Sulu ve Kuru Tarım Alanlarında Buğday Verim Tahmininde Bitki Örtüsü İndekslerinin Kullanımı

Dünya nüfusunun artmasına paralel olarak tarım alanlarına olan ihtiyaç da artmaktadır. Son yıllarda tarım alanlarının ve bitki gelişiminin izlenmesi için geleneksel ve modern yöntemler sıklıkla kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada çok zamanlı uydu görüntülerinden elde edilen bitki örtüsü indeksleri yardımıyla buğday bitkisinin fenolojik evreleri incelenmiş ve bitki örtüsü indeksleri ile verim değerleri kullanılarak verim tahmin modeli geliştirilmiştir. Çalışmada Şanlıurfa ilinde bulunan Tarım İşletmeleri Genel Müdürlüğü (TİGEM) arazisinde bulunan buğday tarlalarından sulu tarım ve kuru tarım yapılan tarlalardan 5’er tane seçilmiştir. 2015-2016, 2016-2017 ve 2017-2018 sezonlarına ait ekim ile hasat tarihleri arasında belirli zaman aralıklarında alınan Landsat-8 ve Sentinel-2 uydu görüntülerinden üretilen NDVI ve SAVI indeksleri yardımıyla buğday bitkisinin gelişim süreçleri incelenmiştir. Ayrıca 3 yıla ilişkin NDVI, SAVI, GNDVI ve MSAVI değerleri ile TİGEM’den temin edilen verim değerleri birlikte değerlendirilerek verim tahmin modeli kurulmuştur. Oluşturulan model 2018-2019 sezonunda hem sulu hem de kuru tarlalarda uygulanarak doğruluk analizi yapılmıştır. Sonuçlar incelendiğinde elde edilen modelin sulu tarlalarda kuru tarlalara oranda daha yüksek başarı gösterdiği görülmüştür. Ayrıca hem sulu tarlada hem de kuru tarlada elde edilen model %80 in üzerinde bir doğruluk göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Uzaktan algılama, Verim tahmin modeli, Kışlık buğday verim tahmini, Fenolojik evre, Bitki örtüsü indeksi

Use of Vegetation Indices in Wheat Yield Estimation in Irrigated and Dry Agricultural Lands

The need for agricultural land is rising depending on the increasing e world population. Traditional and modern methods are frequently used to monitor agricultural land. In this study, the phenological stages of the wheat plant were examined with the help of vegetation indices obtained from multi-temporal and multispectral satellite images, and a yield estimation model was established by using vegetation indices and yield values. In the study, were selected five irrigated and five dry farming fields of the wheat in the land of the General Directorate of Agricultural Enterprises ( TİGEM) in Şanlıurfa province. The development processes of the wheat plant were examined with the help of NDVI and SAVI indices produced from Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 satellite images taken at certain time intervals between sowing and harvesting for the seasons 2015-2016, 2016-2017, and 2017-2018. In addition, the yield estimation model was established by evaluating the NDVI, SAVI, Green NDVI (GNDVI), and Modified SAVI (MSAVI) values for 3 years together with the yield values obtained from the TİGEM. Accuracy analysis was performed by applying the model created in both irrigated and dry fields in the 2018-2019 season. When the results were examined, it was seen that the obtained model showed higher success in irrigated fields compared to dry fields. In addition, the model obtained in both irrigated and dry fields showed an accuracy of over 80%.

Keywords:

Remote sensing, Yield estimation model, Yield estimation of winter wheat, Phenological stage, Vegetation index,

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