Sosyo-demografik Karakteristiklerin Turizm Talep Denklemi Üzerindeki Etkileri

Bu çalışma, turistlerin gelir ve eğitim düzeyleri, yaş grupları ve geliş amaçları ile temsil edilen sosyo-demografik özelliklerinin Türkiye’ye yönelik turizm talebi üzerinde herhangi bir etkisinin olup olmadığını ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Araştırmanın veri seti 2006-2017 döneminde Türkiye’ye gelen turistlerin %77.6’sını temsil eden 24 ülkeyi kapsamaktadır. Sosyo-demografik karakteristiklerine göre sınıflandırılan gelen turist sayıları, Yanlılığı Düzeltilmiş Kukla Değişkenli En Küçük Kareler tahmincisi yardımıyla ağızdan kulağa etki (önceki yılda gelen turist sayısı), gelir düzeyi, nispi ve ikame fiyat düzeyleri yanında ulaşım maliyetleri ve terörizm değişkenleri üzerinden tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışmanın ampirik bulguları, sosyo-demografik karakteristiklerine göre sınıflandırılan gelen turist sayılarının, yukarıda sıralanan açıklayıcı değişkenlerde meydana gelen değişimlere farklı dereceden tepkiler verdiğini ancak bu tepkilerin yönünün aynı olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Dolayısıyla Türk turizm politikalarının tasarımında turistlerin sosyo-demografik özelliklerinin dikkate alınmasına yer olmadığı sonucuna varılmıştır. Ayrıca, Türkiye’ye yönelik uluslararası turizm talebinin en önemli belirleyicilerinin, tüketici odaklı ve rekabetçi turizm politikaları izlenmesi gerektiğini ima eder şekilde ağızdan kulağa etki ile ikame fiyat düzeyi olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Turizm Talebi, Panel Veri Analizi, Kiviet Tahmincisi

Estimation of Tourism Demand Equation for Turkey: The Influences of Economic, Social and Political Factors

This study aims at revealing whether there is any influence of socio-demographic characteristics of tourists, which are proxied by levels of income and education, groups of age, and purposes of the visit, on tourism demand for Turkey. Dataset of the paper includes 24 countries representing 77.6% of total tourist arrivals to Turkey throughout period 2006-2017. The numbers of tourist arrivals classified by socio-demographic characteristics are regressed on word of mouth effect (i.e. number of tourist arrivals in previous year), level of income, and levels of substitute and relative prices as well as transportation cost and terrorism variables via Bias Corrected Least Squares Dummy Variable estimator. Empirical findings of the paper demonstrate that the numbers of tourist arrivals classified by socio-demographic characteristics give different responses to changes in the above-mentioned explanatory variables in magnitude, but sign of the responses are the same. Therefore, it is concluded that there is no need to take socio-demographic characteristics of tourists into consideration while Turkish tourism policies are designed. Besides, it is found out that the most important determinants of international tourism demand to Turkey are the word of mouth effect and the level of substitute price so as to imply that Turkey should follow customer-oriented and competitive tourism policies.

Keywords:

Tourism Demand, Panel Data Analysis, Kiviet Estimator,

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