Seçilmiş Makroekonomik Göstergelerin Döviz Kuru Üzerinde Etkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Bir Uygulama
Döviz kuru ülkenin serbest ticaret ekonomisinde hayati bir role sahip olmakla birlikte, faizoranı, enflasyon, cari açık, dış ticaret dengesi, işsizlik oranı vb. gibi makroekonomik ve finansal değişkenler üzerinde etki oluşturmaktadır. Döviz kurunda görülen istikrarsızlık ve ani artışlarekonomik faaliyetlerin olumsuz seyrine yol açarak ekonomik istikrarsızlığa yol açmaktadır. Busebeple döviz kuru son yıllarda Türkiye ekonomisi için üzerinde çok konuşulan konuların başındagelmektedir. Bu durum da döviz kurunun stabilize edilmesi için etkili olan göstergeler ve bunlararasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin incelenmesini önemli kılmaktadır.Bu kapsamda çalışmada Türkiyeekonomisinden 1988Q1-2019Q2 dönemini kapsayan üç aylık veriler kullanılarak, döviz kurları ileseçilmiş makroekonomik göstergeler arasındaki etkileşim Granger nedensellik testi ile incelenmiştir.Çalışmanın sonucunda döviz kurundan cari işlemler dengesine, dış ticaret haddine ve dışticaret dengesine doğru tek yönlü; döviz kuru ile petrol fiyatları arasında ise çift yönlü nedensellikilişkisi bulunmuştur.
The Effect of Selected Macroeconomic Indicators on Foreign Exchange Rate: An Application on Turkey’s Economy
The exchange rate plays a vital role in the country’s free trade economy and affects macroeconomic and financial variables such as interest rate, inflation rate, current account balance, foreign trade balance and unemployment rate. Instability and sudden increases in the exchange rate lead to the negative course of economic activities, leading to economic instability. For this reason, the exchange rate in recent years is one of the most talked about topics on for Turkey’s economy. It is important to examine the indicators that are effective for stabilizing the exchange rate and the causality relationship between these indicators.In this study, using quarterly data covering the period from 1988Q1-2019Q2 in Turkey’s economy, interaction between the exchange rate and selected macroeconomic indicators were analyzed using Granger causality test. As a result of the study, one-way from exchange rate to current account balance, terms of trade and foreign trade balance; a bilateral causality relationship between the exchange rate and oil prices was found.
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- ISSN: 1307-5705
- Yayın Aralığı: Yıllık
- Başlangıç: 2007
- Yayıncı: Bankacılık Düzenleme ve Denetleme Kurumu