The Impacts of Covid-19: An Econometric Analysis of Crude Oil Prices and Rice Prices in the World

This study targeted to disclose the impact of COVID-19 on the relationship among world crude oil prices and world rice prices. It depended on data collected from different resources and covered the period extend from Jan. 2016 to May 2020. The data was divided into two periods: before COVID-19 from Jan. 2016 to Nov. 2019 and after the outbreak of COVID-19 from Dec. 2019 to May 2020. EngelGranger Two Steps Procedure and ARDL bounds methods of analysis were used to analyze data before and after outbreaks of COVID-19, respectively. The result for the period before outbreaks of covid-9 revealed long-run co-integration among crude oil and rice prices series. Also, it recorded that the coefficient of adjustment parameter for rice showed negative (-0.349) and significant (critical tvalue= -3.29), referring to the present of short-run relationship and meaning that model able to correct its past time instability. While the result for the period after outbreaks of COVID-19 didn't discover any the long run relationship between world crude oil prices and world rice prices. This result may be due to the consequences and lockdown of COVID-19. Consequently, these results may put down world food security situations.

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