PELİN VAROL İYİDOĞAN

Merkez ve Doğu Avrupa ülkelerinde bütçe dengesi ve cari işlemler dengesi ilişkisi: Ekonometrik bir inceleme

Çalışmanın amacı Merkez ve Doğu Avrupa ülkeleri için bütçe dengesi ve cari işlemler dengesi arasındaki ilişkinin ampirik olarak araştırılmasıdır. Bu kapsamda analiz yöntemi olarak Zivot-Andrews (1992) birim kök testi, Pesaran vd. (2001) sınır testi ve Toda ve Yamamato (1995) nedensellik analizi kullanılmıştır. Çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlara göre; i) Bulgaristan için çift yönlü nedensellik söz konusudur. ii) Letonya için cari işlemler dengesinden bütçe dengesine doğru nedensel bir ilişki geçerlidir. iii) Hırvatistan, Macaristan, Litvanya ve Slovenya için nedensellik bütçe dengesinden cari işlemler dengesine doğru olmaktadır. iv) Örneklemdeki diğer ülkeler için iki değişken arasında nedensel bir ilişki bulunmamaktadır.

The budget balance and current account balance relationship in central and Eastern European economies: An econometric investigation

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between the budget and the current account balance for Central and Eastern European countries emprically by means of the Zivot-Andrews (1992) unit root test, Pesaran et al. (2001) bounds testing procedure and Toda and Yamamato (1995) causality analysis. The findings of this study are; i) the evidence of the bilateral causality is found for Bulgaria, ii) a causal relationship from current account balance to the budget balance exists for Latvia, iii) the causality runs from the budget balance to the current account balance in Croatia, Hungary, Lithuania and Slovenia, iv) no causal relationship is found for the other sample countries.

PDF

___

Abell, J.D. (1990), Twin Deficits During the 1980s: An Empirical Investigation, Journal of Macreconomics, 12(1), 81-96.

Afonso, A. ve Rault, C. (2009), Bootstrap Panel Granger-Causality Between Government Budget and External Deficits for the EU, CESifo Working Paper, 2581.

Anoruo, E. ve Ramchander, S.(1998), Current Account and Fiscal Deficits: Evidence From Five Developing Economies of Asia, Journal of Asian Economics, 9(3), 487-501.

Aristovnik, A. (2005), Public Sector Stability and Balance of Payments Crises in Selected Transition Economies, Democratic Governance for the XXI Century: Challenges and Responses in CEE Countries, May 2005.

Aristovnik, A. (2006), The Determinants and Excessiveness of Current Account Deficits in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, William Davidson Institute Working Paper, 827.

Bachman, D.D. (1992), Why Is the Current Account Deficit So Large? Evidence from Vector Autoregressions, Southern Economic Journal, 59(2), 232-240.

Bagnai, A. (2006), Structural Breaks and the Twin Deficit Hypothesis, International Economics and Economic Policy, 3, 137-155.

Baharumshah, A.Z. ve Lau, E. (2009), Structural Breaks and the Twin Deficits Hypothesis: Evidence from East Asian Countries, Economics Bulletin, 29(4), 2517-2524.

Banerjee, A., Dolado, J.J. ve Mestre, R. (1998), Error-Correction Mechanism Tests for Co-integration in a Single-Equation Framework, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19(3), 267-283.

Beetsma, R., Giuliodori, M. ve Klaassen, F. (2008), The Effects of Public Spending Shocks on Trade Balances and Budget Deficits in the European Union, Journal of the European Economic Association,6(2-3), 414-423.

Daly, V. ve Siddiki, J.(2009), The Twin Deficits in OECD Countries: Cointgration Analysis with Regime Shifts, Applied Economics Letters, 16(11),1155-1164.

Darrat, A.F. (1988),Have Large Budget Deficits Caused Rising Trade Deficits, Southern Economic Journal, 54(4), 879-887.

Dibooğlu, S. (1997), Accounting for US Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Investigation, Applied Economics, 29, 787-793.

Enders, W. ve Lee, B.S. (1990), Current Account and Budget Deficits: Twins or Distant Cousins, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 22(3), 373-381.

Engle, R.F. ve Granger, C.W.J. (1987), Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing, Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.

Fidrmuch, J. (2003), The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle and Twin Deficits in Selected Countries, Economics of Planning, 36, 135-152.

Ganchev, G.T. (2010), The Twin Deficit Hypothesis: The Case of Bulgaria, Financial Theory and Practice, 34(4), 357-377.

Ganchev, G.T., Stavrova, E. ve Tsenkov, V. (2012), Testing the Twin Deficit Hypothesis: The Case of Central and Eastern European Countries, International Journal of Contemporary Economics and Administrative Sciences, 2(1), 1-21.

Grier, K. ve Ye, H. (2009), Twin Sons of Different Mothers: The Long and the Short of the Twin Deficits Debate, Economic Inquiry, 47(4), 625-638.

Hatemi, J.-A.ve Shukur, G. (2002), Multivariate-based Causality Tests of Twin Deficits in the US, Journal of Applied Statistics, 29(6), 817-824.

