Dış Borçların Sürdürülebilirliği: ECOWAS Ülkeleri Örneği

Dış borçların sürdürülebilirliği, gelişmekte olan ülkeler ve özellikle de Ağır Borçlu Yoksul Ülkeler (HIPC) için önemli bir sorundur. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, Batı Afrika Devletleri Ekonomik Topluluğu (ECOWAS) için dış borçların sürdürülebilirliğini araştırmaktır. Sürdürülebilirliği test etmek için, kırılmasız ve kırılmalı birim kök testleri ile Johansen ve Juselius (1990) eşbütünleşme testi ve panel veri yöntemi (panel birim kök ve panel eşbütünleşme testleri) kullanılmıştır. Birim kök testlerinde toplam dış borcun ihracata oranının durağan olmaması, ECOWAS ülkelerinde dış borçların sürdürülemez olduğunu göstermiştir. Ayrıca, eşbütünleşme testleri toplam dış borç stoku ile ihracatın eşbütünleşik olmadığını, dolayısıyla tüm ülkelerde dış borçların sürdürülemez olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Elde edilen bulgulara dayalı bazı politika önerilerinde bulunulmuştur.

Sustainability of External Debt: The Case of ECOWAS Countries

External debt sustainability is a pressing issue in developing countries, particularly for Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC). The main purpose of this study is to investigate the sustainability of external debt in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To test external debt sustainability, unit root test and Johansen & Juselius (1990) co-integration and panel unit root and panel cointegration tests are employed. The unit root tests show that the total external debt to export ratio is not stationary in all countries verifying the unsustainability of external debts. Further, co-integration tests results based on time series and panel data indicate that total external debt stock and export are not co-integrated suggesting that external debt is not sustainable in all countries. Based on our results some policy recommendations are proposed.

Kaynakça

Adamu, I. M., & Rasiah, R. (2016). External Debt and Growth Dynamics in Nigeria. African Development Review, 28(3), 291-303.

African Development Bank, (2019). West Africa Economic Outlook 2019: Macroeconomic Performance and Prospect, Regional Integration and Structural Transformation in West Africa, African Development Bank Group.

Anyanwu, J. C. (1993). Monetary Economics: Theory, Policy and Institutions (pp. 247-274). Hybrid Professional Publishers Ltd, Onitsha.

Arize, A. C. (2002). Imports and Exports in 50 Countries: Test of Cointegration and Structural Breaks. International Review of Economics & Finance, 11(1), 101-115.

Azgün, S. (2005). Dış Borç Sürdürülebilirliği: Zamanlararası Bütçe Kısıtı Testleri. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 5(2), 57–68.

Badia, M. M., Medas, P., Gupta, P., & Xiang, Y. (2020). Debt Is Not Free. IMF Working Paper, No. WP/20/1, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

Baduel, B., & Price, R. (2012). Evolution of Debt Sustainability Analysis in Low-Income Countries: Some Aggregate Evidence. IMF Working Paper, No. WP/12/167, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

Breitung, J., & Pesaran, M. H. (2008). Unit Roots and Cointegration in Panels. In: Matyas L, Sevestre P (Eds). The Econometrics of Panel Data (Third Edition), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp. 236-265.

Chowdhury, A. (2001). External Debt and Growth in Developing Countries: A Sensitivity and Causal Analysis. World Institute for Economic Research, Discussions Paper, (95), 1–26.

Clements, B., Bhattacharya, R., & Nguyen, T. (2003). External Debt, Public Investment, and Growth in Low- Income Countries, IMF Working Paper, No. WP/03/249, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.

Edo, S. E. (2002). The External Debt Problem in Africa: A Comparative Study of Nigeria and Morocco. African Development Review, 14(2), 221-236.

Feve, P., & Henin, P. Y. (1998). Une Evaluation Econometrique de La Soutenabilite de La Dette Exterieure des Pays en Developpement. Revue Economique, pp. 75-86.

Fofack, H. (2009). Causality between External Debt and Capital Flight in Sub-Saharan Africa. Policy Research Working Paper, No. WPS 5042, World Bank.

Folawewo, A.O. & Adeboje, O.M. (2017), Macroeconomic Determinants of Unemployment: Empirical Evidence from Economic Community of West African States. African Development Review, 29, 197-210.

Franca, N. C. (2017). A Comparative Study of Economic Growth in the West African States. Journal of World Economic Research, 6(6), 75-79.

Glasberg, D. S., & Ward, K. B. (1993). Foreign Debt and Economic Growth in the World System. Social Science Quarterly, 74(4), 703-720.

Hakkio, C., & M. Rush. (1991). Is the Budget Deficit too Large? Economic Inquiry. 29(3), 429-445.

Hansen, H. (2004). The Impact of External Aid and External Debt on Growth and Investment, in T. Addison, H. Hansen, and F. Tarp, eds., Debt relief for Poor Countries, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan for UNUWider, 134-157.

