Selçuk GÜL

4914

Reel Kur Hareketlerinin øhracat Üzerine Etkileri: Türkiye için Asimetrik Bir BakÕú

Bu çalÕúma, Türkiye için altÕn hariç ihracatÕn belirleyicilerini talep yönlü bir model ile ele alarak ihracatÕn yurt dÕúÕ gelirdeki ve reel döviz kurundaki de÷iúimlere duyarlÕlÕ÷ÕnÕ sorgulamaktadÕr. Toplam veri kullanÕmÕndan kaynaklanan sapmayÕ azaltmak amacÕyla ülke düzeyinde veri setinden yararlanÕlmaktadÕr. Reel döviz kurundaki geliúmeler, do÷rusal olmayan ARDL yöntemi (NARDL) ile asimetrik olarak modellenmektedir. Söz konusu yöntem, ihracat miktarÕnÕn reel döviz kurunda gerçekleúen azalÕú ve artÕúlara verdi÷i tepkilerin farklÕlaúÕp farklÕlaúmadÕ÷Õ ele almaya olanak tanÕmaktadÕr. Bulgular, Türkiye’nin toplam ihracatÕnÕn yaklaúÕk yarÕsÕnÕ gerçekleútirdi÷i ülkeler için ihracatÕn reel kur de÷iúimlerinden anlamlÕ olarak etkilendi÷ine iúaret etmektedir. Panel veri tahminleri de ihracat ile reel döviz kuru arasÕndaki uzun dönem iliúkiyi teyit etmektedir. Ülke düzeyinde ihracatÕn gelir esnekliklerinin, ihracatÕn reel kur esnekliklerinden mutlak anlamda daha büyük olduklarÕ saptanmaktadÕr. ÇalÕúmada, reel kur de÷iúimlerinin ihracat üzerinde asimetrik etkileri oldu÷u sonucuna ulaúÕlmaktadÕr. Söz konusu etkilerin, Türk lirasÕndaki de÷er kazancÕ durumunda daha güçlü oldu÷u yönünde bulgular elde edilmektedir.

The Effects of Real Exchange Rate Movements on Exports:An Asymmetric Approach for Turkey

This study investigates the sensitivity of export demand to variations in foreign income and real exchange rate by examining the determinants of Turkish exports (excluding gold) with a demand side model. To minimize the aggregation bias caused by using aggregate export statistics, country level bilateral export data is employed. Real exchange rate developments are modeled asymmetrically by the nonlinear ARDL method (NARDL). This method allows examining whether the response of exports differs with respect to real exchange rate depreciation and appreciation. Findings indicate that exports are significantly affected by real exchange rate developments for the countries to which almost half of Turkey’s total exports are made. Panel data estimations also confirm the long-run relationship between exports and real exchange rate. Income elasticity of exports is found to be greater than real exchange rate elasticity of exports in absolute terms. In addition, there is evidence that real exchange rate developments induce asymmetrical effects on exports. Findings show that these effects are stronger during the periods when Turkish lira appreciates.
PDF

