HARBERGER-LAURSEN-METZLER ETKİSİ: LİTERATÜR VE TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz Bu çalışma, herhangi bir ekonominin dış ticaret haddinde meydana gelen pozitif (negatif) hareketlerin, diğer şeyler sabitken söz konusu ekonominin dış ticaret dengesinde de pozitif (negatif) hareketlere neden olacağını öngören Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) Hipotezi’nin, 1991:4- 2003:3 döneminde Türkiye ekonomisi bakımından geçerli olup olmadığını incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Granger Nedensellik Testi sonuçlarına göre; dış ticaret haddinden dış ticaret dengesine doğru, tek yönlü ve kısa dönemli bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ancak söz konusu nedensellik ilişkisi, negatif yönlü olup; Türkiye ekonomisi bakımından HLM Hipotezi’nin söz konusu dönemde geçerli olmadığına işaret etmektedir.

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