Aynur KARAHAN, Meriç ÖZAKMAN, Şenol ALTUNDAĞ

Ankara ve Tokat’ta elma ve armut bahçelerinde Ateş yanıklığı hastalığının [Erwinia amylovora (Burrill) Winslow et al.] enfeksiyon risk günlerinin belirlenmesinde tahmin modellerinin kullanılması üzerine çalışmalar

Billing Revised System (BRS), Billing Integrated System (BIS95) ve Maryblyt ïƒ” Version 4.3 bilgisayar modeli, Ateş yanıklığı enfeksiyon risklerini tahmin etmek için 1998, 2000 ve 2001 yılları yetiştirme mevsimlerinde Tokat ve Ankara illerindeki elma ve armut bahçelerinde kullanılmıştır. BRS risk değerlendirme sistemi ile enfeksiyon risk günleri doğru olarak tespit edilmiş, fakat bu sistem gerçek enfeksiyonlardan daha fazla enfeksiyon risk günü belirlemiştir. BIS95 modeli ile çiçek ve sürgün enfeksiyon risk günleri armutta daha doğru tahmin edilmiştir. 1998 yılında, Maryblyt modeli çiçek yanıklığı enfeksiyonlarını tahmin etmede başarılı olmuş fakat bahçede ilk belirtiler tahmin edilenden daha sonra meydana gelmiştir. 2000 ve 2001 yıllarında Maryblyt ve BIS95 modelleri dolu yağışından dolayı armut bahçelerinde enfeksiyon risk günleri belirlemiştir ve armutta ilk belirtiler modeller tarafından tahmin edildiği gibi tespit edilmiştir. Her iki yılda elmada çiçek yanıklığı enfeksiyon risk günleri Maryblyt modeli tarafından belirlenmemiştir. Fakat BIS95 modeli 2000 yılında elmada çiçek yanıklığı enfeksiyon risk gününü belirlemiştir. Çalışmalar sonucunda Tokat ve Ankara illerinde enfeksiyon risk ve belirti oluşum tarihlerinin belirlenmesinde Maryblyt ve BIS95 modelleri başarılı olarak değerlendirilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Ateş yanıklığı, Erwinia amylovora, tahmin modelleri, Billing Revised System, Billing Integrated System, Maryblyt +1

Studies on the use of prediction models for assessing infection risk days of fire blight disease [Erwinia amylovora (Burrill) Winslow et al.] in apple and pear orchards in Ankara and Tokat

Billing Revised System (BRS), Billing Integrated System (BIS95) and Maryblyt ïƒ” Version 4.3 computer models were used for predicting fire blight infection risks in apple and pear orchards in Tokat and Ankara provinces during 1998, 2000 and 2001 growing seasons. Infection risk days were predicted accurately with BRS risk assessment system, but this system was indicated more infection risk days than that of actual infections. Blossom and shoot infection risk days on pear were predicted more accurately with BIS95 model. In 1998, Maryblyt model have been successful in predicting blossom blight infections but first symptoms in orchard were occurred later than predicted. In 2000 and 2001 Maryblyt and BIS95 models indicated infection risk days in pear orchards due to hail and the first symptoms on pear were detected according to the prediction of these models. In both years no infection risk days on apple were predicted by Maryblyt model but BIS95 indicated blossom blight infection risk days in 2000. As a result of these studies, Maryblyt and BIS95 models were evaluated successfully for indicating the dates of infection risk and symptom occurrence in Tokat and Ankara provinces.

Keywords:

Fire blight, Erwinia amylovora, prediction models, Billing Revised System, Billing Integrated System, Maryblyt,

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