Time-dependent model for earthquake occurrence and effects of design spectra on structural performance: a case study from the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey

We have investigated the time-dependent seismicity model of the earthquake occurrence on a regional basis through the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). To that end, the studied region has been subdivided into 7 seismogenic zones considering the seismotectonic criteria, and then regional time and magnitude predictable (RTIMAP) model has been performed. Intervened times and magnitudes of main shocks produced in each zone have predictive properties defined by the RTIMAP. The probabilities of the next main shocks in 5 decades and the magnitudes of the next events have been estimated using the formation time and magnitude of the past events in the zones. In the second step of the study, we have considered 17 settlements located on the NAFZ to perform point-based site-specific seismic hazard analyses and to determine the design spectra and earthquake parameters using updated Turkish Earthquake Hazard Map. Eigen value and static adaptive pushover analyses have been applied for the sample reinforced concrete building using the design spectra obtained from each settlement. This sample building has been modelled with the same structural characteristics (i.e. material strength, column and beams, applied loads, etc.) for all of the settlements. We have determined that the earthquake building parameters differ from each other which indicates the significance of site-specific seismicity characteristics on the building performance.

Keywords:

North Anatolian Fault Zone seismic hazard, earthquake prediction, time-dependent model, site-specific spectra, adaptive static analysis,

