Emin Hüseyin ÇETENAK, Özkan HAYKIR, Özlem ÖZTÜRK ÇETENAK

Finansal Gelişme Ekonomik Büyümeyi Artırır mı? Türk Cumhuriyetleri Örneği

Bu çalışmada, 1995-2017 yılları arasında Türk Cumhuriyetleri olarak anılan Azerbaycan, Kazakistan, Kırgızistan ve Türkiye örnekleminde finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki analiz edilmiştir. Analizde finansal gelişmişlik düzeyi göstergesi olarak IMF’den elde edilen finansal gelişmişlik endeksi kullanılmıştır. Endeks, finansal kurumların ve finansal piyasaların derinlik, erişim ve verimlilik açısından gelişmişlik düzeyini göstermektedir. Sabit yerel para birimine göre kişi başına düşen GSYİH’nin yıllık yüzde büyüme oranı, ekonomik büyümenin göstergesi olarak alınmıştır. Analizin sonucuna göre, anılan ülkelerde finansal gelişme ile ekonomik büyüme arasında pozitif bir ilişki mevcuttur. Sonuçlar analize enflasyonu ve Bankacılık Z Skorunu dâhil ederek Rassal Modeli ile doğrulanmıştır. Ancak asıl etki, finansal piyasa endeksi yerine finansal kurumlar endeksinde görülmektedir. Sonuçlar aynı zamanda ekonomik büyüme ile finansal gelişme arasında Granger nedensellik olmadığını da göstermektedir. Sonuçlar, anılan ülke ekonomileri için Arz Öncüllü Hipotezi desteklemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Finansal gelişme, ekonomik büyüme, Türk Cumhuriyetleri, finansal kurumlar, finansal piyasalar.

Does Financial Development Enhance Economic Growth? The Case of Turkic Countries

In this study, we investigate whether financial development enhances economic growth in Turkic countries, namely, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Türkiye from 1995 to 2017. The financial development index is obtained from the International Monetary Fund to proxy for the level of financial development. The index shows the level of development of financial institutions and financial markets in terms of depth, access, and efficiency. The annual percentage growth rate of GDP per capita based on constant local currency is taken as an indicator of economic growth. The main result of the analysis shows that there is a positive relationship between financial development and economic growth. The result is robust using random effect regression, adding inflation, and including Banking Z Score. However, the main impact can be seen in the financial institution instead of the financial market proxy. The results support the supply-leading hypothesis for the economies of four Turkic countries.

Keywords:

Financial development, economic growth, Turkic countries, financial institutions, financial markets,

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