The potential effects of future climate change on suitable habitat for the Taiwan partridge ( Arborophila crudigularis ): an ensemble-based forecasting method

Climate change is considered to be one of the greatest threats to biodiversity in this century, especially for range-restrictedisland species. This study explored the potential effects of climate change onArborophila crudigularis , a weak-flying endemic bird speciesin Taiwan. The potential effects of climate change on climatically suitable habitat forA. crudigulariswere analyzed in biomod2 andArcGIS software. Future climate change could increase the availability of climatically suitable habitat forA. crudigulariswhile decreasingthe mean suitability for both the entire suitable area and the area with known presence records. By 2050 and 2080, climatically suitablehabitat is expected to increase by an average of 4.57% and 5.18%, respectively; the mean suitability of the entire climatically suitablehabitat is expected to decrease by 4.80% and 6.61%; and the mean suitability of known presence records is expected to decrease by 2.70%and 4.62%, respectively. Future climate change will not be disastrous forA. crudigularisin Taiwan. Future efforts to conserve this speciesshould focus on northwestern Taiwan.

PDF

___

Allouche O, Tsoar A, Kadmon R (2006). Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS). J Appl Ecol 43: 1223-1232.
Barbet-Massin M, Rome Q, Muller F, Perrard A, Villemant C, Jiguet F (2013). Climate change increases the risk of invasion by the yellow-legged hornet. Biol Conserv 157: 4-10.
Chen IC, Hill JK, Ohlemüller R, Roy DB, Thomas CD (2011). Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science 333: 1024-1026.
Cohen J (1960). A coefficient of agreement for nominal scales. Educ Psychol Meas 20: 37-46.
Conlisk E, Syphard AD, Franklin J, Flint L, Flint A, Regan H (2013). Uncertainty in assessing the impacts of global change with coupled dynamic species distribution and population models. Glob Change Boil 19: 858-869.
Cramer W, Bondeau A, Woodward FI, Prentice IC, Betts RA, Brovkin V, Cox PM, Fisher V, Foley JA, Friend AD (2001). Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO 2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models. Glob Change Boil 7: 357-373.
DAmen M, Bombi P, Pearman PB, Schmatz DR, Zimmermann NE, Bologna MA (2011). Will climate change reduce the efficacy of protected areas for amphibian conservation in Italy? Biol Conserv 144: 989-997.
Dawson TP, Jackson ST, House JI, Prentice IC, Mace GM (2011). Beyond predictions: biodiversity conservation in a changing climate. Science 332: 53-58.
Diniz-Filho JAF, Mauricio Bini L, Fernando Rangel T, Loyola RD, Hof C, Nogués-Bravo D, Araújo MB (2009). Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate change. Ecography 32: 897-906.
Fielding AH, Bell JF (1997). A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environ Conserv 24: 38-49.
Franklin J (2010). Moving beyond static species distribution models in support of conservation biogeography. Divers Distrib 16: 321-330.
Giovanelli G, de Siqueira MF, Haddad CF, Alexandrino J (2010). Modeling a spatially restricted distribution in the Neotropics: how the size of calibration area affects the performance of five presence-only methods. Ecol Model 221: 215-224.
Guisan A, Thuiller W (2005). Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecol Lett 8: 993-1009.
Guo Q, Liu Y (2010). ModEco: an integrated software package for ecological niche modeling. Ecography 33: 637-642.
Hannah L, Roehrdanz PR, Ikegami M, Shepard AV, Shaw MR, Tabor G, Zhi L, Marquet PA, Hijmans RJ (2013). Climate change, wine, and conservation. P Natl Acad Sci USA 110: 6907-6912.
Hazen EL, Jorgensen S, Rykaczewski RR, Bograd SJ, Foley DG, Jonsen ID, Shaffer SA, Dunne JP, Costa DP, Crowder LB et al. (2013). Predicted habitat shifts of Pacific top predators in a changing climate. Nat Clim Change 3: 234-238.
Hellmann JJ, Byers JE, Bierwagen BG, Dukes JS (2008). Five potential consequences of climate change for invasive species. Conserv Biol 22: 534-543.
Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005). Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25: 1965-1978.
IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC.
IUCN (2015). The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC.
Ko CY, Root TL, Lin SH, Schneider SH, Lee PF (2012). Global change projections for Taiwan island birds: linking current and future distributions. Nat Conserv 2: 21-40.
Lenoir J, Gégout J, Marquet P, De Ruffray P, Brisse H (2008). A significant upward shift in plant species optimum elevation during the 20th century. Science 320: 1768-1771.
Lu N, Jing Y, Lloyd H, Sun YH (2012). Assessing the distributions and potential risks from climate change for the Sichuan Jay (Perisoreus internigrans). Condor 114: 365-376.
Olson LE, Sauder JD, Albrecht NM, Vinkey RS, Cushman SA, Schwartz MK (2014). Modeling the effects of dispersal and patch size on predicted fisher (Pekania [ Martes ] pennanti ) distribution in the US Rocky Mountains. Biol Conserv 169: 89-98.
Pearson RG, Dawson TP (2003). Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecol Biogeogr 12: 361-371.
Pearson RG, Thuiller W, Araújo MB, Martinez-Meyer E, Brotons L, McClean C, Miles L, Segurado P, Dawson TP, Lees DC (2006). Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction. J Biogeogr 33: 1704-1711.
Rödder D, Engler J (2011). Quantitative metrics of overlaps in Grinnellian niches: advances and possible drawbacks. Global Ecol Biogeogr 20: 915-927.
Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (2014). Global Biodiversity Outlook 4. Montreal, Canada: Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
Sinclair SJ, White MD, Newell GR (2010). How useful are species distribution models for managing biodiversity under future climates? Ecol Soc 15: 8.
Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, Bakkenes M, Beaumont LJ, Collingham YC, Erasmus BF, De Siqueira MF, Grainger A, Hannah L et al. (2004). Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427: 145-148.
Thuiller W (2004). Patterns and uncertainties of species range shifts under climate change. Glob Change Biol 10: 2020-2027.
Thuiller W, Lafourcade B, Engler R, Araújo MB (2009). BIOMODa platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Ecography 32: 369-373.
Zhang RZ (1999). Zoogeography of China. Beijing, China: Science Press (in Chinese).