Finansal Piyasaların Türkiye’nin Ekonomik Büyümesindeki Rolü

Amaç: Araştırmanın amacı Türkiye’deki bankacılık sektörünün ve hisse senedi piyasasının ekonomik büyüme ile olan ilişkisinin ekonometrik olarak analizidir. Tasarım/Yöntem: Araştırma modelinde, toplam ticari banka kredileri ve hisse senedi piyasasının toplam kapitalizasyonunun ekonomik büyüme ile olan ilişkisi incelenmiştir. Eşbütünleşme testi ve vektör hata düzeltme modeli (VECM) sonrası uygulanan Granger nedensellik testi ile nedenselliğin yönü belirlenmiştir. Bulgular: Çalışmanın bulgularında, gerek öngörülere uygun sonuçlar gerekse öngörülerden ayrılan sonuçlara rastlanmıştır. Toplam ticari banka kredilerinden ekonomik büyümeye doğru istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir nedensellik belirlenmiştir. Fakat hisse senedi piyasasının toplam kapitalizasyonundan ekonomik büyümeye doğru anlamlı bir nedensellik ilişkisine rastlanmamıştır. Sınırlılıklar: Kullanılan veri setinin sadece iki değişken ve Türkiye üzerine olması araştırmanın sınırlılıklarıdır. Özgünlük/Değer: 2008’de başlayan küresel kriz sonrası Türkiye ekonomisindeki büyümenin şekillenmesinde bankacılık ve hisse senedi piyasanın oynadığı rolün karşılaştırmalı olarak incelenmesi çalışmaya özgünlük katmaktadır. Ayrıca, ulaşılan bulguların ekonomi yönetimi ve politika yapıcılara yön gösterecek nitelikte olduğu düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Bankacılık, Hisse Senedi Piyasası, Ekonomik Büyüme

The Role of Financial Markets in Turkey’s Economic Growth

Purpose: The purpose of the study is to provide an econometric analysis of the relationship among Turkey’s economic growth, stock market and banking. Design/Methodology: In the model, economic growth’s relationships with both total stock market capitalization and total bank commercial credits are examined. Following a co-integration test and a vector error correction model (VECM), the direction of causality is identified via Granger causality test. Findings: The findings include results of which some are in line with predictions while some are not. A statistically significant causality relationship is identified from total bank commercial credits towards economic growth. However, there is not a statistically significant causality relationship from stock market total capitalization towards economic growth. Limitations: The use of a two-variable data set that is on Turkey only constitutes the limitation of the study. Originality/Value: The investigation of the comperative roles of the banking and stock market that they played in shaping Turkey’s economic growth after the global crisis of 2008 constitutes the original value of the research. Moreover, it is considered that the findings are in the quality of proving the economic management and policymakers with useful insights.

Keywords:

Banking, Stock Market, Economic Growth,

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