___

• Alt, James, Gary King, and Curt S. Signorino. “Aggregation among Binary, Count, and Duration Models: Estimating the same quantities from different levels of data.” Political Analysis 9 (2001):21-44.
• Azar, Edward E. “The Conflict and Peace Data Bank (COPDAB) Project.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 24 (1980):140-152.
• Azar, Edward E., Richard A. Brody, and Charles A. McClelland, eds. International Events Interaction Analysis: Some Research Considerations. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications, 1972. Baumeister, Roy F., and John Tierney. Willpower: Rediscovering the Greatest Human Strength. New York: Penguin, 2011.
• Bloomfield, Lincoln P., and Allen Moulton. CASCON III: Computer-Aided Systems for Analysis of Local Conflicts. Cambridge, MA: MIT Center for International Studies, 1989.
• Bond, Doug, Joe Bond, Churl Oh, J. Craig Jenkins, and Charles L. Taylor. “Integrated Data for Events Analysis (IDEA): An event typology for automated events data development.” Journal of Peace Research 40(6) (2003):733-745.
• Bond, Joe, Vladimir Petroff, Sean O’Brien, and Doug Bond. “Forecasting turmoil in Indonesia: An application of hidden Markov models.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Montreal, Quebec, October 6-8, 2004.
• Buhaug, Halvard, and Jan Ketil Rod. “Local Determinants of African Civil Wars, 1970-2001.” Political Geography 25(6) (2006):315-335.
• Buhaug, Halvard, Scott Gates, and Paivi Lujala. “Geography, Rebel Capability, and the Duration of Civil Conflict.”Journal of Conflict Resolution 53(4) (2009): 544–569.
• Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. “Introduction to Special Issue on ‘Disaggregating Civil War.’” Journal of Conflict Resolution 24(4) (2009): 590-617.
• Chen, A. H. and T.F. Siems. “The Effects of Terrorism on Global Capital Markets.” European Journal of Political Economy 20 (2004): 349–66.
• Correlates of War Project (COW). “Militarized Interstate Disputes (v3.10).” Accessed November 2011. http://www. correlatesofwar.org/COW2%20Data/MIDs/MID310.html.
• D’Orazio, Vito, James E. Yonamine, and Philip A. Schrodt. “Predicting Intra-State Conflict Onset: An Event Data Approach Using Euclidean and Levenshtein Distance Measures.” Paper prepared for delivery at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, March 31-April 3, 2011.
• Duval, Robert D., and William R. Thompson. “Reconsidering the Aggregate Relationship between Size, Economic Development, and Some Types of Foreign Policy Behavior.” American Journal of Political Science 24(3) (1980): 511-525.
• Eldor, R., and R. Melnick. “Financial Markets and Terrorism.” European Journal of Political Economy 20 (2004): 367–86.
• Fordham, Benjamin O. “Strategic Avoidance and the Diversionary Use of Force.” The Journal of Politics 67 1 (Feb., 2005): 132-153.
• Freeman, John R. “Systematic Sampling, Temporal Aggregation, and the Study of Political Relationships.” Political Analysis 1 (1989): 61-98.
• Gerner, Deborah J., Philip A. Schrodt, and Omur Yilmaz. “Conflict and Mediation Event Observations (CAMEO) Codebook.” Accessed November 2011. http://eventdata.psu.edu/data.dir/cameo.html.
• Gerner, Deborah J., Philip A. Schrodt, Ronald A. Francisco, and Judith L. Weddle. “The Machine Coding of Events From Regional and International Sources.” International Studies Quarterly 38 (1994): 91-119.
• Ghosn, Faten, Glenn Palmer, and Stuart Bremer. “The MID3 Data Set, 1993–2001: Procedures, Coding Rules, and Description.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 21 (2004): 133-154.
• Goldstein, Joshua S. “A Conflict-Cooperation Scale for WEIS Events Data.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 36 (1992): 369-385.
• Goldstein, Joshua S. “Reciprocity in Superpower Relations: An Empirical Analysis.” International Studies Quarterly 35(2) (1991): 195–209.
• Goldstein, Joshua S., and John R. Freeman. Three-Way Street: Strategic Reciprocity in World Politics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1990.
• Hammerli, August, Regula Gattiker, and Reto Weyermann. “Conflict and Cooperation in an Actors’ Network of Chechnya Based on Event Data.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 50 (2006): 159-175.
• Harff, Barbara, and Ted Robert Gurr. “Systematic Early Warning of Humanitarian Emergencies.” Journal of Peace Research 35(5)(2001): 359-371.
• Hermann, Charles, Maurice A. East, Margaret G. Hermann, Barbara G. Salamore, and Stephen A. Salamore. CREON: A Foreign Events Data Sets. Beverly Hills: Sage, 1973.
• Jenkins, J. Craig, and Doug Bond. “Conflict-Carrying Capacity, Political Crisis, and Reconstruction: A Framework for the Early Warning of Political System Vulnerability.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 45(1) (Feb., 2001): 3-31.
• Leetaru, Kalev, and Philip A. Schrodt. “GDELT: Global Data on Events, Location and Tone, 1979-2012.” Paper presented at the International Studies Association conference, San Francisco, April 2013.
• Leng, Russell J. Behavioral Correlates of War, 1816-1975 (ICPSR 8606). Ann Arbor: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research, 1987.
