Türkiye'de hidroelektrik enerji potansiyeli araştırması ve doğal gazdan hidroelektriğe geçiş politikası

Bu çalışmada Türkiye'nin hidroelektrik potansiyeli literatür ve Devlet Su İşleri planları çerçevesinde araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen hidrolik potansiyele dayanarak iki senaryo oluşturulmuştur. İlk senaryoda, mevcut eğilimin sürdürülmesi durumunda elektrik üretimi için gerekli yatırımlar değerlendirilirken, ikinci senaryoda yeni hesaplanan 156 TWh'lik potansiyele sahip olan hidroelektrik santrallerin elektrik üretimindeki payının %35 olması durumu incelenmiştir. Türkiye'nin hidroelektrik potansiyelinin literatürde belirtilen 140 TWh değerinden %12 fazla yani 156 TWh olduğu ortaya konulmuştur. Senaryo 1'e göre elektrik üretiminde hidrolik kaynakların payı %25'ten %26'ya çıkarken doğal gazın payı değişmemiştir. Senaryo 2'ye göre doğal gazdan üretilen elektriğin payı %42'den %30'a düşerken, hidroelektriğin payı %26'dan %35'e yükselmiştir. Sonuçlar, Senaryo 2'nin Senaryo 1'e göre 2043 yılı için %32 daha karlı olacağını ve kazancın bugünkü değerinin yaklaşık 25 milyar dolar mertebesinde olacağını göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Enerji politikası, Yenilenebilir enerji kaynakları, Hidroelektrik

Investigation of hydropower energy potential and policy shift from natural gas to hydropower energy in Turkey

This study investigates the possible hydropower potential of Turkey, using literature and the General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works plans. Based on the obtained hydraulic potential, two scenarios are proposed. The first scenario is an electricity investment and share of electricity production continuing as a historical trend, while the second scenario is the increase in the share of hydropower plants in total electricity production as 35%, including a newly calculated potential of 156 TWh. The results show that the hydropower potential of Turkey increased from 140 to 156 TWh with a level of 12%. Scenario I shows that the total share of electricity production from hydropower changed from 25% to 26% but natural gas did not change. Scenario II shows that natural gas power production will decrease from 42% to 30% and hydropower production increase from 26% to 35% in 2023. The results also show that if Scenario II is applied, the cumulative present value of gain will be approximately 32% in 2043 with a savings of about $25 billion.

Keywords:

Energy policy, Renewable energy sources, Hydropower,

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