Dış Borçların Sürdürülebilirliği: ECOWAS Ülkeleri Örneği

Dış borçların sürdürülebilirliği, gelişmekte olan ülkeler ve özellikle de Ağır Borçlu Yoksul Ülkeler (HIPC) için önemli bir sorundur. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, Batı Afrika Devletleri Ekonomik Topluluğu (ECOWAS) için dış borçların sürdürülebilirliğini araştırmaktır. Sürdürülebilirliği test etmek için, kırılmasız ve kırılmalı birim kök testleri ile Johansen ve Juselius (1990) eşbütünleşme testi ve panel veri yöntemi (panel birim kök ve panel eşbütünleşme testleri) kullanılmıştır. Birim kök testlerinde toplam dış borcun ihracata oranının durağan olmaması, ECOWAS ülkelerinde dış borçların sürdürülemez olduğunu göstermiştir. Ayrıca, eşbütünleşme testleri toplam dış borç stoku ile ihracatın eşbütünleşik olmadığını, dolayısıyla tüm ülkelerde dış borçların sürdürülemez olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Elde edilen bulgulara dayalı bazı politika önerilerinde bulunulmuştur.

Sustainability of External Debt: The Case of ECOWAS Countries

External debt sustainability is a pressing issue in developing countries, particularly for Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC). The main purpose of this study is to investigate the sustainability of external debt in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To test external debt sustainability, unit root test and Johansen & Juselius (1990) co-integration and panel unit root and panel cointegration tests are employed. The unit root tests show that the total external debt to export ratio is not stationary in all countries verifying the unsustainability of external debts. Further, co-integration tests results based on time series and panel data indicate that total external debt stock and export are not co-integrated suggesting that external debt is not sustainable in all countries. Based on our results some policy recommendations are proposed.


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