Examining The Performance of A Value Investing Heuristic: Evidence From The S&P/Tsx 60 From 2001-2011

Examining The Performance of A Value Investing Heuristic: Evidence From The S&P/Tsx 60 From 2001-2011

Heuristics are useful practical tools for cutting through the complex confluence of uncertainty, limited information and bounded rationality. We develop a simple heuristic for making value investing decisions based on profitability, financial stability, susceptibility to bankruptcy, and margin of safety. As an empirical test, we apply this heuristic to the S&P/TSX 60 group of companies of the Toronto Stock Exchange. Analysis of the data shows that the portfolio that is picked from the S&P/TSX 60 by the heuristic has desirable characteristics required of value portfolios. Thus the heuristic can be viewed as a reliable set of value investing decision criteria.

___

  • Altman, E. I. (1968) Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy, The Journal of Finance,23, 189-209.
  • Athanassakos, G. (2009) Value versus Growth Stock Returns and the Value Premium: The Canadian Experience 1985-2005, Canadian Journal of Administrative Science, 26, 109-121.
  • Athanassakos, G. (2011) Do Value Investors Add Value?,The Journal of Investing, 20, 86-100.
  • Bauman, W. S., Conover, C. M., and Miller, R. E. (1998) Growth versus Value and Large-Cap versus Small-Cap Stocks in International Markets, Financial Analysts Journal, 54, 75-89.
  • Buffett, W. (1984) TheSuperinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville, Hermes, 4-15.
  • Buffett, W. (1988) Chairman’s Letter to the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway, Available at http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1988.html (Accessed on December 31, 2012)
  • Capaul, C., Rowley, I., and Sharpe, W. F. (1993) International Value and Growth Stock Returns, Financial Analysts Journal, 49, 27-36.
  • Chan, L. K. C., Hamao, Y., and Lakonishok, J. (1991) Fundamentals and Stock Returns in Japan, The Journal of Finance, 46, 1739-1789.
  • Chan, L. K. C. and Lakonishok, J. (2004) Value and Growth Investing: Review and Update, Financial Analysts Journal, 60, 71-86.
  • Chan, L. K. C., Karceski, J., Lakonishok, J. (2000) New Paradigm or Same Old Hype in Equity Investing?,Financial Analysts Journal, 56, 23-36.
  • Chen, N., and Zhang, F. (1998) Risk and Return of Value Stocks, Journal of Business, 71, 5015
  • Dhatt, M. S., Kim, Y. H. and Mukherji, S. (1999) The Value Premium for Small-Capitalization Stocks, Financial Analysts Journal, 55, 60-68.
  • Fama, E. F., and French, K. R. (1992) The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns, The Journal of Finance, 47, 427-465.
  • Fama, E. F., and French, K. R. (1998) Value vs. Growth: The International Evidence, The Journal of Finance, 53, 1975-1999.
  • Fama, E. F., and French, K. R. (1996) Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies, The Journal of Finance, 51, 55-84.
  • Graham, B. (1949) The Intelligent Investor, Revised Edition, HarperBusiness Essentials, New York.
  • Graham, B. (1976) A Conversation with Benjamin Graham, Financial Analysts Journal, 32, 20
  • Ibbotson, R. G. and Riepe, M. W. (1997) Growth vs. Value Investing: And the Winner Is..., Journal of Financial Planning, 10, 64-71.
  • Graham, B., and Dodd, D. (1934) Security Analysis, The Classic 1934 Edition, McGraw-Hill, New York.
  • Kwag, S. W. A., and Lee, S. W. (2006) Value Investing and the Business Cycle, Journal of Financial Planning, 19, 64-71.
  • La Porta, R., Lakonishok, J., Shleifer, A., and Vishny, R. (1997) Good News for Value Stocks: Further Evidence on Market Efficiency, The Journal of Finance, 52, 859-874.
  • Lakonishok, J., Shleifer, A., and Vishny, R. W. (1994) Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk, The Journal of Finance, 49,1541-78.
  • Oppenheimer, H. R. (1984) A Test of Ben Graham's Stock Selection Criteria, Financial Analysts Journal, 40, 68-74.
  • Piotroski, J. D. (2000) Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information to Separate Winners from Losers, Journal of Accounting Research, Supplement, 38, 1-41.
  • Rozeff, M. S., and Zaman, M. A. (1998) Overreaction and Insider Trading: Evidence from Growth and Value Portfolios, The Journal of Finance, 53, 701-716.
  • Standard & Poor’s (2011) S&P/TSX 60, Available at http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-tsx-60/en/us/?indexId=spcadntx--caduf--pca-l- (Accessed on December 31, 2012)