The situation of sturgeons (Acipenseriformes) in the Caspian Sea which many experts currently assess as "Catastrophic", is discussed. In today's complex environment of the region, traditional approaches to recovery of sturgeon stocks, based on the classical biological paradigm of stocks management already untenable. A new approach based on the extended paradigm consisting along with classical representations, ideas and methods of "Strategic planning" is proposed. Developed within the framework of this approach the methodology opens up wide possibilities to choose adequate recovery strategy in the conditions of many challenges today facing Caspian sturgeon management: Large-scale poaching, pollution of spawning rivers and sea, destruction of a unified management system (after the collapse of the USSR), transgression of the sea, invasions, etc
___
Andrews, K. 1987. The Concept of Corporate Strategy. Illinois: Irwin Homewood, 387 pp.
Anonymous 2006. National Sturgeon Management Plan (To implement the Regional Strategy for the conservation and sustainable management of sturgeon populations in the NW Black Sea and Lower Danube River according to CITES) (v.03 of 04/25/2006) http://www.dstf.eu/ assets/Uploads/documents/NAP/National-Sturgeon- Management-Plan-Romania.pdf (accessed 20/11/14).
Ansoff, H.I. 1984. Implanting Strategic Management. Prentice Hall International, New York, 586 pp.
Balston, B. and Wilson, I. 2006. The Scenario Planning Handbook: Development strategies in uncertain times Pearson, Harlow, 243 pp.
Beverton, R.J.H. and Holt, S.J. 1957. On the Dynamics of Exploited Fish Populations. Fisheries Investigations Series 2, UK Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Fisheries, vol. 19, London, 533 pp.
Caddy, J.F. 2002. Limit reference points, traffic lights, and holistic approaches to fisheries management with minimal stock assessment input. Fisheries Research, 56: 133-137.
Chesnokov, S. V. 1982. Determinacy Analysis of Socio- economic Data. Nauka, Moscow, 371 pp. (in Russian).
Davies, S.L. and Bergh, P.E. 2001. SWOT analysis. Report of the national workshop on fisheries monitoring control and surveillance in support of fisheries management, Goa, India, 12-17 February, FI: GCP/INT/648/NOR: Field Report (En), FAO, Rome, 148 pp.
Eden, C. 1989. Using Cognitive Mapping for Strategic Options Development and Analysis. In: J. Rosenhead (Ed.), Rational Analysis for a Problematic World. Wiley, Chichester: 127-141.
FAO, 1996. Precautionary approach to fisheries. Scientific papers. FAO Fisheries Technical Paper, 350/2. Rome, FAO http://www.fao.org/docrep/003/W1238E/W1238E00.H TM (accessed 20/11/14). 210 p.
FAO, 2004a. Review of the Survey Methodology, Stock Assessments and Setting of TAC for Caspian Sturgeon Fisheries (prepared for CITES). Rome, Italy. http://www.caspianenvironment.org/.../Annex%206%.. (Accessed 20/11/14).
FAO, 2004b. Review of the Methodology for Stock Assessment and Setting of Total Allowable Catches for Caspian Sea Sturgeon Fisheries (prepared for CITES). FAO, Rome, 56 p.
FAO, 2008. Report of the FAO and CITES Technical Workshop. http://www.fao.org/docrep/012/al086b/al086b00.pdf (accessed 20/11/14). Rome, Italy.
FAO, 2012. EAF Planning and Implementation Tools. SWOT (strength, weaknesses, Opportunities and threat) ANALYSIS, http://www.fao.org/fishery/eaf- net/eaftool/eaf_tool_45/en (accessed 20/11/14).
Garcia, S.M., Zerbi, A., Aliaume, C., Do Chi, T., and Lasserre, G. 2003. The ecosystem approach to fisheries. Issues, terminology, principles, institutional foundations, implementation and outlook. Scientific papers. FAO Fisheries Technical Paper. No. 443. Rome, http://www.fao.org/fishery/topic/13261/en 20/11/14. 71 p. (accessed
Georghiou, L., Cassingena, J., Harper, J., Keenan, M., Miles, I. and Popper, R. (Eds.) 2008. The Handbook of Technology Foresight. Edward Elgar. Cheltenham:
Pilling G.M., van der Kooji J., Daskalov G.M., Cotter A.J.R. and Metcalfe J.D. 2008. Overview of current best world practice in fish stock assessment and management, with specific reference to Caspian Sea fisheries. The European Commission, TACIS Programme. CEFAS. UK. http://www.cefas.defra.gov. uk/publications/techrep/tech141.pdf (accessed 20/11/14).
IEHIAS 2012. Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment estimation, 2011 http://www.integrated-assessment. Eu /guidebook/expert_estimation (accessed 20/11/14).
