Büyüme ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Bu çalışma Türkiye'de 1990 yılının ilk çeyreğinden 2004 yılının ilk çeyreği arasındaki dönemde ihracat ve büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini araştırmaktadır. Nedensellik ilişkisinin tahmin edilmesinde vektör hata düzeltme modeli ve koentegrasyon analizinden yararlanılmıştır. Birim kök testleri her serinin seviye değerlerinde durağan olmadığını, serilerin birinci farklarında ise durağanlığın sağlandığını göstermektedir. Koentegrasyon testi sonuçları ihracat, ithalat ve büyüme arasında uzun dönem denge ilişkisinin mevcut olduğunu ve tek bir koentegrasyon vektörü olduğunu göstermektedir. Seriler koentegre olduklarından nedensellik testinin yapılması için vektör hata düzeltme modeli kullanılmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlar ihracat ve büyüme arasında tek yönlü bir ilişkinin bulunduğunu ve bu tek yönlü ilişkinin ihracattan büyümeye doğru olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca koentegrasyon denklemi uzun dönemde ihracatın büyümeyi artırdığını göstermektedir. Bu sonuç ihracatın artırılmasına yönelik politikaların Türkiye'de büyümeyi artırdığını göstermektedir.

The Causality Relationship Growth and Export: The Case of Turkey

This study investigates the causal relationship between economic growth and exports in Turkey for the period from the first quarter of 1990 to the first quarter of 2004. We utilize cointegration analysis and vector error correction model in estimating the causality relationship between exports and growth. Unit root test results indicate that each of series is nonstationary when the variables are defined in levels and that each of series is stationary when the variables are defined in first differences. Cointegration test results show that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship among exports, imports and growth. It is concluded that there is only one cointegration vector in the data. Since the series are found to be cointegrated, we use vector error correction model to test the existence of causality. The empirical results show that there is unidirectional causality between exports and growth. This unidirectional causality occurs from export to growth. Moreover cointegration equation indicates that exports stimulate growth. This result shows that export promotion policies contribute to growth in Turkey.

