Semih KALE, Olcay HİSAR, Fatih MUTLU, Tuba EJDER

Effect of Climate Change on Annual Streamflow of Bakırçay River

Küresel ısınma ve bundan kaynaklanan iklim değişikliği doğal kaynakların sürdürülebilirliği açısından önemli sorunlara neden olmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye'nin batısında yer alan Ege Denizi kıyısındaki 9 meteoroloji gözlem istasyonuna ait 43 yıllık sıcaklık, yağış, buharlaşma gibi meteorolojik parametreler ile aynı bölgede yer alan ve Ege Denizine dökülen Bakırçay nehrine ait 17 yıllık veri seti kullanılmıştır. İklim parametreleri ile nehir akış hızına ait değişim noktalarının belirlenmesi için Pettitt değişim noktası analizi, eğilimlerin belirlendiği trend analizleri için Box-Jenkins yöntemi ve ARIMA modeli, bu parametreler arasındaki ilişkileri belirlemek için ise Kendall's Tau ve Spearman's rho korelasyon testleri kullanılmıştır. Pettitt testi sonucu sıcaklık, buharlaşma ve yağış miktarları için değişim yılları sırasıyla 1997, 1993 ve 1993 iken Bakırçay nehrinin akış hızı için ise 2008 olarak belirlenmiştir. Gerçekleştirilen trend analizleri sonucunda sıcaklık ve buharlaşma miktarında artış; yağış miktarı ve nehir akış hızında ise azalış olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ancak bu parametrelerin yıllara göre değişimi ile iklim parametreleri ve nehir akış hızı arasındaki korelasyonların istatistiksel olarak önemsiz olduğu belirlenmiştir (p>0.05). Sonuç olarak iklim değişikliğinin nehir akış hızları üzerine olan etkilerinin değişken olabileceği, küresel ısınmanın nehir sistemleri üzerine etkilerinin belirlenmesinde antropojenik etkiler, coğrafi konum, tarımsal faaliyetler, yerleşim yerleri ve nüfus yoğunluğu gibi birçok faktörün de dikkate alınması gerektiği düşünülmektedir. Ayrıca iklim değişikliğinin nehirlerin hidrolojik süreçleri üzerine olan etkilerinin değerlendirilmesinde bölgeye ve amaca uygun değerlendirme modellerinin kullanılması ve özelleştirilmiş yönetim stratejilerinin geliştirilmesi önerilmektedir

İklim Değişikliğinin Bakırçay Nehrinin Yıllık Akışı Üzerine Etkisi

Global warming and its impacts are known cause serious problems in terms of the sustainability of natural resources. In this study, 43-years of meteorological parameters such as temperature, precipitation and evaporation belong to 9 meteorological observation stations in the coast of Aegean Sea, which is in the west of Turkey and 17years of data belongs to Bakırçay river which is in the same area with the stations and flow into the Aegean Sea, were used. The Pettitt change-point analysis was used to determine the change points belonging to climatic parameters and streamflow of the river. In addition, the Box-Jenkins method and the ARIMA model were used for trend analyses with which trends were determined. Furthermore, Kendall's tau and Spearman's correlation tests were used, to determine the relationship between the two parameters. As a result of the Pettitt test, while the change years for evaporation, temperature and precipitation were determined to be 1997, 1993 and 1993 respectively, the change years for the streamflow of Bakırçay river was determined to be 2008. As a result of the trend analyses, it could be determined that there was a noticeable increase in temperature and evaporation values, and that there was a decrease in the streamflow of the river. However, it was also determined that the correlations between the river streamflow and climatic parameters, and the change of these parameters according to years were determined to be statistically insignificant (p>0.05). As a result, it is considered that the effects of climate change on river streamflow could be changeable and that many factors such as anthropogenic effects, geographical location, agricultural activities, residential areas and population density should be taken into account in determining the effects of global warming on river systems. It is suggested that evaluation models and management strategies specified regionally and appropriate to the objective be used in evaluating the effects of the climate change on the hydrological processes of rivers

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