Sadiq Mohammed SANUSİ, Invinder Paul SINGH, Muhammad Makarfi AHMAD

Nijerya'da "Hollanda Hastalığı"na Çözüm Olarak Kakao Üretimi

Bu araştırma, FAO veritabanından toplanan 56 yıllık verileri (1961-2017) kullanarak Nijerya'da kakao çekirdeği üretiminin ex-post ve ex-ante performansını belirlemiştir. Toplanan verileri analiz etmek için hem tanımlayıcı hem de çıkarımsal istatistikler kullanılmıştır. Ampirik kanıtlar, üretimin ana itici gücü olan yıllık verimlilik yıllık bazda arttıkça, ülkenin bugüne kadar bağımsız olarak kakao çekirdeği üretimindeki potansiyelini en üst düzeye çıkarmadığını gösterdi. Ayrıca, incelenen dönemlerin çoğu boyunca yıllık alanda çok az değişiklik olmuştur veya hiç değişmemiştir, yani bölgedeki durgunluk, ülkedeki kakao çekirdeği üretiminin üretim trendinin yavaşlamasına katkıda bulunmuştur. Kakao çekirdekleri üretiminin yıllık üretim artışındaki dalgalanma, teknolojik, kurumsal ve pazarlama risklerinden kaynaklanmıştır. Ülke, düşük verimlilik nedeniyle makul miktarda döviz kaybedeceğinden, öngörülen üretim eğilimi cesaret kırıcı. Bu nedenle, çalışma, ülke ekonomisini etkileyen gelir açığını artırmak için daha yüksek bir şansa sahip olduğundan, arzu edilen yüksek verimlilik elde etmek için politika yapıcılar tarafından özellikle iklim akıllı tarım olmak üzere üretim ve geliştirme yatırımlarına acil müdahale çağrısında bulunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Büyüme, Tahmin, Kararsızlık, Kakao çekirdekleri, Nijerya

Cocoa Production as a Viable Solution to Nigerian “Dutch Disease”

The present research determined the ex-post and ex-ante performance of cocoa beans production in Nigeria using dated data for 56 years (1961-2017) collected from FAO database. Both descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyze the collected data. The empirical evidence showed that the nation has not maximized its potential in cocoa beans production since independent to date as the annual productivity, which was the major driving force of production increased marginally year-in-year-out. In addition, there was little or no change in the annual area throughout most of the studied periods i.e. stagnation in area contributed to slowing down the production trend of cocoa beans production in the country. The fluctuation in the annual production growth of the cocoa beans production was caused by technological, institutional and marketing risks. The forecasted production trend is disheartening, as the nation will lose a reasonable amount of foreign exchange owing to low productivity. Therefore, the study calls for urgent intervention by the policymakers on production and development investments especially climate-smart agriculture so as to attain desirable high productivity as the crop stands a better chance to shore-up the revenue deficit affecting the nation’s economy.

Keywords:

Cocoa beans, Growth, Forecast, Instability, Nigeria,

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