PDF

___

Al-Tarazi E, 2007, EARTHQ SPECTRA, V23, P1, DOI 10.1193/1.2430543
AMBRASEYS NN, 1970, TECTONOPHYSICS, V9, P143, DOI 10.1016/0040-1951(70)90014-4
[Anonymous], 1998, TURK SEISM DES COD .
Antoniou S, 2004, J EARTHQ ENG, V8, P643, DOI 10.1142/S136324690400150X
Antoniou S, 2004, J EARTHQ ENG, V8, P497, DOI 10.1142/S1363246904001511
Antoniou S, 2003, USER MANUAL .
Barka A, 1992, ANN TECTON, V6, P64 .
Bayliss TJ, 2007, NAT HAZARD EARTH SYS, V7, P345, DOI 10.5194/nhess-7-345-2007
Bekler T, 2019, J APPL GEOPHYS, V163, P31, DOI 10.1016/j.jappgeo.2019.02.009
Bektas O, 2007, TURK J EARTH SCI, V16, P1
Borcherdt RD, 2004, PHARM PROFILING DRUG, P1
Bozkurt E, 2001, GEODIN ACTA, V14, P3, DOI 10.1016/S0985-3111(01)01066-X
Burton PW, 2004, TECTONOPHYSICS, V390, P117, DOI 10.1016/j.tecto.2004.03.020
Buyuksarac A, 2013, J SEISMOL, V17, P425, DOI 10.1007/s10950-012-9328-1
Caputo M, 1974, NATO ADV STUDY I SER, V3
Casarotti C, 2007, B EARTHQ ENG, V5, P377, DOI 10.1007/s10518-007-9031-8
Chingtham P, 2016, NAT HAZARDS, V80, P1783, DOI 10.1007/s11069-015-2031-0
CORNELL CA, 1968, B SEISMOL SOC AM, V58, P1583
Corral A, 2006, TECTONOPHYSICS, V424, P177, DOI 10.1016/j.tecto.2006.03.035
DEWEY JW, 1976, B SEISMOL SOC AM, V66, P843
Ekinci YL, 2021, GEOPHYS J INT, V224, P923, DOI 10.1093/gji/ggaa492
Ekinci YL, 2020, PURE APPL GEOPHYS, V177, P3243, DOI 10.1007/s00024-020-02432-0
Ferracuti B, 2009, ENG STRUCT, V31, P1789, DOI 10.1016/j.engstruct.2009.02.035
Hamling IJ, 2014, J GEOPHYS RES-SOL EA, V119, P6080, DOI 10.1002/2014JB011084
Harris RA, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P229, DOI 10.1029/96GL00015
Hubert-Ferrari A, 2002, J GEOPHYS RES-SOL EA, V107, DOI 10.1029/2001JB000393
Isik E, 2016, CIVIL ENG PRESENT PR, P191
Isik E, 2020, APPL SCI-BASEL, V10, DOI 10.3390/app10207247
Isik E, 2016, PERIOD POLYTECH-CIV, V60, P37, DOI 10.3311/PPci.7661
Isik E, 2015, EARTH SCI RES J, V19, P129, DOI 10.15446/esrj.v19n2.50101
Isseven T, 2006, J ASIAN EARTH SCI, V28, P469, DOI 10.1016/j.jseaes.2005.11.012
Karasin IB, 2017, DUMF MUHENDISLIK DER, V8, P661
KING GCP, 1994, B SEISMOL SOC AM, V84, P935
Kutanis M, 2018, J EARTH SYST SCI, V127, DOI 10.1007/s12040-018-1004-6
Kutanis M, 2017, KSCE J CIV ENG, V21, P1793, DOI 10.1007/s12205-016-0758-0
Luo YF, 2017, INT J STEEL STRUCT, V17, P1157, DOI 10.1007/s13296-017-9023-8
Makropoulos K, 2012, NAT HAZARD EARTH SYS, V12, P1425, DOI 10.5194/nhess-12-1425-2012
MCKENZIE D, 1972, GEOPHYS J ROY ASTR S, V30, P109, DOI 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1972.tb02351.x
Mogi K, 1985, EARTHQUAKE PREDICTIO .
MOLNAR P, 1979, B SEISMOL SOC AM, V69, P115
Mulargia F, 2003, EARTHQUAKE SCI SEISM .
Nikoo M, 2017, STRUCT ENG MECH, V63, P237, DOI 10.12989/sem.2017.63.2.237
Okay AI, 1999, GEOL SOC SPEC PUBL, V156, P475, DOI 10.1144/GSL.SP.1999.156.01.22
Over S, 2011, ENVIRON EARTH SCI, V62, P313, DOI 10.1007/s12665-010-0525-3
PAPADOPOULOS GA, 1987, PURE APPL GEOPHYS, V125, P613, DOI 10.1007/BF00879575
Papazachos BC, 2014, B GEOFIS TEOR APPL, V55, P617, DOI 10.4430/bgta0117
PAPAZACHOS BC, 1993, PURE APPL GEOPHYS, V140, P593, DOI 10.1007/BF00876578
Papazachos BC, 1997, PURE APPL GEOPHYS, V149, P173, DOI 10.1007/BF00945167
PAPAZACHOS BC, 1992, PURE APPL GEOPHYS, V138, P287, DOI 10.1007/BF00878900
Papazachos BC, 2016, B GEOLOGICAL SOC GRE, P1222
Parsons T, 2000, SCIENCE, V288, P661, DOI 10.1126/science.288.5466.661
Paudyal H, 2008, J NEPAL GEOLOGICAL S, V38, P15
Pinho R, 2007, EARTHQ ENG STRUCT D, V36, P1347, DOI 10.1002/eqe.684
Pinho R, 2005, P 4 EUR WORKSH SEISM .
Pinho R, 2009, EARTHQ SPECTRA, V25, P143, DOI 10.1193/1.3050449
Richter, 1944, B SEISMOL SOC AM, V34, P185, DOI [DOI 10.2478/S11600-012-0032-X, DOI 10.1038/156371A0]
Sayil N, 2014, ACTA GEOD GEOPHYS, V49, P265, DOI 10.1007/s40328-014-0058-4
Sayil N, 2013, NAT HAZARDS, V66, P809, DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0532-7
Seng?r, 1979, J GEOL SOC LONDON, V136, P269, DOI [DOI 10.1144/GSJGS.136.3.0269, 10.1144/gsjgs.136.3.0269]
Sengor A.M.C, 1985, SEPM SPECIAL PUBLICA, V37, P227, DOI DOI 10.2110/PEC.85.37.0227
Sengor AMC, 2014, CAN J EARTH SCI, V51, P222, DOI 10.1139/cjes-2013-0160
Sengor AMC, 2005, ANNU REV EARTH PL SC, V33, P37, DOI 10.1146/annurev.earth.32.101802.120415
Shanker D, 1990, THESIS .
Shanker D., 2012, GEOSCIENCES, V2, P25, DOI DOI 10.5923/J.GEO.20120202.04
Shebalin NV, 1998, ETNUCT930087 .
Stein RS, 1997, GEOPHYS J INT, V128, P594, DOI 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb05321.x
TATAR O, 1995, TECTONOPHYSICS, V244, P251, DOI 10.1016/0040-1951(94)00241-Z
Tatar O., 1996, INT GEOL REV, V38, P692, DOI DOI 10.1080/00206819709465353
Tatar O, 2012, TECTONOPHYSICS, V518, P55, DOI 10.1016/j.tecto.2011.11.010
TBEC, 2018, TURK BUILD EARTHQ CO .
TSDC, 2007, TUR SEISM DEC COD .
Weisberg S., 1980, APPL LINEAR REGRESSI .
Yigitbas E, 2004, GEOL J, V39, P179, DOI 10.1002/gj.962
Zabci C, 2019, CAN J EARTH SCI, V56, P1218, DOI 10.1139/cjes-2018-0308
Zhang ZQ, 2008, SCI CHINA SER D, V51, P431, DOI 10.1007/s11430-008-0023-6