PDF

___

ALICI, A.A. / UCAL, M.Ş. (2003), Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Output Growth of Turkey: Causality Analysis (Madrid: Paper to be Presented European Trade Study Group 5. Annual Conference-11-13 September 2003).
AL-YOUSIF, Y.K. (1999), "On the Role of Exports in The Economic Erowth of Malaysia: A Multivariate Analysis," International Economic Journal, 13: 65-75.
AMIRKHALKHALI, S./DAR, A.A. (1995), "A Varying-Coefficients Model of Export Expansion, Factor Accumulation and Economic Growth: Evidence From Cross-Country, Time Series Data," Economic Modelling, 12: 435-41.
ARNADE, C./VASAVADA U. (1995), "Causality Between Productivity and Exports in Agriculture: Evidence from Asia and Latin America," Journal of Agricultural Economics, 46: 174-186.
BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, M./ DOMAC, I. (1995) "Export Growth and Economic Growth in Turkey: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis," Middle East Technical University Studies in Development, 22: 67-77.
BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, M./ALSE, J. (1993), "Export Growth and Economic Growth: An Application of Cointegration and Error-Correction Modeling," The Journal of Developing Areas, 27: 535-542.
BALASSA, B. (1985), "Exports, Policy Choies, and Economic Growth in Developing Countries After the 1973 Oil Shock," Journal of Development Economics,18: 23-35.
BALASSA, B. (1978), "Exports and Economic Growth: Further Evidence," Journal of Development Economics, 5: 181-189
BEN-DAVID, D./ LOEWY, M.B. (1998), "Free-Trade, Growth, and Convergence," Journal of Economic Growth, 3: 143-70.
CHENERY, H.B./STROUT, A. (1966), "Foreign Assistance and Economic Development," American Economic Review, 679-732.
DICKEY, D.A./FULLER, W.A. (1981), "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, 49/4 (July): 1057-1072.
DODARO, S. (1993), "Exports and Growth: A Reconsideration of Causality," Journal of Developing Areas, 27: 227-244.
DUTT, S.D. / GHOSH, D. (1994), "An Empirical Investigation of the Export Growth-Economic Growth Relationship," Applied Economics Letters, 1: 44-48.
ENGLE, R.F. / GRANGER, C.WJ. (1987), "Cointegration and Error-Correction: Representation,Estimation and Testing," Econometrica, 55: 251-276
ESFAHANI, H.S. (1991), "Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Semi-Industrialized Countries,1"Journal of Development Economics, 35: 93-116.
FEDER, G. (1982), "On Exports and Economic Growth," Journal of Development Economics, 12: 59-73
HELPMAN, E./KRUGMAN, P.R. (1985), Market Structure and Foreign Trade (Cambridge (Mass.): MIT Press).
HENRIQUES, I./SADORSKY, P. (1996), "Export-Led Growth or Growth-Driven Exports? The Canadian Case," Canadian Journal of Economics, 96: 540-55.
FOSU, A.K. (1996), "Primary Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," World Economy, 19:465-475.
JOHANSEN, S. (1988), "Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12 (2-3): 231-254
JOHANSEN, S./JUSEL1US, K. (1990), "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration-with Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52: 169-210.
JONES, J./JOULFAIAN, D. (1991) "Federal Government Expenditures and Revenues in the Early Years of the American Republic: Evidence from 1792 and 1860," Journal of Macroeconomics, 13: 133-155.
KAVOUSSI, R.M. (1984), "Export Expansion and Economic Growth: Further Empirical Evidence," Journal of Development Economics, 14: 241-250.
KÖSE, N./YİĞİDİM, A. (1998), "Dışsallık ve İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezi: Türkiye Örneği, 1980-1997," istatistik Konferansı, 26-27 Ekim 1998 (Ankara: Gazi Üniversitesi, İstatistik Bölümü): 147-155
LANCASTER, K. (1980), "Intra-lndustry Trade Under Perfect Monopolistic Competition," Journal of International Economics, 10: 151-175.
LUCAS, R.E. (1988), "On the Mechanics of Economic Development," Journal of Monetary Economics, No:22: 3-42.
MICHAELY, M. (1977), "Exports and Growth: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Development Economics, 4: 49-53.
ÖZMEN, E./FURTUN, G. (1998), "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis and the Turkish Data: An Empirical Investigation," METU Studies in Development, 25/3: 491-503.
POMPONIO, X.Z. (1996), "A Causality Analysis of Growth and Export Performance," Atlantic Economic Journal, 24: 168-176.
RAM, R. (1987), "Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Time-Series and Cross-Section Data," Economic Development and Cultural Change, 36: 51-72.
RIEZMAN, R.G./ SUMMERS, P.M./ WHITEMAN, C.H. (1996), "The Engine of Growth or its Handmaiden? A Time Series Assessment of Export-Led Growth," Empirical Economics, 21:77-110.
SHAN, J./SUN, F. (1998), "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis for Australia: An Empirical Re-investigation," Applied Economics Letters, 5: 423-428.
SHARMA, S.C./DHAKAL, D. (1994) "Causal Analysis Between Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," Applied Economics, 26: 1145-57.
THORNTON, J. (1996), "Cointegration, Causality and Export-Led Growth in Mexico, 1895-1992," Economic Letters, 50: 413-416.
THORNTON, J. (1997), "Export and Economic Growth:Evidence from 19th Century Europe," Economic Letters, 55: 235-240.
TYLER, W.G. (1981), "Growth and Export Expansion in Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence," Journal of Development Economics, 9: 121-130.
VOIVODAS, C. (1973), "Exports, Foreign Capital Inflow and Economic Growth," Journal of International Economics, 3: 337-349.
YİĞİDİM, A./KÖSE, N. (1997), "İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki, İthalatın Rolü: Türkiye örneği (1980-1996)," Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 8: 71-85.