin önemi de artmıştır. Otellerin tercih edilme oranlarını ve tercih edilme nedenlerini bilmeleri rakiplerine karşı büyük bir avantaj sağlayacaktır. Bu amaçla Mersin ilinde yer alan 4 ve 5 yıldızlı, plajı bulunan otellerin tercih edilme olasılıklarına ve tercih nedenlerine yönelik bir çalışma yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın verileri 410 kişiye uygulanan anketlerden elde edilmiştir. Tercih edilme olasılıklarının analizi için Markov zinciri yönteminin temelini oluşturan geçiş olasılıkları matrisi oluşturulmuş ve uzun dönem denge vektörleri hesaplanmıştır. Yapılan analiz sonucunda uzun dönemde en çok tercih edilecek üç otelin sırasıyla Ulu Resort Hotel (5*), Liparis Resort Hotel& Spa (5*) ve Wonasis Resort& Aqua Hotel (5*) olduğu belirlenmiştir. Çalışmaya dâhil edilen otellerin tercih edilme nedenlerinin belirlenmesi için Saklı Markov modeli kullanılmıştır. Konum, oda ve tesis temizliği, çocuklu ailelere yönelik imkânların bulunması ve çevredeki kişilerin tavsiyeleri veya reklamların etkili olması otel tercihlerini etkileyen en önemli faktörler olarak belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Markov Zincirleri, Saklı Markov modeli, Geçiş Olasılıkları, Otel Tercihleri

Determining Hotel Preferences and the Reasons for These Preferences Using Markov Analysis

The importance of hotels in tourism regions has developed with the increasing competition in the tourism sector. Knowing the preference rates and the factors that affect the preferences will provide a considerable advantage over their competitors for hotels. For this purpose, a study has been conducted on the preference probabilities and the factors affecting preferences of 4 and 5-star hotels with beaches in Mersin province. The data of the study were obtained from questionnaires applied to 410 people. For the analysis of the preference probabilities, the transition probability matrix, which forms the basis of the Markov chain method, was created and the long-term equilibrium vectors were calculated. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that the three most preferred hotels in the long term are Ulu Resort Hotel (5*), Liparis Resort Hotel & Spa (5*), and Wonasis Resort & Aqua Hotel (5*). The Hidden Markov model was used to determine the factors affecting the preferences of the hotels included in the study. Location, room and facility cleaning, availability of facilities for families with children, and the effectiveness of recommendations or advertisement have been identified as the most important factors affecting hotel preferences.

Keywords:

