FARKLI CEVAPLAYICI SEÇİM YÖNTEMLERİ FARKLI ARAŞTIRMA TAHMİNLERİ ÜRETİR Mİ? 2013 TNSA İÇİN CEVAPLAYICI SEÇİM YÖNTEMLERİNİN BİR SİMÜLASYONU

Cevaplayıcı seçim yöntemleri hanehalkı araştırmalarında görüşülmesi gereken cevaplayıcıyı seçmek için kullanılmaktadır. 2013 Türkiye Nüfus ve Sağlık Araştırması (2013 TNSA)’da, Uluslararası DHS Programı standartlarına göre görüşmeye uygun olan tüm kadınlar ile görüşülmüştür. Bu çalışma cevaplayıcı seçim yöntemlerinin simüle edilmesiyle, temel olarak “2013 TNSA’da üretilen temel göstergeler farklı cevaplayıcı seçim yöntemlerinin uygulanmasıyla nasıl değişirdi?” sorusunu sormaktadır. Cevaplayıcı seçim yöntemleri iki olasılıklı, iki yarı-olasılıklı ve dört olasılıklı olmayan yöntemi kapsamaktadır. Çalışmanın sonuçları, 2013 TNSA’da tüm kadınlarla görüşme yapılmasının uygun olduğunu, ancak farklı cevaplayıcı seçim yöntemlerinin uygulanmasıyla da araştırma sonuçlarına yakın tahminler üretilebileceğini göstermektedir. Seçilen değişkenler için ortalama sapma büyükleri güven aralıkları ile beraber düşünüldüğünde, olasılıklı ve yarı-olasılıklı seçim yöntemlerinin nüfus değerlerinin güven aralıklarından göz ardı edilebilir sapmalar ile daha iyi tahminler ürettiği görülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

cevaplayıcı seçimi, Kish yöntemi, olasılıklı yöntemler, simülasyon çalışması, hanehalkı araştırması, TNSA

DO DIFFERENT RESPONDENT SELECTION METHODS PRODUCE DIFFERENT SURVEY ESTIMATES? A SIMULATION OF WITHIN-HOUSEHOLD SELECTION METHODS FOR 2013 TURKEY DHS

Respondent selection procedures are utilized to choose a particular respondent in surveys. In the 2013 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (2013 Turkey DHS), all women who meet the eligibility criteria were interviewed according to standard regulations of the International DHS Program. Simulating the application of different methods, this study mainly asks “How would main indicators produced in 2013 Turkey DHS differ with the implementation of various respondent choice strategies?”. The selection procedures include two probabilistic methods, two quasi-probabilistic methods, and four non-probabilistic methods. This study advanced that although interviewing all eligible women in 2013 Turkey DHS appears to be reasonable, providing estimates that are close to survey results, is also conceivable through the execution of selection methods. When the mean of total deviations is considered with their confidence intervals, probabilistic and quasi-probabilistic selection techniques have produced much better estimates with minimal deviations from the confidence intervals of the population values.

Keywords:

respondent selection, Kish method, probabilistic methods, simulation study, household survey, Turkey DHS,

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