Holly S., Pesaran M. H., & Yamagata T. (2010). A Spatio-Temporal Model of House Prices in the US. Journal of Econometrics, (158), 160-173.

IMF, (2003). External Debt Statistics: Guide for Compilers and Users, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

IMF, (2017). Review of Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries: Proposed Reforms. IMF Policy Paper, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration – With Applications to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169–210.

Keating, M. O., & Keating, B. P. (2003). Measuring the Sustainability of Latin American External Debt. Applied Economics Letters, 10(6), 359-362.

Krugman, P. (1988). Financing vs. Forgiving a Debt Overhang. Journal of Development Economics, 29(3), 253-268.

Leachman, L. L. & Francis, B. B. (2000) Multicointegration analysis of the sustainability of foreign debt. Journal of Macroeconomics, 22(2), 207-227.

Lee J, Strazicich MC (2003). Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. Review of Economic Statistics 85(4), 1082-1089.

Llorca, M. (2017). External Debt Sustainability and Vulnerabilities: Evidence from a Panel of 24 Asian Countries and Prospective Analysis. ADBI Working Paper Series, (692), 1-24.

Loko, B., Mlachila, M., Nallari, R., &Kalonji, K. (2003). The impact of external indebtedness on poverty in low-income countries, IMF Working Paper, No. WP/03/61, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

Mensah, L. Bokpin, G. & Boachie-Yiadom, E. (2018) External Debts, Institutions and Growth in SSA, Journal of African Business, 19(4), 475-490.

Mensah, L., Allotey, D., Sarpong-Kumankoma, E., & Coffie, W. (2019). What Debt Threshold Hampers Economic Growth in Africa?. International Journal of Development Issues, 18(3).

Milbourne, R. (1997). Growth, Capital Accumulation and Foreing Debt. Economica, 64(253), 1–13.

Muhanji, S., & Ojah, K. (2011). Management and Sustainability of External Debt: A Focus on The Emerging Economies of Africa. Review of Development Finance, 1(3-4), 184–206.

Neaime, S., & Gaysset, I. (2017). Sustainability of Macroeconomic Policies in Selected MENA Countries: Post Financial and Debt Crises. Research in International Business and Finance, (40), 129-140.

N’Zue, F. F. (2020). Is External Debt Hampering Growth in the ECOWAS Region? International Journal of Economics and Finance, 12(4), 54-66.

Okafor, G. (2017). The Impact of Political Instability on the Economic Growth of ECOWAS Member Countries. Defence and Peace Economics, 28(2), 208-229.

Okafor, L. E., & Tyrowicz J. (2009). Foreign Debt and Domestic Savings in Developing Countries. Latin American Business Review, 9(3-4), 189-226.

Ouyang, A., & Rajan R. (2014). What Determines External Debt Tipping Points?. Journal of Macroeconomics, (39), 215-225.

Panizza, U. (2008). Domestic and External Public Debt in Developing Countries. Paper presented at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Discussion Papers 188. New York City.

Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, CESifo Working Paper Series No. 1229, University of Cambridge.

Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, (22), 265-312.

Phillips, P. C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit-Root in Time Series Regressions. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.

Presbitero, A. F. (2010). Total Public Debt and Economic Growth in Developing Countries. MoFiR Working Paper, No. 44, October.

Qureshi, I., & Liaqat, Z. (2020). The Long-Term Consequences of External Debt: Revisiting the Evidence and Inspecting the Mechanism Using Panel VARs. Journal of Macroeconomics, (63), 103184.

Sawada, Y. (1994). Are the Heavily Indebted Countries Solvent? Tests of Inter Temporal Borrowing Constraints, Journal of Development Economics, 45(2), 325-337.

Seck, D. (2016). Impact of Common Currency Membership on West African Countries, Enhanced Economic Growth, Diery Seck (ed.) Accelerated Economic Growth in West Africa, Advances in African Economic. Social and Political Development, pp. 3–18.

Siddique, A., Selvanathan, E. A., & Selvanathan, S. (2016). The Impact of External Debt on Growth: Evidence from Highly Indebted Poor Countries. Journal of Policy Modeling, 38(5), 874-894.

Stock, J. And Watson, M. (1988). Testing for Common Trends, Journal of the American Statistical Association 83, 1097-1107.

Sutherland, D., Hoeller P., Merola R., & Ziemann V. (2012). Debt and Macroeconomic Stability, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1003, OECD Publishing.

Tanna, S., Li, C., & De Vita, G. (2018). The Role of External Debt in the Foreign Direct Investment–Growth Relationship. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 23(4), 393–412.

Wamboye, E., & Tochkov, K. (2015). External Debt, Labour Productivity Growth and Convergence: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. The World Economy, 38(5), 856–877.

WDI (2019) http://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators/ (Erişim tarihi, 10. 12. 2019)

Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69(6), 709-748.

Kaynak Göster