Hakan YILDIZ, A. Yusuf YÜKSEL, Ümit ÖZDEMİR

Fosil Kaynak Tüketiminin Karbon Ayak İzine Etkisi: Türkiye’den Kanıtlar

Küresel iklim değişikliği, son yıllarda yaşanan sağlık ve çevre krizlerinin en önemli nedenidir. Hızla artan enerji talebinin, yüksek oranda fosil kaynak tüketiminden (FKT) karşılanması, bu problemin ana kaynağıdır. Türkiye karbon ayak izi (KAİ) verilerindeki artış bu tüketimin en önemli göstergesidir. Bu çalışmada 1971-2017 dönemi, KAİ verileri ve FKT arasındaki ilişki Johansen eşbütünleşme analizi ile incelenmiştir. Yapılan test istatistiklerinin sonuçlarına göre iki değişken arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin olduğu görülmüştür. Aynı zamanda bu ilişkinin kısa dönemde etkilerini görmek için hata düzeltme modeli uygulanmış ve test sonucunda hata düzeltme değeri de anlamlı çıkmıştır. Böylelikle iki değişken arasında uzun dönemli ilişkinin tutarlı olduğu belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca eşbütünleşme testinin sınaması yapılmış elde edilen sonuçlar ile iki değişken arasında kurulan eşbütünleşmenin doğru olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak FKT’nin, KAİ’de neden olduğu artış istatistiksel olarak da anlamlı bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Fosil kaynak tüketimi, iklim değişikliği, Johansen eşbütünleşme testi, karbon ayak izi

The impact of the Fossil Resource Consumption on the Carbon Footprint: Evidence from Turkey

Global climate change is the most important reason for the health and the environmental crises which are experienced in recent years. The main source of this problem is that the rapidly increasing energy demand is supplied by consumption highly of fossil resources (FRC). The increase of the data on Turkey carbon footprint (CK) is the most significant indicator for this consumption. In this study, the relationship between CK data and FRC for the period of 1971-2017 was examined by the Johansen cointegration analysis. According to these results of the test statistics, it was seen that there was a long-term relationship between the two variables. At the same time, the error correction model was applied to view in the short-term effects of this relationship, and the error correction value was discovered to be meaningful at the end of the test. Thus, it was determined that the long-term relationship between the two variables was consistent. Besides, the cointegration test was examined then, it was achieved that the cointegration between its result and the two variables were correct. As a result, the increase of the CK is caused by the consumption of the FRC was discovered to be statistically meaningful.

Keywords:

Carbon footprint, climate change, fossil resource consumption, Johansen cointegration test,

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