Öz
Bu çalışma, herhangi bir ekonominin dış ticaret haddinde
meydana gelen pozitif (negatif) hareketlerin, diğer şeyler sabitken söz konusu
ekonominin dış ticaret dengesinde de pozitif (negatif) hareketlere neden
olacağını öngören Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) Hipotezi’nin, 1991:4-
2003:3 döneminde Türkiye ekonomisi bakımından geçerli olup olmadığını
incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Granger Nedensellik Testi sonuçlarına göre; dış
ticaret haddinden dış ticaret dengesine doğru, tek yönlü ve kısa dönemli bir
nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ancak söz konusu nedensellik
ilişkisi, negatif yönlü olup; Türkiye ekonomisi bakımından HLM Hipotezi’nin
söz konusu dönemde geçerli olmadığına işaret etmektedir.
___
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