Stijn CLAESSENS, Ayhan.M KÖSE, Marco E. TERRONES

Financial Stress and Economic Activity

Makroekonomik ve finansal değişkenlerin, ekonomik durgunluk ve finansal stres dönemlerindeki hareketlerinin temel özelliklerini yansıtan bu makale, daha önce Claessens, Köse ve Terrones (2008a, 2008b)’de detaylı olarak anlatılmış olan sonuçların kısa bir özetini sunmaktadır. Finansal stress dönemleri, kredilerde daralma ve varlık fiyatlarında aşırı düşüşlerin olduğu periyotlarla örtüşmektedir. Analiz, Ekonomik İşbirliği ve Kalkınma Örgütü’nün üyesi olan 21 ülkenin 1960-2007 yılları arasındaki verileri kullanılarak yapılmıştır. Sonuçlar, finansal stres dönemlerini takip eden ekonomik durgunluk periyotlarının, diğer durgunluk dönemlerine göre, daha uzun ve daha derin olduğunu göstermektedir. Makalenin son bölümünde, ulaşılan sonuçların dünya ekonomisinin içinde bulunduğu krizle olan ilişkisi kısa olarak değerlendirilmiştir.

Finansal Stres ve Ekonomik Aktivite

This paper briefly summarizes the results presented in Claessens, Köse and Terrones (2008a, 2008b) to provide a set of basic stylized facts about the linkages between macroeconomic and financial variables during recessions and episodes of financial stress, including the periods of credit crunches and asset (house and equity) price busts. The analysis employs a comprehensive database of key macroeconomic and financial variables for 21 OECD countries over the 1960-2007 period. The results indicate that recessions following periods of financial stress are often longer and deeper than other recessions are. The paper concludes with a short discussion of the implications of its findings for the current crisis.

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