This paper analyzes the effect of foreign entry on the profitability of the Turkish banks by panel estimation models. The dependent variable is net return on assets and net return on equity, which are used interchangeably to measure profitability. The independent variables are composed of bank-specific variables as well as host-country and global factors. In the benchmark model, the effect of foreign entry is captured by dummy variables that classify banks according to their foreign share content, whereas in the alternative model, the estimations are conducted sepera- tely for each mode of foreign entry category. Additionally, the analysis is repeated individually for the periods before and after the global crisis. Estimation results suggest that the significance of the explanatory variables changes depending on the foreign share content. Also, bank-specific variables and global factors are more important, while host-country factors are less important after the global crisis. For future work, other explanatory variables may be added to capture features peculiar to mode of foreign entry. Furthermore, certain variables may be included to seize developments in parent banks’ countries, which might affect subsidiary banks. Finally, other bank-specific variables like measures on administrative structure may be useful in estimations.
Bu çalışmada yabancı girişinin Türk bankalarının kârlılığı üzerindeki etkileri panel tahmin modelleriyle incelenmektedir. Kârlılığı ölçmek üzere bağımlı değişken olarak varlık getirisi ve özsermaye getirisinin dönüşümlü kullanıldığı çalışmada, açıklayıcı değişkenler bankaya özgü değişkenler ile evsahibi ülke ve küresel ekonomiye ilişkin etkenlerden oluşmaktadır. Baz modelde yabancı payının etkisi kukla değişkenlerle kontrol edilmekte, alternatif modelde ise regresyonlar bankaların yabancı payı kategorisi ayırımına göre tahmin edilmektedir. Ek olarak, analiz küresel kriz öncesi ve sonrası dönemler için tekrarlanmaktadır. Tahmin sonuçları açıklayıcı değişkenlerin anlamlılığının bankaların yabancı payına göre değiştiğini göstermektedir. Ayrıca, küresel kriz sonrasında bankaya özgü değişkenler ve küresel etkenlerin daha anlamlı, ev sahibi ülke etkenlerinin ise daha az anlamlı olduğu görülmektedir. İleriki dönemde yapılacak çalışmalarda, modele yabancı payını yansıtacak açıklayıcı değişkenlerin eklenmesi önerilmektedir. Buna ek olarak, bağlı bankaları etkileyen ev sahibi ülkelerdeki gelişmeleri yansıtacak değişkenlerin de çalışmaya dahil edilmesi gerektiği düşünülmektedir. Son olarak, tahminlere bankaların idari yapısına ilişkin değişkenlerin ilave edilmesinin faydalı olacağı değerlendirilmektedir.
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