FİNANSAL KÜRESELLEŞME-PARA KRİZİ NEDENSELLİĞİ VE PARA KRİZLERİNİN TAHMİN EDİLEBİLİRLİĞİ: TÜRKİYE, 1990–2002

Öz Bu çalisma, finansal küresellesme ile para krizleri arasinda iktisadi bir nedensellik iliskisi olup olmadigini test etmek ve para krizlerinin tahmin olasiliklarini hesaplamak üzere yapilmistir. Çalisma 1990–2002 dönemi Türkiye ekonomisi aylik zaman serisi verilerini kapsamaktadir. Para krizi çikma olasiliklari bes model kapsaminda ve toplam 31 açiklayici degisken kullanilarak hesaplanmistir. Bulgular, Türkiye örneginde ve 1990–2002 dönemi için finansal küresellesme olgusunun para krizlerinin % 10 önem seviyesinde Granger nedeni oldugunu göstermektedir.

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EKONOMETRI Modern Econometrics: An Introduction Projectbereich Discussion Paper Review of Radical Political Economics Küresellesme Sürecinde Türkiye Ekonomisi, Bölüsüm, Birikim ve Büyüme “ Finansal Kriz Öncü Göstergeleri Ve Türkiye Finansal Kir