MINT Ülkelerinde Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Nedensellik Analizi

Bu çalışmada, MINT ülkelerinde enerji tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu kapsamda, 1971-2014 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak panel veri analizi yapılmıştır. Ampirik analiz kısmında, Emirmahmutoğlu ve Köse (2011) tarafından geliştirilen Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Tüm panel için uygulanan nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre, enerji tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme arasında herhangi nedensellik ilişkisinin olmadığı belirlenmiştir. Bu sonuçlara göre, MINT ülkelerinde yansızlık hipotezinin geçerli olduğu görülmüştür. Ülkelere özgü nedensellik testi sonuçları ise Meksika’da ekonomik büyümeden enerji tüketimine doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu göstermiştir. Ancak Endonezya ve Nijerya ve Türkiye’de herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunamamıştır. Bu bulgular ışığında, Meksika’da “koruma hipotezinin”,  diğer ülkelerde ise “yansızlık hipotezinin” geçerli olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

The Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in MINT Countries: Panel Causality Analysis

In this study, it is aimed to examine the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in MINT countries. In this context, panel data analysis was carried out using annual data for 1971-2014 period. In the empirical analysis section, the Granger causality test developed by Emirmahmutoğlu and Köse (2011) was applied. According to the results of the causality test applied to the all panel, it is determined that there is no causality relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. According to these results, “neutrality hypothesis” is valid in MINT countries. Country-specific causality test results showed that there is a one way causality relationship from economic growth to energy consumption in Mexico. However, no causality relationship has been found in the Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey. In the light of these findings, it was reached that “conservation hypothesis” is valid in Mexico whereas “neutrality hypothesis” is valid in other countries. 

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