Herrmann, S. ve Jochem, A. (2005), Determinants of Current Account Developments in the Central and East European EU Member States- Consequences for the Enlargement of the Euro Area, Bundesbank Discussion Papers, Series 1: Economic Studies 32/2005.

Islam, F.M. (1998), Brazils Twin Deficits: An Empirical Examination, Atlantic Economic Journal, 26(2), 121-129.

Johansen, S. (1991), Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegrating Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models, Econometrica, 59(6), 1551-1580.

Johansen, S. (1995), Likelihood -Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Katırcıoğlu, S.T., Fethi, S. ve Fethi, M.D. (2009), Twin Deficits Phenomenon in Small İslands: An Empirical Investigation By Panel Data Analysis, Applied Economics Letters, 16(15), 1569-1573.

Ketenci, N. ve Uz, İ. (2010), Determinants of Current Account in the EU: The Relation Between Internal and External Balances in the New Members, MPRA Paper, 27466.

Kim, C.-H.ve Kim, D. (2006), Does Korea Have Twin Deficits?, Applied Economic Letters, 13(10), 675-680.

Kim, S. ve Roubini, N. (2008), Twin Deficit or Twin Divergence? Fiscal policy, Current Account and Real Exchange Rate in the US?, Journal of International Economics, 74(2), 362-383.

Kouassi, E., Mougoue, M. ve Kymn, K.O. (2004), Causality Tests of the Relationship Between the Twin Deficits, Empirical Economics, 29(3), 503-525.

Kulkarni, K.G. ve Erickson, E.L. (2001), Twin Deficit Revisited: Evidence From India, Pakistan and Mexico, The Journal of Applied Business Research, 17(2), 97-104.

Latif-Zaman, N. ve DaCosta, M.N. (1990), The Budget Deficit nd the Trade Deficit: Insights Into This Relationship, Eastern Economic Journal, 16(4), 349-354.

Leachman, L.L. ve Francis, B. (2002), Twin Deficits: Appariton or Reality?, Applied Economics, 34(9), 1121-1132.

Magazzino, C. (2012), The Twin Deficits Phenomenon: Evidence from Italy, Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 33(3), 65-80.

Marinheiro, C.F. (2008), Ricardian Equivalence, Twin Deficits, and the Feldstein- Horioka Puzzle in Egypt, Journal of Policy Modeling, 30(6), 1041-1056.

Mohammadi, H. ve Skaggs, N.T. (1996), Fiscal Policy and Trade Deficits: A Broad Perspective, Southern EconomicJournal, 62(3), 675-689.

Mukhtar, T., Zakaria, M. ve Mehboob, A. (2007), An Empirical Investigation for the Twin Deficit Hypothesis in Pakistan, Journal of Economic Cooperation, 28(4), 63-80.

Normandin, M. (1999), Budget Deficit Persistence and the Twin Deficit Hypothesis, Journal of International Economics, 49(1), 171-193.

Onafowora, O.A. ve Owoye, O. (2006), An Empirical Investigation of Budget and Trade Deficits: The Case of Nigeria, The Journal of Developing Areas, 39(2), 153-174.

Papadogonas, T. ve Stournaras, Y. (2006), Twin Deficits and Financial Integration in EU Member-States, Journal of Policy Modeling, 28(5), 595-602.

Pesaran, M.H., Shin,Y. ve Smith, R.J. (2001), Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.

Rahman, M. ve Mishra, B. (1992), Co-integration of US Budget and Current Account Deficits: Twins or Strangers?, Journal of Economics and Finance, 16(2), 119-127.

Rosensweig, J.A. ve Tallman E.W. (1993), Fiscal Policy and Trade Adjustment: Are The Deficits Really Twins?, Economic Inquiry, 31(4), 580-594.

Siddiqui, A.H. (2009), Does Fiscal Deficit Influence Trade Deficit?, Economic Review, July-August.

Stournaras, C.F. (2013), Twin Deficits in Greece: Theory and Evidence from the Last Drachma Journey, SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2205047 veya http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2205047 (Erişim Tarihi: 27.06.2013)

Summers, L.H. (1988),Tax Policy and International Competitiveness, J. Frankel (der.), International Aspects of Fiscal Policies içinde, Chicago: Chicago University Press, 349-375.

Toda, H.Y. ve Yamamato, T. (1995), Statistical Inference in Vectot Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes, Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250.

Vamvoukas, G.A. (1999), The Twin Deficits Phenomenon: Evidence from Greece, Applied Economics, 31(9), 1093-1110.

Varol İyidoğan, P. (2011), İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi: Türkiye Deneyimi, Hacettepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü İktisat Anabilim Dalı, Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi.

Zaidi, A. ve Rejniak, M. (2010), Fiscal Policy and Sustainability in View of Crisis and Population Ageing in Central and Eastern European Countries, European Centre Vienna, Policy Brief Series.

Zivot E. ve Andrews, D.W.K. (1992), Further Evidence of the Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.