Türkiye Hava ve Füze Savunması Atlı Karıncasını Anlamak

2013 yılında bir noktada, Türkiye'nin siyasi otoritesi, ülke içi kalkınma ve uzun menzilli hava ve füze savunma sistemlerinin üretimini öncelikli olarak ele almaya başladı. Kısa bir süre sonra, lisanslı üretim ve teknoloji transferi vaadi ile birlikte Çin’den gelen bir teklifi tercih etme kararını açıkladılar. Ancak, bu kararla birlikte NATO’nun entegrasyon ve bilgi güvenliği ile ilgili itirazları ve meydan okuması geldi. Çin yanlısı kararın geri alınmasına ilişkin 2015 kararı ve bunun yerine hava ve füze savunma sistemlerinin yerli gelişiminin (yabancı bir teknolojik ve endüstriyel ortak ile yakın bir şekilde) tercih edilmesi, Çin’in teknoloji transferi paketinin içeriğine olan ilgisizlikle tetiklendi. Daha sonra bu yeni partner Fransa ve İtalya'yı kapsayan bir ekip oldu; Türk endüstrisi, Avrupa'nın yeni nesil füze savunma yeteneğini geliştirmek için kendini bu takıma bağladı. Ardından 2017'de, Türk hükümetinin Rusya'daki bağımsız S-400 sistemlerini satın alma kararı geldi. Bu kural dışı karar teknik, operasyonel ve endüstriyel kriterleri kapsayan yukarıdan aşağıya bir karar döngüsünün tüm özelliklerine sahipti. Türkiye’nin siyasi aktörleri, S-400’ü, Batı’nın benzer sistemleri satmayı reddetmesinde dahil olarak, ülke içi üretimin ve teknolojilere erişiminin faydalarına değinerek meşrulaştırmış, ancak bu gerekçeler Rus tarafınca reddedilmiş ve/veya Türk kurumları, yetkilileri ve siyasi şahsiyetleri kendileriyle çelişkili ifadeler vermiştir.

Making Sense of Turkey’s Air and Missile Defense Merry-go-round

At some point during 2013, Turkey’s political authority began to treat the in-country development and production of long-range air and missile defense systems as a priority. Soon after, they announced their decision to favor a Chinese offer that came complete with licensed production and the promise of technology transfer. Yet, with this decision came NATO’s objections and challenges around integration and information security. The 2015 decision to rollback the pro-China decision, and opt instead for the indigenous development of air and missile defense systems (in close conjunction with a foreign technological and industrial partner) was triggered by Turkey’s disillusion with the content of China’s technology transfer package. Subsequently, this new partner became a team comprising France and Italy; Turkish industry tied itself to this team in developing Europe’s next-generation missile defense capability. Then came the Turkish government’s 2017 decision to purchase off-the-shelf, standalone S-400 systems from Russia. This decision was an anomaly, and had all the characteristics of a top-down decision cycle running afoul of technical, operational, and industrial criteria. Turkey’s political figures have justified the S-400 order by citing the benefits of in-country production, access to technologies, not to mention the West’s refusal to sell comparable systems; but these justifications have been refuted by the Russian side and/or in discordant statements by Turkish institutions, authorities, and political figures themselves.

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All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace-Cover

ISSN: 2146-7757
Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 2 Sayı
Başlangıç: 2012
Yayıncı: Dış Politika ve Barış Araştırmaları Merkezi, İhsan Doğramacı Barış Vakfı

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