TÜRKİYE’DE BEKLENMEYEN EKONOMİK ve SİYASAL OLAYLARIN ENFLASYON ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ

Rational expectations approach has some radical policy implications. It implies that systematic policies cannot influence real variables even in the short run, since people would have already anticipated what the policies are going to be and acted upon those anticipations. Thus, except for unpredictable random shocks, steady-state equilibrium always prevail and systematic monetary changes produce no suprises, no disappointed expectations, no transitory impacts on real economic activity. Ta have an impact on output and employment the authorities must be able to create a divergence between actual and expected inflation. Rational agents can use past observations on the behavior of the authorities to predict future policy moves. When stabilization actions do occur, they will have no impact on real variables since they will have been discounted and neutralized in advance. In this study, we analyse how was affected inflation in Turkey from both random shocks and unanticipated policy actions, within the framework of determined above.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Enflasyon, Ekonomik ve siyasal olayların enflason üzerindeki etkisi, Rasyonel beklentiler kuramı

PDF

___

[1] MUTH, John F., "Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements", Econometrica, Vol. 29, July 1961, ss.315-335.
[2] LUCAS, Robert E. Jr., "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Trade-offs", The American Economic Review, Vol. 63, 1973, ss.326-334.
[3] LUCAS, Robert E. Jr., "Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique", The Phillips Curve and the Labor Market. Edited by K. Brunner, A. Meltzer, Vol. 1, Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy, Amsterdam, North Holland, 1976, ss.19-46.
[4] FISHER, Douglas, Money Demand and Monetary Policy, Harvester Wheatsheaf, Exeter, 1939, ss.165-163.
[5] HUMPHREY, Thomas M., "Some Recent Developments in Phillips Curve Analysis", Essays on Inflation, Fifth Edition, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Virginia, January 1986, ss.119-127.
[6] HUMPHREY, Thomas M., From Trade-offs to Policy Ineffectiveness: A History of the Phillips Curve, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Virginia, October 1986, ss..20-26.
[7] SARGENT, Thomas .J., "Rational Expectations", The New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance, Edited by P.. Newman, M. Milgate, J. Eatwell, Vol. 3, The Macmillan Press, 1994, ss.281-285.
[8] GUJARATI, Damodar N., Basic Econometrics, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1994, s.214.