Tefide KIZILDENİZ, Taha Kutay AYDIN, Sidar GÖLER, Buse TUNA

İklim Değişikliğine Bağlı Faktörlerle (Yüksek CO2, Yüksek Sıcaklık ve Kuraklık) Değişen Yağış ve Sıcaklık İklim Modeli İlişkisinin Türkiye'de Buğday Üretimine Etkisi

Buğday (Triticum spp.) yaklaşık 50 ülkenin temel gıdası, uygun besin değeri, depolama ve işleme tesisleri sayesinde, bitki bazlı gıdaların dünya nüfusuna sağladığı toplam kalorinin yaklaşık %20'sini de sağlayarak, Türkiye'nin gıda güvenliğinde önemli bir yere sahiptir. Buğdayın verimi, kalitesi ve büyümesi çevre koşullarına bağlıdır. Bu nedenle buğday üretimi mevsimsel yağış dağılımı, yağış miktarı, sıcaklık ve kuraklık gibi iklim koşullarına bağlıdır. Küresel iklim değişikliğinin yol açtığı aşırı hava olaylarının sıklığı ve yoğunluğunun artmasıyla birlikte buğday üretimine yönelik riskler giderek belirginleşmiştir. Yapılan bir çalışmada, ortalama senaryoya göre Türkiye'de buğday veriminin 2100 yılına kadar yaklaşık %8 oranında azalacağı tahmin edilmektedir. En kötü senaryoya göre buğday üretiminin 2100 yılında ortalama %23 oranında azalması beklenmektedir. Bu sorunu çözmek için iklim değişikliğinin buğday üzerindeki etkilerine ilişkin uygun senaryolar geliştirilmelidir. İklim değişikliğine uyum stratejileri, düşük karbon emisyon teknolojileri ve kapasite geliştirme gibi stratejiler geliştirilebilir. Amacımız iklim değişikliğinin Türkiye'deki buğday üretimi üzerindeki etkisine dikkat çekmektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

İklim değişikliği, Buğday, Buğday verimi, Buğday büyüme ve gelişmesi, Triticum spp., Yüksek CO2, Yüksek sıcaklık, Kuraklık

Impact of Altered Precipitation and Temperature Climate Pattern Relation with Climate Change-Related Factors (High CO2, Elevated Temperature and Drought) on Wheat Production in Turkey

Wheat (Triticum spp.), the staple food of approximately 50 countries, due to its appropriate nutritional value, storage and processing facilities, also providing approximately 20% of the total calories provided by plant-based foods to the world population, has a relevant importance in the food security of Turkey. Wheat yield, quality, and growth are all affected by environmental factors. Therefore, wheat production is affected by climate factors such as seasonal precipitation distribution, precipitation amount, temperature, and drought. With the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events caused by global climate change, the risks to wheat production have become increasingly evident. In a study, it is estimated that wheat yield in Turkey will decrease by about 8% until 2100, according to the average scenario. According to the worst scenario, wheat production is expected to decrease by 23% on average in 2100. In order to solve this problem, appropriate scenarios should be developed regarding the effects of climate change on wheat. Strategies such as climate change adaptation strategies, low carbon emission technologies and capacity building can be developed. Our aim is to draw attention to the impact of climate change on wheat yield in Turkey.

Keywords:

Climate change, Wheat, Wheat yield, Wheat growth and development, Triticum spp., High CO2, Elevated temperature, Drought,

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