AIRLINES AND RISK MANAGEMENT WITH FINANCIAL RATIOS: TURKISH AIRLINES CASE STUDY

Air transport which is the fastest mode of transport can be accepted as the gift of the 20th century to the world. As our global economy grows ever more linked, air transportation is the factor that brings people together. The growing air transportation in all over the world and espacially in Turkey has increased the importance of airline passenger and cargo operations and has brought intense competition in recent years. Under heavy competition, it is of utmost importance to have sustainable success of an ever-evolving and growing market by accurately assessing the financial performance and risks of businesses. Even though there are financial ratios which are generally used for services, manufacturing and raw materials sectors widely, there are a lot of metrics and indicators specific to the airline industry used to assess the financial status of airlines. Traditional ratio analysis is a frequently used for financial analysis and difeerent ratios are used to match the type of analysis that needs to be done. However, it can be benefical to group several indicators together into a statistical model. In this paper, after literature review, one of the most important financial risk evaluation models developed for airlines called Airscore model and also one of the most popular and practical model that is Altman’s bankruptcy prediction model (Z’’-score) are examined and its application with Turkish Airlines’ financial data is evaluated.   

___

  • Acar, 2000. "Bilgi Çağı ekonomisine Teorik Bir Yaklaşım", Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F Dergisi, 15, s 87-101.
  • Akkaya, 2004. “Finansal Rasyolar Yardımıyla Havayolları İşletmelerinin Performansının Değerlendirilmesi”, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F.Dergisi, Cilt 19, Sayı 1, s.3
  • Altman, 1968. “Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy”, The Journal of Finance, 23, 4: 589–609
  • Altman, Edward I. ve Hotchkiss, Edith(2006). Corporate Financial Distress and Bankruptcy: Predict and Avoid Bankruptcy, Anaylze and Invest in Distressed Debt. 3. bs. New Jersey : John Wiley and Sons., 2006
  • Clarke John-Paul, Lee Alex, Miller Bruno, “Is air transportation financially sustainable”, MIT International Center for Air Transportation, 2004
  • Dobbins, C., Boehlie M., Miller A., and F. Bernard (2000), "Financial Performance: Measurement and Analysis,” Purdue Agricultural Economics Report, March 2000,s. 14-18
  • Gerede, 2002. “Havayolu taşımacılığında küreselleşme ve havayolu işbirlikleri–THY AO.’da bir uygulama” (Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi). Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Eskişehir, s.15.
  • Gritta, Adrangi, Davalos, Bright, 2015. “A Review of the History of Air Carrier Bankruptcy Forecasting and the Application of Various Models to the US Airline Industry: 1980-2005”, s.3
  • Karaer, 2015. "Havayolu işletmeciliğinde yakıt maliyetleri ve yönetimi",Gazi Üniversitesi / Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü / İşletme Anabilim Dalı / İşletme Bilim Dalı, Doktora Tezi, Ankara.
  • Sayılgan, 1995. “Finansal Risk Yönetimi”. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 50(01)
  • McCollough, David, Wright Kardeşler İnsanlığın en Büyük Hayalini Gerçekleştirdiler: UÇTULAR, Lemur Yayınevi, ISBN: 9786059861045, İstanbul, 2016, s.10
  • Hauschild, 2013. Altman Z-Score: Not Just for Bankruptcy: From Z-Score to “Green Zone” Survivability, Amros Corporation
  • Topçu Bünyamin, “Finans Dışı Şirketlerde Kurumsal Risk Yönetimi”, Kadir Has Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Finans Ve Bankacılık Doktora Programı, Doktora Tezi, İstanbul, 2010, s.15
  • Url:http://investor.turkishairlines.com/documents/ThyInvestorRelations/download/faaliyet_raporu/2014_12_aylik_faaliyet_raporu.pdf> , alındığı tarih: 20.04.2017
  • Yıldız Ayşe, “Kurumsal Yönetim Endeksi ve Altman Z Skoruna dayalı Lojistik Regresyon Yöntemiyle Şirketlerin Kredi Derecelendirilmesi”, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, Y. 2014, C.19, S.3, s 71-89, 2014