IUCN 2005. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, Version 2012.2. http://www.iucnredlist.org (accessed 20/11/14).
Karayev, R.A. 2005. Stock Assessment and Strategic Planning. FRAG report (Tehran, 15-16 October 2005) http://www.caspianenvironment.org/newsite/DocCente r/Meetings/2005/FRAG2/ANNEX%2012%20Stock%2 0Ass%20&%20Strategic%20Planning%20- %20Karayev.doc (accessed 20/11/14).
Karayev, R.A. 2010. Sustainable management of Caspian sturgeon. http://www.ecolab.bas.bg/main/Events/unesco- ws/docs/ws-present/Karayev.doc (accessed 20/11/14).
Karayev, R.A. et al. 2003. Environmental Monitoring of Caspian Oilfields: New Paradigm, New Solutions. Processing of the 5th International Interdisciplinary Conference on Environment. London.
Karayev, R.A. 2003a. Cognitive modelling for decision making in the strategic planning. Proc. of the IY-th Russian Symp. "Strategic Planning and Evolution of Enterprises". Moscow: CEMI of RAS (in Russian).
Karayev, R.A. 2003b. Fuzzy cognitive maps for generation and analysis of managerial decisions. The project awarded with the Diploma of the RAS and the Grant of the International Science Foundation of Economy Researches http://www.cemi.rssi.ru/fond-fedorenko/pr_2003.htm. N.P. Fedorenko
Karayev, R.A. 2006. Modeling Caspian sturgeon population dynamics: a new paradigm and new technology. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 63(6): 980-994.
Karayev, R.A. 2012. Sustainable management of Caspian Sea sturgeon fisheries. Strategic approach. Proc. of the Russian symposium, Strategic planning and evolution of enterprises, CEMI RAS, Moscow: 71-83.
Karayev, R.A. 2014. Cognitive approach to the analysis and choice of innovation strategies of the enterprises. Journal of Investment and Management, 3(1): 1-6.
Karayev, R.A. and Payne, A.I. 2006. Towards developing a recovery strategy for the sturgeon stock of the Caspian Sea. Proc. of the Intern. Conf. Present state and Ways of Improvement of Scientific Investigations in the Caspian basin, Moscow-Astrakhan: 140-144.
Karayev, R.A. et al. 2003. Models of the scenario-based dynamic analysis. Transactions of the National Academy of Sciences, 23(3): 33-36 (in Russian).
Lindgren, M. and Bandhold, H. 2009. Scenario planning. The Link Between Future and Strategy. New York: Palgrave MacMillan.
Meyer, M. and Booker, J. 1991. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide, Academic Press. London.
Nikolsky, G. 1976. The theory of the dynamics of fish stocks as a biological basis for the rational use and reproduction of fish resources. Food industries, Moscow, 447 pp. (in Russian).
Pourkazemi, M. 2006. Caspian Sea sturgeon conservation and fisheries: Past present and future. Journal of Appled Ichthyology, 22: 12-16.
RapidBi 2011. The PESTLE Analysis Tool and Template. http://www.rapidbi.com/created/the-PESTLE-analysis- tool.html (accessed 20/11/14).
Roberts, F. 1976. Discreet mathematical models with application to social, biological and ecological issues, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc.
RSC: Expert Panels: Manual of Procedures & Guidelines. 2004. The Royal Society of Canada. The Canadian Academy of the Sciences and Humanities. https://rsc- src.ca/sites/default/files/pdf/ExpertPanel_ManualofPro ceduralGuidelines.pdf (accessed 20/11/14).
Saaty, T. L. 1980. The analytic hierarchy process: Planning, priority setting, resource allocation, McGraw-Hill, New York.
Sandu, G., Reinartz, R. and Bloeseh, J. 2013. Sturgeon- 2020. A program for the protection and rehabilitation of Danube sturgeons. Danube Sturgeon Task Force (DSTF) and EU Strategy for the Danube River (EUSDR) Priority Area (PA). 6 - Biodiversity. http://www.google.az/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&sou rce=web&cd=18&ved=0CFQQFjAHOAo&url=http%3 A%2F%2Fwww.icpdr.org%2Fmain%2Fsites%2Fdefau lt%2Ffiles%2Fnodes%2Fdocuments%2Fsturgeon2020. pdf&ei=hActVPi1CcT8ywPtmoGoBw&usg=AFQjCN HA4EkbJlRaKfZrSHC-Vbm9vFcezA 20/11/14). (accessed
Simon, H. 1978. Heuristic problem solving: the next advance Researches, 6: 12-25. research. Operational
Waterman, D.A. 1986. A Guide to Expert Systems. Addison-Wesley Publishing, New York, 471 pp.