Markov Chains, Hidden Markov Model, Transition Probabilities, Hotel Preferences,

PDF

___

Akgündüz, Y., & Bardakoğlu, Ö. (2012). Effects of educational status and gender of tourists on the choice of hotel: a research in İzmir. Dokuz Eylül University The Journal of Graduate School of Social Sciences, 14(4), 13-29.
Akyurt, İ. Z., (2005). Markov Zincirleri ve trafik sigortası hasarsızlık indirimi veya zamlı prim sisteminin Markov Zincirleri ile ifade edilerek analiz edilmesi. İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi.
Baruca, P. Z., & Civre, Z. (2012). How do guests choose a hotel. Academica Turistica, 5(1), 75-84.
Baum, L. E. (1972). An inequality and associated maximization technique in statistical estimation for probabilistic functions of Markov processes. Inequalities, 3(1), 1-8.
Baum, L. E., & Eagon, J. A. (1967). An inequality with applications to statistical estimation for probabilistic functions of Markov processes and to a model for ecology. Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, 73(3), 360-363.
Baum, L. E., & Petrie, T. (1966). Statistical inference for probabilistic functions of finite state Markov Chains. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 37(6), 1554-1563.
Bicego, M., & Murino, V. (2004). Investigating Hidden Markov models’ capabilities in 2d shape classification. IEEE Transactions On Pattern Analysis And Machine Intelligence, 26(2), 281-286.
Büyüktatlı, F., İşbilir, S., & Çetin, E. İ. (2013). An estimation application according to annual allowances with Markov analysis. Journal of Alanya Faculty of Business, 5(1), 1-8.
Can, T.,& Öz, E., (2009). Marka tercihlerine ve tercih nedenlerine Gizli Markov modelinin uygulanması. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 10(2), 167-185.
Dağlıoğlu, C.,& Kıral, G. (2018). Prediction of economical investment tool returns with Hidden Markov model for Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Innovation, 4(1), 61-75.
Demir, M., Demir, Ş. Ş., Ergen, F. D. E., & Dalgıç, A. (2021). The factors affecting hotel choice of consumers during the Covid-19 process. International Journal of Social Sciences and Education Research, 7(1), 82-94.
Demirtaş, N. (2010). Otel işletmeciliği. Ankara Üniversitesi Uzaktan Eğitim Yayınları, 67.
Dinçer, M., & Dinçer, F. (1989). Türkiye'de konaklama sektörünün gelişimi ve başlıca sorunları üzerine bir araştırma. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 47, 1-4.
Emir, O.,& Pekyaman, A . (2010). Important factors for families with children in hotel establishment selection: an application in Afyonkarahisar. Journal of Management & Economics, 17(2), 159-181.
Grinstead, C. M., & Snell, J. L. (2012). Introduction to probability. American Mathematical Soc.
Gündüz, S., & Kıral, S. G. (2020). Estimation of voters’ preferences with Markov Chains. Journal of Çukurova University Institute of Social Sciences, 29(1), 270-281.
Haberdar, H. (2005). Saklı Markov model kullanılarak görüntüden gerçek zamanlı Türk işaret dili tanıma sistemi, Yıldız Teknik Üniveristesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi.
Karaman, A. (Ed.). (2016). Otel işletmeciliği. Eğitim Yayınevi.
Kaya, M. F. (2019). Factors affecting hotel selection of business travelers: the case of Mardin. University of Batman, Institute of Social Sciences, Master’s Thesis.
Kıral, E. (2018). Determination of mobile phone operator preferences Markov analysis: an application of Adana province. Journal of Çukurova University Institute of Social Sciences, 27(1), 35-47.
Kıral, S. G., & Gündüz, S. (2020). Determination of factors affecting voter preferences using the Hidden Markov model. Journal of Çukurova University Institute of Social Sciences, 29(3), 414-428.
Kıycı, Ş., Aksoy, R., & Koçoğlu, C. M. (2020). The effect of tourist innovativeness on innovative hotel choice. Itobiad: Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches, 9(1), 608- 635.
Kotler, P., Bowen, J.,& Makens. J. (2003). Marketing for hospitality and tourism. (Third Edition). Usa: Prentice Hall.
Kozak, M. A. (2012). Genel turizm bilgisi. Anadolu Universitesi.
Lewis, R. C. (1985). Predicting hotel choice: the factors underlying perception. Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly, 25(4), 82-96.
Liu, M., & He, R. (2013). Factors affecting students’ decision of hotel selection. MBA Student Scholarship, 17, 1-11.
Oflaz, Z. (2016). Bivariate Hidden Markov model to capture the dependency in claim estimate. Middle East Technical University Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Master’s Thesis.
Öz, E. (2009). An estimation by Hidden Markov model for the İstanbul Stock Exchange. Journal of Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 20(72), 59-85.
Öz, E. (2009). Saklı Markov modelleri ve finansal bir uygulama. Marmara Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi.
Öztürk, A. (2004). Yöneylem araştırması, Genişletilmiş 9. Baskı, Bursa: Ekin Kitabevi Yayınları.
Petrie, T. (1969). Probabilistic functions of finite state Markov Chains. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 40(1), 97-115.
Prasetyo, E. (2009). Factors affecting busy people in choosing a hotel. Petra Christian University, Doctoral Dissertation.
Rabiner, L. R. (1989). A tutorial on Hidden Markov models and selected applications in speech recognition. Proceedings of the IEEE, 77(2), 257-286.
Soulidou, A. K., Karavasilis, G. I., Vrana, V. G., Kehris, E. C., Theocharidis, A. I. T., & Azaria, A. H. (2018). Factors affecting hotel selection: Greek customers' perception.
Uçak, S. (2013). The effects of internet ads on individual customers’ hotel preferences: a field research practice in Balikesir. University of Bilecik Şeyh Edebali, Institute of Social Sciences, Master’s Thesis.
Verma, V. K., & Chandra, B. (2016). Hotel guest’s perception and choice dynamics for green hotel attribute: a mix method approach. Indian Journal of Science and Technology, 9(5), 1-9.
Wiastuti, R.D. & Lestari, N.S. (2020). The generation z characteristics and hotel choices. African Journal of Hospitality, Tourism and Leisure, 9 (1), ISSN: 2223-814X.
Wong, K. K. F., & Chi-Yung, L. (2002). Predicting hotel choice decisions and segmenting hotel consumers: a comparative assessment of a recent consumer based approach. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 11(1), 17–33.
Yavas, U., & Babakus, E. (2005). Dimensions of hotel choice criteria: congruence between business and leisure travelers. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 24(3), 359–367.
Yeşiltaş, M , Cankül, D , & Temizkan, R . (2012). The effects of religious life styles on selection hotel. Electronic Journal of Social Sciences, 11(39), 193-217.
Yıldırım, H. M., Sünnetçioğlu, A., & Atay, L. (2018). The role of lifestyle in the intention to choose green hotel. Journal of Social Sciences of Muş Alparslan University, 6(ICEESS’18), 9-17.
Zengin, B., Öztürk, E., & Salha, H. (2014). Evaluation of the alternative tourism potential of Amasya province. Papers on Social Science, 2014(2), 1-22.