___

  • Ahmed, S., Appendino, M.A., ve Ruta, M. (2015). Depreciations Without Exports? Global Value Chains and The Exchange Rate Elasticity Of Exports. Policy Research Working Paper Series, 7390, The World Bank.
  • Aldan, A., ve Çulha, O.Y. (2012). Bölgesel ihracat miktar endeksleri. Ekonomi Notu, 1212, AraútÕrma ve Para PolitikasÕ Genel Müdürlü÷ü, TCMB.
  • Arize, A., Malindretos, J., ve Igwe, E.U. (2017). Do Exchange Rate Changes Improve The Trade Balance: An Asymmetric Nonlinear Cointegration Approach. International Review of Economics and Finance, 49, 313-26.
  • AydÕn, F., ÇÕplak, U., ve Yücel, E. (2004). Export Supply And Import Demand Models For The Turkish Economy, Working Paper, 04/09, CBRT.
  • AydÕn, F., SaygÕlÕ, H., ve SaygÕlÕ, M. (2007). Empirical analysis of structural change in Turkish exports, Working Paper 07/08, Research and Monetary Policy Department, CBRT.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., ve Aftab, M. (2017). On the Asymmetric Effects Of Exchange Rate Volatility On Trade Flows: New Evidence From US-Malaysia Trade At The Industry Level. Economic Modelling, 63, 86-103.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., ve Durmaz, N. (2016). Exchange Rate Volatility And Turkish Commodity Trade With The Rest Of The World. Economic Change and Restructuring, 49, 1-21.
  • Belke, A., Göcke, M. ve Werner, L. (2015). Exchange Rate Volatility And Other Determinants Of Hysteresis In Exports-Empirical Evidence for the Euro area. Review of Economic Analysis, 7, 24- 53.
  • Berument, H., Dinçer, N., ve Mustafao÷lu, Z. (2014). External Income Shocks And Turkish Exports: A Sectoral Analysis. Economic Modelling, 37, 476-84.
  • BinatlÕ, A. O., ve Sohrabji, N. (2009). Elasticities of Turkish exports and imports. ÇalÕúma Tebli÷i 0906, Izmir Ekonomi Üniversitesi.
  • Blackburne, E., ve Frank, M. (2007). Estimation Of Nonstationary Heterogeneous Panels. Stata Journal, 7(2), 197-208.
  • Bond, S., ve Eberhardt, M. (2009). Cross-Section Dependence In Nonstationary Panel Models: A Novel Estimator, Paper Presented At The Nordic Econometrics Conference in Lund.
  • Bozok, ø., Do÷an, B.ù., ve Yüncüler, Ç. (2015). Estimating Income And Price Elasticity Of Turkish Exports With Heterogeneous Panel Time-Series Methods. Working Papers 1526, Research and Monetary Policy Department, CBRT.
  • Brown, R.L., Durbin, J., ve Evans, J.M. (1975). Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships over Time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37(2), 149-92.
  • Cheung, Y., ve Sengupta, R. (2013). Impact Of Exchange Rate Movements On Exports: An Analysis Of Indian Non-Financial Sector Firms. Journal of International Money and Finance, 39, 231-45.
  • Coúar, E.E. (2002). Price And Income Elasticities Of Turkish Export Demand: A Panel Data Application. Central Bank Review, 2, 19-53.
  • Çulha, O.Y., ve KalafatçÕlar, K. (2014). Türkiye’de ihracatÕn gelir ve fiyat esnekliklerine bir bakÕú: bölgesel FarklÕlÕklarÕn Önemi. Ekonomi Notu 1405, AraútÕrma ve Para PolitikasÕ Genel Müdürlü÷ü, TCMB.
  • Demian, V., ve Di Mauro, F. (2015). The Exchange Rate, Asymmetric Shocks And Asymmetric Distributions. ECB Working Paper 1801, European Central Bank.
  • Dincer, N., ve Kandil, M. 2011. The Effects Of Exchange Rate Fluctuations On Exports: A Sectoral Analysis For Turkey. The Journal Of International Trade & Economic Development, 20 (6), 809- 837.
  • Eberhardt, M., ve Teal, F. (2010). Productivity Analysis in Global Manufacturing Production. Economics Series, Working Papers 515, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  • Fedoseeva, S. (2016). Same Currency, Different Strategies? The (Asymmetric) Role Of The Exchange Rate In Shaping European Agri-Food Exports. Applied Economics, 48, 1005-17.
  • Fedoseeva, S. (2013). (A)symmetry, (Non)Linearity And Hysteresis Of Pricing-To-Market: Evidence From German Sugar Confectionery Exports. Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, 11(1), 1-17.
  • Goldstein, M., ve Khan, Mohsin (1985). Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade. In Handbook of International Economics. Netherlands: Elsevier.
  • Leigh, D., Lian, W., Poplawski, M.R., Szymanski, R., Tsyrennikov, V., ve Yang, H. (2017). Exchange Rates And Trade: A Disconnect?. IMF Working Papers 17/58, IMF.
  • Pesaran, M. H., ve Smith, R.P. (1995). Estimating Long-Run Relationships from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 68, 79-113.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., ve Smith, R.P. (1999). Pooled Mean Group Estimation Of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94, 621-34.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., ve Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches To The Analysis Of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16: 289-326.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels', Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 0435, University of Cambridge.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2006). Estimation And Inference In Large Heterogeneous Panels With A Multifactor Error Structure. Econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012.
  • Pesaran, M. H. 2007. A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
  • Özmen, E., ve Yolcu-Karadam, D. (2014). Structural Change In Turkish External Trade: Evidence From BEC Sectors. ERC Working Papers 1413, Middle East Technical University.
  • SarÕkaya, Ç. (2004). Export dynamics in Turkey. Central Bank Review, 2, 41-64.
  • SaygÕlÕ, H., ve SaygÕlÕ, M. 2011. Structural Changes In Exports Of An Emerging Economy: Case Of Turkey. Structural Change And Economic Dynamics, 22, 342-60.
  • Shin, Y., Yu, B., ve Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew (2014). Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration And Dynamic Multipliers In A Nonlinear ARDL Framework. In Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt. New York: Springer. ùimúek, M., ve KadÕlar, C. (2005). Türkiye’nin Ihracat Talebi Fonksiyonunun SÕnÕr Testi Yöntemi Ile Eúbütünleúme Analizi. Do÷uú Üniversitesi Dergisi, 6(1), 144-52.
  • Togan, S., ve Berument, H. (2007). The Turkish Current Account, Real Exchange Rate And Sustainability: A Methodological Framework. The Journal of International Trade and Diplomacy, 1(1), 155-92.
  • Verheyen, F. (2013). Exchange rate nonlinearities in EMU exports to the US. Economic Modelling, 32, 66-76.
  • Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69(6), 709-48.
Bankacılar-Cover
  • ISSN: 1300-0217
  • Başlangıç: 1990
  • Yayıncı: Türkiye Bankalar Birliği
Arşiv
Sayıdaki Diğer Makaleler

Türkiye øçin Yeni Bir Enflasyon Göstergesi: Enflasyon Aktivite Endeksi

İbrahim Ethem GÜNEY, Oğuzhan ÇEPNİ

Reel Kur Hareketlerinin øhracat Üzerine Etkileri: Türkiye için Asimetrik Bir BakÕú

Selçuk GÜL

Alacak SigortasÕnda Reasürans UygulamalarÕ

Bekir Selman YILDIRIM, Banu ERKÖK

Zaman Serisi Verilerinde KullanÕlan Tahmin Tekniklerinin Veri Özelliklerine Göre Belirlenmesi ve KarúÕlaútÕrÕlmasÕ: BøST-100 Endeksi Üzerine Uygulama

Hakan Aydoğan, Hakan YILDIRIM, Sami Özcan

Türkiye’de Kredi Faizlerini Etkileyen Faktörlerin Belirlenmesi: MARS Yöntemiyle Bir Analiz

Mustafa Tevfik KARTAL