• Lujala, Paivi, Jan Ketil Rod, and Nadja Thieme. “Fighting over Oil: Introducing a New Dataset.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 24(3) (2007): 239–256.
• Mangion-Zammit, Andrew, Michael Dewar, Visakan Kadirkamanathan, and Guido Sanguinetti. “Point Process Modeling of the Afghan War Diary.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 109(31) (2012): 12414– 12419.
• McClelland, Charles A. World Event/Interaction Survey Codebook (ICPSR 5211). Ann Arbor: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research, 1976.
• McGowan, Patrick, Harvey Starr, Gretchen Hower, Richard L. Merrit, and Dina A. Zinnes.
• Mikhaylov, Slava, Michael Laver, and Kenneth Benoit. “Coder Reliability and Misclassification in the Human Coding of Party Manifestos.” Political Analysis 20(1) (Winter 2012): 78-91.
• O’Brien, Sean. “Crisis Early Warning and Decision Support: Contemporary Approaches and Thoughts on Future Research.” International Studies Review 12(1) (2010): 87-104.
• Ostby, Gudrun. Ragnhild Nordas and Jan Ketil Rod. “Regional Inequalities and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa.” International Studies Quarterly 53(2) (2009): 301–324.
• Pevehouse, Jon C., and Joshua S. Goldstein. Serbian Compliance or Defiance in Kosovo? Statistical Analysis and Real-Time Predictions.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 43(4) (1999): 538-546.
• Raleigh, Clionadh, Andrew Linke, Havard Hegre, and Joakim Karlsen. “Introducing ACLED: An Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset.” Journal of Peace Research 47(5) (2010): 651-660.
• Schneider, Gerald and Vera E. Troeger. “War and the Economy: Stock Market Reactions to International Conflicts.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 50 (5) (Oct., 2006): 623-645.
• Schrodt, Philip A. “Early Warning of Conflict in Southern Lebanon using Hidden Markov Models.” In The Understanding and Management of Global Violence: New Approaches to Theory and Research on Protracted Conflict, edited by Harvey Starr, 131-162. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1999.
• Schrodt, Philip A. “Forecasting Conflict in the Balkans using Hidden Markov Models.” Paper presented at the American Political Science Association Conference, Washington, DC, August 31-September 3, 2000.
• Schrodt, Philip A. “Automated Coding of International Event Data Using Sparse Parsing Techniques.” Paper presented at the International Studies Association Conference, Chicago, IL, October 21-24, 2001.
• Schrodt, Philip A., Omur Yilmaz, and Deborah J. Gerner. ““Evaluating Ripeness” and “Hurting Stalemate” in Mediated International Conflicts: An Event Data Study of the Middle East, Balkans, and West Africa.” Paper presented at the International Studies Association conference, Portland, Oregon, 2003.
• Schrodt, Philip A., Shannon G. Davis, and Judith L. Weddle. “Political Science: KEDS—A Program for the Machine Coding of Event Data.”Accessed November 2012. http://eventdata.psu.edu/papers.dir/SSCR.pdf.
• Schrodt, Philip A., and Christopher Donald. “Machine Coding of Events Data.” Paper presented at International Studies Association conference, Washington DC, 1990. http://eventdata.psu.edu/papers.dir/ISA.90.pdf.
• Schrodt, Philip A., and Deborah J. Gerner. “Analyzing the Dynamics of International Mediation Processes in the Middle East and the Former Yugoslavia.” Paper presented at the International Studies Association conference, Chicago, February 21-24, 2001. http://eventdata.psu.edu/papers.dir/Mediation.ISA01.pdf.
• Schrodt, Philip A., Deborah J. Gerner, and Omur Yilmaz. “Using Event Data to Monitor Contemporary Conflict in the Israel-Palestine Dyad.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Montreal, Quebec, 2004.
• Shearer, Robert. “Forecasting Israeli-Palestinian Conflict with Hidden Markov Models.” Military Operations Research 12(4) (2007): 5-15.
• Shellman, Stephen M. “Time Series Intervals and Statistical Inference: The Effects of Temporal Aggregation on Event Data Analysis.” Security Studies 12(1) (2004): 97-104.
• Shellman, Stephen M., and Brandon Stewart. “Predicting Risk Factors Associates with Forced Migration: An Early Warning Model of Haitian Flight.” Civil Wars 9(2) (2007a): 174-199.
• Sherman, Frank L., and Laura Neack. “Imagining the Possibilities: The Prospects of Isolating the Genome of International Conflict from the SHERFACS Datasets.” In International Event Data Developments: DDIR Phase II, edited by Richard L. Merritt, Robert G. Muncaster, and Dina A. Zinnes. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1993.
• Taylor, Charles L. World Handbook of Political and Social Indicators. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1972. Tetlock, Philip E. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2005.
• Van Brackle, David M., and Janet E. Wedgwood, “Event Coding for HSCB Modeling – Challenges and Approaches.” Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Laboratories. Accessed July 5, 2013. http://www.atl.external.lmco. com/papers/1916.pdf.
• Weidmann, Mils B., and Michael Callen. “Violence and Election Fraud: Evidence from Afghanistan.”British Journal of Political Science 43(1) (2013): 53–75.
• Yonamine, James E. “Predicting Future Levels of Violence in Afghanistan Districts Using GDELT.” March 2013. Unpublished. http://jayyonamine.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Predicting-Future-Levels-of-Violence-inAfghanistan-Districts-using-GDELT.pdf.