Türkiye Ekonomisinin Makro Ekonomik Performansı: 1951-2003 Dönemi İçin Parametrik Olmayan Bir Ölçüm

İktisat literatüründe ülkelerin makro ekonomik performanslarını ölçmeye yönelik uygulamalar oldukça yaygındır. Son dönemlerde bu tür ölçümlerde, OECD'nin "büyülü elmas" olarak nitelendirdiği dört gösterge üzerinde bir yoğunlaşma vardır. Söz konusu bu dört makro ekonomik performans göstergesi; ekonomik büyüme, enflasyon oranı, işsizlik oranı ve cari işlemler açığıdır. Amacımız; literatürdeki benzer çalışmalara uygun olarak, söz konusu dört göstergeyi tek bir gösterge temelinde birleştirerek, Türkiye'nin 1951-2003 dönemine ait makro ekonomik performansını nispi anlamda değerlendirmektir. Bu amaçla çalışmada, parametrik olmayan bir nispi etkinlik ölçüm yöntemi olan Veri Zarflama Analizi (VZA) yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Çalışmadan elde edilen temel sonuçlar; Türkiye'nin genel olarak dönem boyunca makro ekonomik performansının düştüğü ve özellikle 1980 sonrasında makro ekonomik performansın istikrarsız bir yapıya sahip olduğu, kriz yıllarının en kötü makro ekonomik performansın gerçekleştiği yıllar olduğu ve demokrasinin kesintiye uğradığı yıllar için genel bir değerlendirmenin yapılamayacağı şeklindedir.

The Macroeconomic Performance of Turkey's Economy: A Non-Parametric Measurement for 1951-2003 Period

It is common practice to summarize the macroeconomic performance of countries in the economic literture. Recently, there is a consensus on the well-known OECD's four indicators which is called as "magic diomand" for the measurement of macroeconomic perfromance. These four indicators are economic growth, inflation rate, unemployment rate and current balance of payments as a percentage of gross domestic product. The purpose of this study is, like similar studies in the literature, to merge on basis of these four indicators into one statistic and evaluate Turkey's macroeconomic performance for the 1951-2003 period. For this purpose, we used a non-parametric approach namely Data Envelopment Analiysis (DEA). As a result, during the time dimension we find out that Turkey's macroeconomic performance decreases, especially in 1980's. hi addition to this result, Turkey's macroeconomic perfromance indicates relatively poor performance during the crise years and no spesific conclusion could be achieved about the years of the military coups.

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