Alp Kaan KİLCİ, Serhat YALÇINER, Gökhan AYDIN, Nahit ÖZDAYI

FİFA Dünya Kupası Eleme Turlarında Turu Geçen ve Elenen Takımları Ayırt Eden Oyun-İçi İstatistiklerin Belirlenmesi: 2010-2022 Yılları Arasında Düzenlenen Dünya Kupası Organizasyonları Üzerine Bir Araştırma

Bu çalışmanın amacı, FİFA Dünya Kupasında grup aşamalarından sonra yer alan eleme turlarındaki takımları ayırt eden oyun içi istatistiklerinin ve futbolda bu istatistiklerin yıldan yıla nasıl değiştiğinin belirlenmesidir. Çalışmada 2010, 2014, 2018 ve 2022 yıllarında gerçekleştirilen son dört Dünya Kupası organizasyonlarında oynanan son 16 turu, çeyrek final, yarı final ve final karşılaşmaları incelenmiştir. Veriler resmî FİFA ve Sofascore web sitelerinden toplanmıştır. Takımlar “turu geçen” ve “elenen” olarak iki gruba ayrılmış ve penaltılara giden müsabakalar analize dahil edilmemiştir. Toplanan veriler SPSS 26 programı ile analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen verilerin tanımlayıcı istatistikleri belirlenmiş, turu geçen ve elenen takımlar arasındaki ayırt edici değişkenleri belirlemek için ise diskriminant analizi kullanılmıştır. Çalışma bulgularına göre eleme turlarında ilk golü atmanın, ikinci yarıda atılan gol sayısının, toplam şutların (ceza sahası içi-dışı), kornerlerin, faul sayısının, kaleci kurtarışlarının, ikili mücadele kazanma sayısının, pas sayısının, başarılı uzun topun ve top sürme değişkenlerinin turu geçen ve elenen takımları ayırt edici oyun içi istatistikler olduğu belirlenmiştir. Çalışma sonuçları, Dünya Kupası’nda her yıl takımların başarısındaki ayırt edici değişkenlerin farklılaştığını, dolayısı ile futbol anlayışının yıldan yıla değiştiğini ve genel itibari ile ilk golü atan takımların eleme turlarında daha başarılı olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

FİFA, Dünya Kupası, Diskriminant, Eleme Turu

An Investigation into In-Game Statistics Distinguishing Teams Advancing and Eliminated in FIFA World Cup Qualifying Rounds: A Study on World Cup Tournaments Organized between 2010-2022

The purpose of this study is to determine the in-game statistics that differentiate teams in the elimination rounds of the FIFA World Cup after the group stage, and how these statistics change from year to year in football. The round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals, and final matches played in the last four World Cup events held in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022 were analyzed. The data was collected from official FIFA and Sofascore websites. The teams were divided into two groups, "advancing" and "eliminated," and penalty shootouts were not included in the analysis. The collected data was analyzed using SPSS 26 program. The descriptive statistics of the obtained data were determined, and discriminant analysis was used to identify the differentiating variables between the advancing and eliminated teams. According to the study findings, the first goal scored, goals scored in the second half, total shots (inside and outside the penalty area), corners, fouls, goalkeeper saves, duels won, passes, successful long balls, and dribbling were found to be the in-game statistics that differentiate the advancing and eliminated teams in the elimination rounds. The study results show that the differentiating variables for teams' success in the World Cup vary from year to year, indicating a change in football understanding, and overall, teams that score the first goal are more successful in the elimination rounds.

Keywords:

FIFA, World Cup, Discriminant, Qualification,

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