Türkiye’de reel döviz kuru ile dış ticaret arasındaki ilişkinin araştırıldığı bu çalışmada sırasıyla; “Durağanlık Testi (Birim Kök Analizi), VAR Modeli, Koentegrasyon (Eşbütünleşme) Analizi, Hata Düzeltme Modeli” metodları uygulanarak söz konusu iki olgu, 2003: 1 - 2010: 12 dönemini kapsayan aylık verilerle ampirik olarak incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre reel döviz kurları ile dış ticaret hacmi arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı tespit edilmiştir. Öte yandan, reel döviz kurlarından dış ticaret hacmine yönelik hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunurken, dış ticaret hacminden reel döviz kurlarına yönelik olarak yalnızca kısa dönemde bir nedensellik bulunduğu tespit edilmiştir.

As a result of the variation in exchange rate, the point that who are benefitted from the advantages of price and at what measurement has an importance in terms of that the exchange rate policies are able to show their expected effects on the balance of foreign trade. With moving from this point, the direction of causality between the exchange rate and rates of foreign trade is still continuing to be the subject of discussion in the literature. There are two alternative approach explaining this issue. The first of these is the approach of ”Standard Theory” putting forward that there is a causality relationship from the variations in the rates of foreign trade to the real exchange rate. According to the approach “Standard Theory”, as a result of an improvement occurring in the rates of foreign trade, via income transfer from foreign area to the domestic area, a rise can occur in the level of domestic price compared to that of foreign price, whereas the second approach is the approach of pass-through. According to the approach of pass- through, it is suggested that there is a cross directional relationship from the variations in exchange rates to the rates of foreign trade. On the other hand, the approach of interpreting dynamically the relationship between real variations emerging in the value of monetary unit and balance of foreign trade generated the hypothesis of J Curve. According to this hypothesis, while the balance of foreign trade is associated with the real variations occurring in local monetary unit in positive direction, when considering the long term, a negative directional relationship releases between two variables of interest. The hypothesis J Curve is considered as the prediction that in long term, effect of price will be dominant, effect of income in short term. The relationship exchange rate - foreign trade balance occupying a large place in the literature of economics comes into our face as an important issue in terms of countries, like Turkey, whose economies are developing. In this context, via industrialization toward export, in the counties targeting on integrating to the global markets, the policies of exchange rate have a highly importance. Together with slowly elimination of the effects of global crisis experienced in 2008, the issue that current accounts deficit is one of the most important problem of Turkey economy has been begun to be discussed again. Primarily, since current accounts deficit is resulted from foreign trade deficit, the situation of the relationship between real exchange rates and foreign trade deficit are questioned again. In Turkey, there is a general view in the direction that real exchange rates is the most important factor on real exchange rate. In the periods, in which a rise occurs in the real exchange rates (national currency revalues), due to weakening of international competition power, via experiencing a decrease in export, an increase of import (on the reason for becoming cheaper of import goods ) in return to this, that foreign trade deficit grows is accepted. In short, while accepting that there is a positive directional relationship between real exchange rates and import, it is assumed that a negative directional relationship between real exchange rates and export. However, the data post -2009 are purely examined, it can be observed that this situation does not always comes into effect in such a way, in some years, when the increases are experienced in real exchange rate (2004, 2005, 2007, 2010), rises in export figures can be observed in contrast to the expectations. In he literature, there are many studies, carried out in domestic and foreign areas, examining the relationship between exchange rates and export – import. When regarding to the studies, in which, for Turkey economy, the relationship exchange rate – foreign trade is examined in the process for the last two years in the context of the relationships of cointegration and causality, in the study carried out by Aktaş (2010) on Turkey, the relationships between real exchange rates and import and export were studied for the period 1989:1 – 2008:4 via VAR analysis, using the quarterly data. According to the empirical results of this study, it was concluded that any variation in real exchange rate did not have any significant influence on the foreign trade balance and that real exchange rate could not be used effectively in providing foreign trade balance. In the study, called “Econometric Analysis of The Relationship between Exchange Rate Variability and Export in Turkey: 1999 - 2008”, carried out by Altıntaş and Öz(2010), for the period 1999 – 2008, using the data quarterly, the relationship between the series of export, exchange rate variability, foreign income, relative export price, and foreign direct capital via cointegration method, while causality relationship between variables via error correction method. According to the results of long termed prediction obtained by VAR Method, it was found that there was a negative relationship between export and exchange rate variability and relative export price, a positive and significant relationship with foreign direct capital. Although foreign income variable was found to be in positive relationship, it was identified that this relationship was not significant. According to causality analysis, in the models of export, foreign direct investment, and foreign income, it was identified that there was a long termed causality relationship. When the studies of the last five years was regarded to in terms of foreign literature, in the study carried out by Aziz (2008) on the sample Bangladesh, the effect of reel effective exchange rate on foreign trade balance was studied via the tests of cointegration and causality. In the conclusion of study carried out by using the data of the period 1977 – 2005, in Bangladesh economy, for the period under consideration, real effective exchange rate affected the foreign trade balance positively and significantly for long and short terms. According to the results of causality test, it was concluded that real effective exchange rates was Granger reason of foreign trade balance. Yuen - Ling, Wai - Mun and Geoi - Mei (2008), for the period 1955 – 2006, in Malaysia economy, examined the relationship between real exchange rates and foreign trade balance in he frame of cointegration, technique, causality analysis, and VECM model. According to the findings obtained, a long termed relationship emerged between real exchange rate and foreign trade balance. Beside this, the results obtained from the study, in accordance with the condition Marshall – Lerner, show that devaluation will improve the trade balance in long term and that there is no J Curve in Malaysia. Zhe (2007), between China and its other trade partners, for the period 1997 – 2006, studied the relationship between foreign trade surplus and real effective exchange rate, using cointegration test. According to the findings obtained from the studies, it was concluded that there was long termed and stable relationship between real effective exchange rate and trade balance In this study, in which the relationship between real exchange rate and foreign trade, two phenomena of interest was empirically examined with monthly data covering the period 2003:1 – 2010:12, using the methods of Stability Test (Unit Root Analysis), VAR Model, Cointegration Analysis, and Error Correction Model. The data of real effective exchange rate and foreign trade volume (export + import) used in study were provided from Turkish Republic Central Bank Electronic Data Distribution System (EDDS). Firstly, the data of foreign trade data used were brought into real, using the series of Producer Prices Series (PPS). Then, following the stages such as seasonality and normal distribution tests, bring the series used in the study into stable, causality analysis was carried out. In summary, according to the findings obtained from this study, it was found that there was a cointegration relationship between real exchange rates and foreign trade volume. On the other hand, while finding a causality relationship in both short and long term from real exchange rate to foreign trade volume, it was found that there was only a short termed causality relationship from foreign trade volume to real exchange rates.