Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Girişleri ve Yurtiçi Yatırım İlişkisi: Doğrusal Olmayan ARDL Yaklaşımı

Doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri, 1980’lerin ortalarından bu yana gelişmekte olan ülkelerde uluslararası ekonomik aktiviteleri hızla artırmaktadır. Ayrıca, doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri bu ülkelerde teknoloji transferinin ve sermaye birikiminin bir dış kaynağı olarak görülmektedir. Dolayısıyla doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişlerinin yurtiçi yatırımlar üzerindeki etkilerinin incelenmesi önem kazanmaktadır. Bu çalışma, doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri ile yurtiçi yatırımlar arasındaki ilişkiyi Türkiye için 1984-2018 dönemini kapsayan veriler kullanarak doğrusal olmayan ARDL yaklaşımı ile analiz etmektedir. Çalışmanın sonuçları, doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri ile yurtiçi yatırımlar arasında uzun dönemde asimetrik bir tamamlayıcılık ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Çalışmada doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişlerindeki pozitif bir değişimin (artışın) yurtiçi yatırımlar üzerindeki uzun dönem etkisinin, negatif bir değişimin (azalışın) etkisinden daha büyük olduğu bulunmuştur. Bu sonuçlar, yurtiçi yatırımların artırılması için politika yapıcıların yatırım ortamını iyileştiren ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımları daha çok çekmeyi sağlayan politikalar geliştirmesi gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Girişleri, Yurtiçi Yatırımlar, Asimetri, Doğrusal Olmayan ARDL Yaklaşımı

The Relationship Between Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Domestic Investment in Turkey: Nonlinear ARDL Approach

Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have rapidly increased the international economic activities in developing countries since the mid-1980s. Also, FDI inflows have been considered as an important external source of productivity increase, technology transfer, and capital accumulation in these countries. Thus, it becomes important to investigate the impact of FDI inflows on domestic investment. This study analyses the relationship between FDI inflows and domestic investment in Turkey throughout 1984-2018 by employing a nonlinear ARDL approach. This study reveals an asymmetric complementary relationship between FDI inflows and domestic investment in the long run. We find that the long-run impact of a positive change (increase) in FDI inflows on domestic investment is more significant than that of a negative change (decrease). This study suggests that policymakers should formulate policies that attract more FDI inflows and improve the investment climate to increase domestic investment.

Keywords:

Foreign Direct Investment Inflows, Domestic Investment, Asymmetry, Nonlinear ARDL Approach,

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