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Türkiye'de İşsizlik Histerisi: Fourier Fonksiyonlu Durağanlık Sınamaları

İşsizlik olgusu, meydana getirdiği iktisadi, sosyal, politik ve psikolojik sonuçlar itibariyle iktisat politikası belirleniminde her ekonominin öncelikleri arasındadır. İşsizliğin nedenleri ve yarattığı sonuçlar bir yana, yapısal bir unsur olarak işsizlikte histerinin var olup olmadığı konusu bu anlamda cevap aranması gereken sorulardandır. Histeri etkisi, geçici şokların kalıcı etkiler bıraktığı durumları ifade etmek için kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışma da Friedman'ın doğal oran hipotezine karşılık işsizlikte histeri etkisinin, bir nevi işsizlikte kalıcı etkilerin varlığının Türkiye'de 2005-2017 dönemi aylık işsizlik verileriyle sınanmasını amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda standart birim kök sınamalarına ek olarak, Becker, Enders & Lee (2006) ile Enders & Lee (2012) tarafından geliştirilen Fourier birim kök sınamaları araç olarak kullanılmaktadır. Becker, Enders & Lee (2006) Fourier ve standart ADF durağanlık sınama sonuçları serilerin durağan olmadığına işaret ettiğinden, Türkiye'de işsizliğin ortalamaya dönme eğiliminde olmadığını, işsizlik histerisinin var olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler:

İşsizlik Histerisi, NAIRU, Fourier Yaklaşımı, Durağanlık Sınamaları

Unemployment Hysteresis in Turkey: Stationarity Tests with Fourier Functions

Unemployment is one of the most privilaged topics of an economy in the process of policy implication as of social, political and psychological reflections it generates. Apart from the factors leading to unemployment and the adverse outcomes it creates, the critical question of whether hysteresis effect as a structural feature exists or not is also should be answered in that context. Hysteresis phenomenon is a situation in which transitory shocks have permanent effects on an indicator. The present paper aims to test hysteresis in unemployment/persistency in unemployment of Turkey in response to natural rate hypothesis of Friedman with monthly data of 2005-2017. For this purpose, in addition to standard stationarity tests, stationarity tests with Fourier functions developed by Becker, Enders and Lee (2006) and Enders and Lee (2012) are used as instruments. Since Becker, Enders and Lee (2006) Fourier and ADF standard unit root test results show that series are not stationary, the results also provide additional empirical evidence of the hysteresis but not NAIRU hypothesis in Turkey.

Keywords:

Unemployment Hysteresis, NAIRU, Fourier Approximation, Stationarity Tests,

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