ABD- Türkiye Emtia Ticareti ve J-Eğrisi Fenomeni: 23 Sektörden Kanıt

Bu makale, reel döviz kurunun Türkiye’nin ticaret dengesi üzerindeki etkilerini toplam ve dağınık düzeyde incelemektedir. 1989-2017 yılları arasında 23 sektörden oluşan bir veri kümesi analiz edilmiştir. Doğrusal ARDL sonuçları, toplam düzeyde J eğrisi fenomeni belirtisi olmadığını doğrulamaktadır. Bununla birlikte, Ulaştırma, Tekstil ve Giyim ve Maden ve Metal endüstrilerinde dağınık düzeyde doğrusal ARDL sonuçları. J eğrisi fenomeni için destek sağlamaktadır. Ayrıca, Türk lirasındaki değer kaybı, uzun vadede çoğu sektör üzerinde olumlu etkiye sahiptir. Bu sonuçlar politika yapıcılara değer düşürme politikasının bazı ticaret ortaklarına karşı ihracatı artırabileceğini ve yurtiçi çıktıları teşvik edebileceğini vurgulamaktadır. Öte yandan, Türk lirasındaki değer kaybının ticari çıkarlar karşısındaki olumsuz sonuçları dikkatle değerlendirilmelidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Reel Faiz Oranı, Çift Taraflı Ticaret, J-Eğrisi, Türkiye

U.S.-Turkey Commodity Trade and J-Curve Phenomenon: Evidence from 23 Industries

This paper empirically explores the effects of real exchange rate on Turkey’s balance of trade at aggregate and dis-aggregate level. A dataset of 23 industries is analyzed over 1989-2017. Linear ARDL results confirm that there is no sign of J-curve phenomenon at aggregate level. However, linear ARDL results at dis-aggregate level support for J-curve phenomenon in Transportation, Textiles & Clothing and Ores & Metals industries. Furthermore, Turkish lira depreciation has favorable effect on most of the industries in the long-run. These results highlight to policymakers that depreciation policy could increase the exports against some trade partners and promote the domestic outputs. Whilst, one should carefully assess the adverse consequences of Turkish lira depreciation against trade benefits.

Keywords:

Real Exchange Rate, Bilateral Trade, J-curve, Turkey,

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